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Fast forward, and the Grizzlies are now in the early stages of a rebuild. Ja Morant and Santi Aldama are the only remaining players from the previous core, and they seem like they could be on the way out as well. They have a strong collection of talented young players who could become high-level starters and role players. They now have an opportunity to land a new franchise player with the third-overall pick in this year’s draft, and will have plenty more opportunities to do so with their massive surplus of first-round picks in future seasons.

Salary cap situation

The Grizzlies are entering the offseason with 17 players on standard contracts and two two-way players, including their two first-round picks. They will need to get down to 15 players before the regular season starts, so they’ve got time to make roster decisions. However, they can only carry a maximum of 21 players during the offseason. This could force earlier decisions if they make trades where they take back more players than they send out.

They have $163.5 million in total salaries between their active payroll and dead money. This leaves them just under the $165 million salary cap, but they won’t be a cap space team. They’ll have more spending power as an over-the-cap team and should be able to exhaust most of their flexibility without exceeding the $200.5 million luxury tax line. They should remain below that threshold as a rebuilding team.

Teams above the cap and below the $209.1 million first apron can take in more salary in a trade than they send out. They can also acquire free agents via sign-and-trade and have access to the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and $5.5 million bi-annual exception. They could also use trade exceptions created in the previous season, including a massive $28.9 million trade exception. They created it by trading Jaren Jackson Jr. and could take back up to $29.1 million in salary with it.

As an example, the Grizzlies could use the entirety of their trade exception and the $15 million mid-level exception as a trade exception and remain below the tax line. They would then be able to make additional trades that significantly increase their payroll afterward due to their fluid payroll situation. They will presumably create more tax room when they address their roster crunch, such as by waiving a non-guaranteed player or trading a veteran.

For example, they could waive Taj Gibson and clear $3.8 million in tax room. They could then re-sign him to a one-year veteran minimum contract that would count as $2.5 million against the cap, assuming they have a roster spot available for him. They could also potentially buy out Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. His $21.6 million salary is unpalatable for contending teams. A buyout could save the Grizzlies an additional $3.8 million, which is his respective minimum salary for the upcoming season.

Last month, Brandon Clarke tragically passed away at just 29 years old. He was beloved by his current and former Grizzlies teammates, the organization, and the Memphis community. We extend our deepest condolences to his family and loved ones.

At some point, the Grizzlies will waive Clarke for procedural purposes and to officially open a roster spot. With that in mind, we’ll operate under the assumption that his $12.5 million salary will no longer be on the team’s books for next season.

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That trade still hasn’t resulted in the lottery luck the Nets were likely hoping for. They are still in the early stages of a rebuild and don’t seem close to becoming a sustainable playoff team anytime soon. They are now entering a season in which they no longer have much incentive to lose since the Rockets still have the right to swap for their 2027 first-round pick. The new 3-2-1 lottery reform would also reduce incentives to race to the bottom of the standings.

The Nets are now faced with the challenge of developing a young team in a year where they likely won’t end up in the lottery. Do they use their cap space to acquire veterans now that could make them somewhat respectable? Or do they continue to accumulate assets with negative value salaries attached? The answer is likely somewhere in the middle, where they add to their draft surplus while adding impactful players from teams needing to reduce payroll.

Salary cap situation and draft picks

It’s worth noting that the Nets had $60 million in cap space last season but didn’t spend all of it. They still have $3.9 million remaining that they could use between now and June 30, the last day of the current salary cap year. They could use it to sign a free agent or trade for a player under contract.

The Nets are set to enter the 2026 offseason with 14 players on the roster totaling $131.6 million in salaries. They will operate as a cap space team, with a maximum slot available of $41.25 million. Their actual cap space figure remains fluid with several players on team options and non-guarantees they still need to make decisions on.

Their total salaries are $33.4 million below the $165 million salary cap, so they will have at least that amount to spend. They can access that cap space by renouncing all of their free agent cap holds, including Ochai Agbaji’s $19.15 million hold. All five of the Nets’ free agents are eligible for restricted free agency, so renouncing their rights would make them unrestricted. Brooklyn could still re-sign them with its cap space, the $9.4 million room mid-level exception, or minimum contracts.

In addition to renouncements, the Nets could get up to a maximum of $47.9 million in cap space by declining team options and waiving non-guaranteed players. That would include the $6.25 million team options for Day’Ron Sharpe and Ziaire Williams. They could decline both players and re-sign them to new deals. They could also decline both to maximize cap space, then re-sign one of them with the $9.4 million room mid-level exception afterward.

The Nets could also look to renegotiate Michael Porter Jr.’s contract and extend him. That would require cap space to increase his 2026-27 salary. When you factor that in, along with possible new deals for Sharpe and Williams, the Nets are probably still looking at $33-40 million in cap space. They can create more by trading a player like Nic Claxton for less salary, or Terance Mann without taking any back. They’ve got a league-record 21 second-round picks to help dump salaries and create more room.

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They’ve also been fortunate enough in the lottery to get the opportunity to select two cornerstones at the top of the draft, including in the upcoming 2026 Draft. The rebuild is officially over as they prepare to test their young core and make a competitive push for the playoffs, or at least the Play-In Tournament. They’ll get a major boost from their trade deadline acquisitions and still have additional moves to make for more veteran help. They also still have plenty of draft equity to supplement this group with more young talent.

Salary cap situation and draft picks

The Wizards are entering the offseason with a full roster totaling $189.4 million in salaries. They went from having a projected $80 million in 2026 cap space a year ago to sitting just $11 million below the $200.5 million luxury tax line. Instead of pursuing free agents with cap space, they used up their flexibility ahead of the trade deadline by trading the large expiring salaries of C.J. McCollum and Khris Middleton for Trae Young and Anthony Davis, respectively.

They are set to operate as an over-the-cap team below the first apron. The Wizards will still be able to take back more salary in a trade than they send out, acquire free agents via sign-and-trade, and use various exceptions like the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and the $13.4 million Kelly Olynyk trade exception. In all likelihood, they won’t exceed the luxury tax line in the process of filling out the rotation.

Although the Wizards currently don’t have much tax space, they could create more with a few moves. Young can decline his $49 million player option and re-sign to a new long-term deal with a significantly lower starting salary. They could also trade several of their lower-salaried expiring contracts if they need more flexibility. They have a massive surplus of 13 second-round picks to help facilitate those deals.

The Wizards’ core is nearly set after making their big trade deadline acquisition and landing the first overall pick. They could make marginal moves to improve the rotation and maybe turn over some players they don’t plan on extending. Other than that, this offseason will largely focus on long-term planning, such as team-friendly extensions and improving their draft pick surplus.

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They are now entering the Flagg era with a fresh start. The Mavericks completely rolled over the front office and coaching staff, eliminating just about any semblance of the Harrison front office. The new front office, led by Masai Ujiri, is inheriting a great situation. He already has a better head start than in his previous stops with a franchise player to build around. He has the hardest part of building a championship roster taken care of.

The Mavericks still have a long journey ahead of them to make it back to title contention. They have a strong collection of role players but no other young cornerstone that fits Flagg’s timeline. They will have an opportunity to get that with the 9th overall pick, but after that, they don’t have control of their draft for the next four years. They’ll have the challenge of figuring out ways to bring in more young talent while trying to be competitive with no incentive to bottom out.

Salary cap situation and draft picks

The Mavericks are entering the offseason with 13 players under contract, totaling $161.8 million in salaries when factoring in $3.2 million in dead money. They are well below both aprons and $38 million below the $200.5 million luxury tax line. They will have plenty of spending power this offseason and could use all of it without exceeding the tax line, which they will remain under.

Their current payroll situation is a stark contrast to most of the last two seasons. The Mavericks exhausted all their resources and exceptions to the fullest extent, leaving them right up against the second apron. It left them in dangerous stretches when they had multiple injuries and couldn’t even sign a player to a 10-day contract.

They are now among the teams with the most spending flexibility in the league. And it’s all thanks to the Anthony Davis trade to the Wizards. They did not receive significant value in terms of draft picks, young players, or veterans who could help them now. Instead, they got significant salary relief by moving off Davis, Jaden Hardy, and D’Angelo Russell for expiring contracts. The trade removed them from being over the second apron and a repeater tax penalty in the $350 million range.

The Mavericks are below the salary cap, but not far enough to operate as a cap space team. They will operate as an over-the-cap team and a below-apron team. They’ll be able to increase salaries by taking more salaries in trades than they’re sending out, and signing and trading for free agents. They also have a $20.8 million trade exception created in the Anthony Davis trade that allows them to acquire up to a $21 million player.

They also have access to the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and $5.5 million bi-annual exception, both of which could be used to sign free agents or as trade exceptions. They could exhaust nearly the entirety of their exceptions and remain under the tax. Using any of these exceptions, along with the Davis trade exception and the trade mechanisms mentioned above, would hard cap the Mavericks to the $209.1 million first apron. But that’s okay since they won’t even exceed the tax.

These exceptions can and to an extent should be used to accumulate assets. That translates to acquiring bad contracts from other teams along with draft equity and young players with untapped potential. There are a handful of teams, like the Thunder, Nuggets, Magic, Suns, Kings, and Sixers, who need to reduce payroll to fulfill offseason goals. The Mavericks should be able to replenish their draft pick chest with two or three moves.

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On the one hand, the Cavaliers progressed further than they ever had with this group. On the other hand, the journey didn’t look pretty. Inconsistency dragged their first two series longer than they needed to be. This is especially disappointing considering they had no major injuries. For a team as talented as they are, this playoff run raised more questions than answers.

The Cavaliers will march forward with their group and are expected to for multiple years. They will look to make marginal upgrades to the roster but will face challenges in doing so due to apron restrictions and a lack of tradeable assets. These next two years will be critical and perhaps their only remaining chances to win a championship before the rising costs to maintain this roster complicate it.

Salary cap situation and draft picks

The Cavaliers are entering the offseason with 12 players under contract, totaling $224.7 million in salary. They’re currently set to operate above the luxury tax line, the first apron, and the second apron. They’re just $3.4 million above the $221.7 million second apron, but effectively $8.3 million above it once accounting for the two remaining roster spots they still need to fill, at least at the $2.5 million veteran minimum.

Although they’re currently above the second apron, their payroll situation is fluid. James Harden has a $42.3 million player option that he is expected to decline and then re-sign with the Cavaliers on a longer deal with a lower annual salary. It’s unclear what that deal will look like, but the savings should be enough for them to field a roster below the second apron.

The Cavaliers operated as a second apron team last season. They couldn’t aggregate salaries or take back more salary than they sent out in a trade, sign-and-trade for free agents, use any form of the mid-level exception, or send cash in trades. They were limited to re-signing their own free agents, signing draft picks, and making minimum signings.

They were one of the more active teams on the trade market and made several deals that significantly reduced their payroll and luxury tax penalty. Despite those efforts, they still finished just over the second apron. As a result, their 2033 first-round pick is frozen, meaning it cannot be traded. It could eventually become unfrozen if they remain out of the second apron for multiple seasons.

The Cavaliers seem unlikely to exceed the second apron again this upcoming season. Doing so would freeze their 2034 first-round pick. If they do it again for a third straight year, that 2033 first-round pick would fall to the end of the first round. They would ideally like to avoid that, along with any further frozen picks. They’re already severely limited in the number of draft picks they can trade.

Staying under the second apron would impose fewer team-building restrictions on the Cavaliers. As an above-first-apron and below-second-apron team, they still couldn’t sign-and-trade for free agents, but they could sign-and-trade their own free agents to acquire players already under contract. They could also trade cash and would have access to the $6 million taxpayer mid-level exception.

The most significant resource they would regain is the ability to aggregate salaries in a trade while taking back 100 percent or less of their outgoing salary. This would allow them to trade for just about any player. They could, hypothetically, trade Evan Mobley and additional salaries for Giannis Antetokounmpo. It would also allow them to trade for a player earning $30 million or more without including Mitchell, Mobley, or Harden.

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Did that series expose anything existential about the Thunders’ roster? Probably not. Chet Holmgren’s disappearing act is a cause for concern with his maximum contract set to kick in, but the grass isn’t always greener if they trade him. The bigger concern was injuries, but they got so much out of guys stepping up with Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell out. The injury pendulum will eventually swing in the other direction. They don’t need to make major changes, at least not to the top of their roster.

The Thunder are all but certain to make some changes to the backend of their rotation. They have a roster crunch and enormous roster expenses to run the team completely back. They are going to be significant taxpayers, but to a reasonable extent. They’ll still field one of the deepest rosters in the league, but perhaps they may not be 13-deep as they were last season.

Salary cap situation

The Thunder are entering the offseason with 17 players rostered, including two first-round picks in the 2026 Draft. The total salaries combine to what would be a record-setting $260 million payroll, which would push them $60 million above the luxury tax line. The spike in their payroll is the result of the maximum extensions of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams kicking in. They will have starting salaries projected at $41.25 million, which is worth 25 percent of the $165 million salary cap.

The $294 million luxury tax penalty is disingenuous when factoring in that they can’t field 17 players. If, at a minimum, they decline Kenrich Williams’ $7.2 million team option and trade the 17th overall selection for a future first-round pick, then they’re working with a $207 million tax penalty. They’re effectively facing a $450 million roster if they run it back and use their last roster spot on just one of their first-round picks.

Even so, that tax penalty is historically high and accounts for about 83 percent of their total payroll. Teams with exorbitant tax penalties that get closer to matching their total payroll don’t receive great returns on investment. The only time a team paid close to a 1:1 tax penalty to payroll is the 2022 Warriors, and that thankfully resulted in a championship. In all likelihood, the diminishing returns on keeping their 12th and 13th guys won’t justify the $100 million or so in additional costs.

The Thunder will be taxpayers in the upcoming 2026-27 season. The bigger question is how much is ownership willing to spend? They’ve shown a strong willingness in the Paul George years when they had one of the biggest tax penalties in history up until that point. Chances are, they would go just as far with a roster spending $100 million or less in the luxury tax than a roster $200 million or above.

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They probably wanted to delay that day for as long as possible, but they now face a post-Giannis reality. The team is in step one of a rebuild with no young cornerstone to look forward to. That could change with whoever they select with the 10th overall pick and possibly additional picks they acquire. It’s a start, but it could take time before they are back in the playoff picture, given their draft pick deficit through the end of the decade.

The Bucks will gain more clarity on their long-term and short-term future once they trade Antetokounmpo. They will need to balance draft assets, young players, and cap flexibility with veterans who could help them win now. They’ll need players to look forward to, but lottery reform and their lack of control over their own draft picks could also motivate them to strive for relevance. There is a pathway for them to get the best of both worlds with a younger, more athletic team under Taylor Jenkins.

Salary cap and draft pick situation

The Bucks are entering the offseason with 14 players under contract, totaling $165 million in salaries. They also have an additional $23.2 million in dead salary, headlined by Damian Lillard’s stretched money over the next four seasons. This leaves them with roughly $15 million below the luxury tax line when factoring in the $2.3 million setoff they’ll receive from Lillard signing with the Trail Blazers.

They’ll likely have more tax space once their pending options and non-guarantees are accounted for. Some of their players with player options will decline them and enter free agency, while the Bucks could cut one of their two non-guaranteed players. They may have closer to $25 million in room below the luxury tax once those contracts are resolved. They could create even more flexibility in an Antetokounmpo trade, as well as by moving other veterans.

In all likelihood, the Bucks will operate as an over-the-cap team that won’t exceed the $200.5 million luxury tax line. They would have many ways to significantly increase their payroll, including using expanded trade exceptions to take in more salary than they send out. They can also acquire free agents via sign-and-trade, and they would have access to the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and the $5.5 million bi-annual exception. Using any of those tools would hard cap them at the $209.1 million first apron.

There is a slight possibility that the Bucks operate as a cap space team. It would require them to trade Antetokounmpo early and in a multi-team deal in which they take back minimal salary. The more teams involved, the fewer salaries they would need to take back.

As an example, reducing their payroll by $40 million would create $30 million in cap space while still being able to re-sign Ousmane Dieng at around his qualifying offer. They would have the $9.3 million room mid-level exception instead of the $15 million mid-level, and no access to the bi-annual exception.

This pathway would maximize the long term, since it could give them more draft equity in the Antetokounmpo trade and set them up to take on bad salary for more assets later using their cap space. The cost would be not filling out their payroll with higher-paid veterans. That would leave the roster light overall, which would only benefit the Pelicans or Hawks since one of them will get the Bucks’ 2027 first-round pick.

The alternative way to maximize their return would be to structure the deal so that they create a massive trade exception. That would allow them to get draft picks, young players, and veterans, all while preserving the ability to absorb additional salaries later. The Bucks would have one year to use the trade exception instead of cap space, and they would still reap the benefits of the additional spending power of an over-the-cap team, such as the $15 million mid-level exception.

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