That decision looked shaky for a while. The Hornets traded away their best frontcourt players, kept dealing with injuries to their cornerstones, and may have whiffed on their 2024 lottery selection. That resulted in ranking among teams with the lowest levels of public confidence entering the 2025-26 season. Their preseason win total was just 27.5, the fourth-lowest mark in the league.

It felt like the Hornets were heading into one last trip to the lottery and a chance to draft one more prospect before needing to reevaluate the roster. Instead, they soared past expectations by winning 16.5 more games than their preseason total. Most importantly, they saw enough from their young core to feel like they may finally have a foundation for sustainable success.

The Hornets will almost certainly upgrade the roster this offseason. They are tied for the second-most first-round picks in the league and have the third-most second-round picks. They also have a lot of money to spend through various exceptions. The question is whether they believe now is the time to cash in some of their chips, and how aggressive they are willing to be.

Salary cap situation and assets

The Hornets are entering the 2026 offseason with a full 15-man roster and a combined payroll of $157.9 million. That is below the $165 million salary cap, so they could technically be a cap space team if they reduce their payroll a bit more. But that would require renouncing Coby White’s Bird rights, meaning they wouldn’t be able to go over the cap to re-sign him.

Instead, they are expected to operate as an over-the-cap team, which gives them more spending power. Along with re-signing White, they would also have access to the $15.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, the $5.5 million bi-annual exception, and several pre-existing trade exceptions worth $8.2 million and $7 million. That gives them significantly more spending power than an impractical amount of cap space and the $9 million room mid-level exception.

The more relevant threshold for the Hornets is the $200.5 million luxury tax line. Charlotte is roughly $42 million below it and is highly unlikely to exceed it this season. They and the Pelicans are the only two NBA teams in history to have never paid the tax, and that streak will likely continue.

All these factors put the Hornets in an advantageous position to make several meaningful upgrades within their budget. They should be able to re-sign White to a lucrative deal and use the entirety of the mid-level exception. On top of that, they could make a consolidation trade using an expanded trade exception. Essentially, in addition to re-signing White and using the MLE, they could significantly increase their payroll by taking back more salary than it sends out in a trade.

The Hornets also have one of the largest draft-pick surpluses in the league, with 13 first-round picks and 15 second-round picks between the 2026 and 2033 drafts. They have the means to trade for just about any player who becomes available.

There is an argument for the Hornets to mostly stand pat with their core and see how they look next season with more proof of concept. That would be similar to how the Pistons operated last summer. Instead of making an all-in trade to upgrade the core, they mostly ran it back to gather more intel. They still made significant improvements, going from a bottom-tier team to a playoff-caliber level the following season.

The Hornets could take that path and would probably make the playoffs as is, especially considering they played at a 55-win pace in the second half of last season. But the 2024-25 Pistons aren’t a one-to-one comparison. The Hornets are young, but they might have a better case than the Pistons did to be aggressive this offseason.

Read more

0:00 Intro, Hornets’ salary cap analysis, and assets
6:26 Setting Up The Mock Offseason
10:29 Brandon Miller Extension Decision
20:03 All-in for a superstar like Giannis?
26:11 Elite starting wing and the Hornets as a Giannis facilitator
31:29 Coby White extension
38:21 Targets for the MLE or sign and trade

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0:00 Intro and the Hornets early arrival
6:32 Should they go all in now?
15:08 Who is safe, who is expendable
22:44 Physicality targets

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The Warriors are entering Curry’s 18th season at a significant disadvantage in constructing a competitive roster around him. They’ve done well enough to keep the talent level respectable, including acquiring Jimmy Butler without giving up too many assets and while maintaining most of their draft capital. That matters for an aging team without a clear cornerstone in place once Curry is gone.

But with Butler’s injury and the uncertainty around what type of player he will be when he returns, the Warriors are back in a similar position to where they were before acquiring him, if not worse.

There are all sorts of uncertainties surrounding the Warriors’ roster, and beyond the roster, Kerr’s future. But as long as Curry is bought in, a full-scale rebuild will remain on the back burner. They’ll continue to walk the line between fielding a competitive roster around him and avoiding a deep push into their asset base.

Salary cap situation

The Warriors are entering the 2026 offseason with a fluid salary-cap situation. There is a strong chance we already know which route they will take. They have ten players rostered and a high payroll, giving them just $13 million below the luxury tax line, including their lottery pick, projected to be 11th overall in the 2026 draft. That threshold is not as important since they will exceed it anyway.

The more important decision is whether the Warriors operate below the $209.4 million first apron or between the first and second aprons. They are projected to be $21 million below the first apron. Teams below that threshold have access to the $15.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and the $5.5 million bi-annual exception. They can also sign-and-trade for free agents and use the expanded trade exceptions that allow teams to take on more salary in a trade than they send out.

The Warriors may prefer to operate above that threshold. The only way they could reasonably operate as a below-first-apron team is by shedding significant payroll, such as trading Butler’s $56 million salary. The $21 million cushion below the first apron would not be enough to re-sign Porzingis while also filling five more roster spots. Because of that, it’s highly unlikely they’ll use any of the mechanisms listed above, including a sign-and-trade for a free agent.

This is important because it makes it highly unlikely the Warriors can sign LeBron James, whom they are reportedly interested in. Even if James were to take roughly half his current salary, around $25 million to $26 million, the Warriors could not fill out the roster unless Butler or Green were also heading out. There are too many obstacles for that path to be worth it.

The most likely way the Warriors sign a free agent is through the veteran minimum and the taxpayer mid-level exception (T-MLE). The latter is reserved for teams above the first apron and below the second apron. In all likelihood, the Warriors will operate in that range, above the first apron and below the second apron, just like they did this past season.

They could still make a big trade for an All-Star within those thresholds, but they would be unable to use expanded trade exceptions. They would need to send out 100 percent or more of the salaries they’re taking in. They’ll likely be unable to exceed the $221.7 million second apron since aggregating multiple salaries in a trade or using the T-MLE are second apron hard cap triggers.

The difference between the two aprons is roughly $12.6 million. That is a significant amount of money that would allow the Warriors to field a deeper roster. They are more likely to retain a strong starting five and quality reserves by operating above the first apron.

It’s worth noting that these projections factor in the player options of Draymond Green, Al Horford, and De’Anthony Melton. Melton seems like a lock to decline his minimum option, while Green and Horford are more likely to pick theirs up. If they do, the apron projections mentioned earlier are still relatively accurate.

If the Warriors don’t make major changes, they could have Green and Horford back around their player-option amounts, fill out the back end of the roster with minimum signings, including Pat Spencer and Quentin Post, and use their T-MLE. This would leave them with enough room below the second apron to re-sign Porzingis to a starting salary in the $21 million to $24 million range, depending on whether they want to keep a roster spot open during the season.

Assets and long-term goals

Read more

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Salary cap situation and assets | Key players | Targets

Salary cap situation | Assets and long-term goals | Key players

Finances and assets | Upgrading the frontcourt | Blow it up or continue?

Finances and assets | How the Heat can trade for a star | Notable contract situations

0:00 Intro
3:45 Knicks existential danger
31:03 Rockets potentially starting their summer early
53:54 Why the Lakers can't get carried away with this first round
1:00:57 Nuggets earning signs
1:08:47 Raptors’ outclassed by the Cavs

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0:00 Intro
3:30 Season recap and Steve Kerr uncertainty
11:01 Lottery-pick implications
16:00 Jimmy Butler vs. Draymond in a star trade
22:54 Warriors payroll and apron flexibility
26:24 Porzingis, wings, and realistic targets

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There were some positives to take away. They received encouraging development early on from their two rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears. They got a strong comeback from Saddiq Bey, who emerged as a starting-level player. They also saw sustained consistency and a mostly healthy season from Zion Williamson. Despite all that, their season is largely overshadowed by mismanagement and bad losses.

In all likelihood, the Pelicans will continue to build on what they currently have and make another push for the playoffs. They have the cap flexibility to run it back with this core and the means to add to it. They may believe some roster modifications, particularly upgrading the frontcourt, could get them back into playoff contention with good health provided.

But after seeing this group together for roughly five years, it might be fair to wonder if their overall ceiling is the occasional playoff appearance. It may be worth weighing the benefits of trading their best veterans, extracting as much positive value as possible, and entering a rebuild where they can fully focus on developing their youth.

Contract Projection Series: Current Extension Eligible Players Part 1 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 2 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 3 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 4 | Standout Minimum Players | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 1 | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 2 | Restricted Free Agents | Future Veteran Extensions Part 1 | Future Veteran Extensions Part 2 | Rookie-Scale Extensions Part 2

Finances and assets

The Pelicans are heading into the 2026 offseason as an over-the-cap team. There was an unlikely path to cap space, but it would have required waiving Williamson, whose contract is not fully guaranteed. He now has at least 80 percent of his $42.2 million salary guaranteed as a result of playing 61 games this season. He can get the final 20 percent guaranteed by meeting weigh-ins, but at this point, there is no reason for the Pelicans to waive him. It doesn’t make sense to carry $33.7 million in dead money on their books not to play him.

As an over-the-cap team, the Pelicans will have access to the $15 million mid-level exception, $5.5 million biannual exception, and two trade exceptions worth $13.4 million and $4.5 million. They can also use expanded trade exceptions that allow them to take back more salary than they send out.

Using any of these exceptions will hard cap the Pelicans at the $209.1 million first apron, but they won’t exceed that threshold or the luxury tax line. They and the Hornets remain the only two teams in NBA history to have never paid the luxury tax, and they should continue that streak into a 24th consecutive year after the abysmal season they just had.

However, the Pelicans currently project to be just $4.1 million below the $200.5 million luxury tax line with 14 players rostered. They’ll have a couple of decisions to make with that self-imposed hard cap in mind. They involve the pending team options for Kevon Looney ($8 million) and Karlo Matkovic ($2.3 million). There’s no reason not to hold onto Matkovic’s salary as a useful, high-energy fifth big who is making less than the veteran minimum next season.

However, Looney will almost certainly get his option declined after failing to carve out a role in a rotation that was desperate for center play. Declining his $8 million salary would leave the Pelicans $12.1 million below the luxury tax line, while needing to fill only one more roster spot to get to the 14-player minimum roster requirement. Unlike players on non-guaranteed contracts, options must be exercised or declined before the start of free agency.

That would leave the Pelicans with plenty of flexibility to use most of the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception or make a trade that significantly increases their payroll. They could also look to trade a player out of the rotation, such as Jordan Hawkins ($7 million), to create more flexibility to use both the MLE and an expanded trade exception.

While the Pelicans do not have a first-round pick in this year’s draft, they have all of their own first-round picks through 2033, including the more favorable of their own and the Bucks’ first-round pick in 2027. They can trade a maximum of four first-round picks this offseason: 2027, 2029, 2031, and 2033. They also have six second-round picks, including the 58th overall pick in the 2026 draft. If they keep it, that player will likely occupy a two-way spot instead of a standard roster spot.

Read more

0:00 Intro and payroll analysis
6:53 Saddiq Bey extension
11:27 Addressing starting center
19:06 Backup big and shooter targets

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0:00 Intro and Heat cap sheet analysis
9:02 Tyler Herro’s extension and trade value
14:12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. extension debate
18:29 Norman Powell and free-agent holdovers
24:35 Miami’s draft ammo and choosing Donovan Mitchell
37:28 Daniel Gafford, Harrison Barnes, and roster fill-outs
47:16 Year-two outlook

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0:00 Intro and front office concerns
5:23 Identifying the core and why the Pelicans keep competing
18:46 Frontcourt and rebounding needs

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Third Apron is available on all podcast providers. Please subscribe, rate, and share if you enjoyed this: https://linktr.ee/yossigozlan

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Now the Heat enter the 2026 offseason after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. That is obviously a disappointing outcome by their standards, but the season was not without encouraging signs. Bam Adebayo continued to grow offensively, which matters as his max extension kicks in. Around him, they’ve built a deep roster of useful players.

Overall, this was not a lost season. The developments of Davion Mitchell, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson, and Kasparas Jakucionis are among the younger or lower-cost players who gave the team real developmental progress to point to. But it did make something clearer: the Heat still need another star, and ideally a new best player, if they are going to put the rest of this roster in its proper place.

Contract Projection Series: Current Extension Eligible Players Part 1 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 2 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 3 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 4 | Standout Minimum Players | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 1 | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 2 | Restricted Free Agents | Future Veteran Extensions Part 1 | Future Veteran Extensions Part 2 | Rookie-Scale Extensions Part 2

Finances and assets

Last year, the Heat looked like a plausible 2026 cap space team. That is no longer the case after re-signing Mitchell and extending Nikola Jovic. They will still enter the 2026 offseason with meaningful flexibility, but operating as an over-the-cap team. They are projected to be $29.5 million below the $200.5 million luxury tax line and $35.5 million below the $209 million first apron.

This projection assumes Andrew Wiggins picks up his $30 million player option, which still seems like the most likely outcome. If he were to decline it, the Heat could explore bringing him back on a restructured deal with more years and a lower annual salary. But that does not feel especially likely right now, despite how important he has been for them.

The Heat still clearly wants to preserve flexibility from year to year. Even though the Heat won’t operate with cap space this summer, they could still position themselves to have a much cleaner path to meaningful cap room in 2027. That is one way they could acquire a star if they do not land one before then.

But that would mean not extending Wiggins. They may prefer he pick up his option so he remains an expiring contract and they maintain cap flexibility. They’d still have the option to extend him at any point next season before his contract expires if they fulfill roster goals and no longer need cap flexibility.

Like a lot of teams, the Heat already have a nearly full roster. They effectively have 13 players accounted for, including a first-round pick that is currently projected to land 13th overall. There is always a small chance of a lottery jump, but it would be unprecedented to jump into the top four with 4.8 percent odds. Given the depth of the current roster, this still looks more like a team that should be thinking about consolidation than another offseason of simply adding one more young player to the mix.

What helps the Heat more now than in previous offseasons is its improved draft-pick situation. Last year, they were limited to trading just two first-round picks because of the Stepien Rule complications stemming from the Kyle Lowry trade. This summer, they could trade up to four: 2026 (13th), 2029 (conditionally), 2031, and 2033.

The Heat can technically guarantee trading three in 2026, and either 2030 and 2032, or 2031 and 2033. Trading the 2029 requires the 2027 first-round pick owed to the Hornets, which is lottery protected in 2027 and unprotected in 2028, conveying in 2027. If it conveys in 2028, then each subsequent first-round pick gets pushed back a year. This would limit the receiving team to 2030 and 2032 first-round picks, as opposed to 2029, 2031, and 2033. The Heat could get around this by reacquiring the pick from the Hornets.

How the Heat can trade for a star

Read more

0:00 Intro and why Heat fans feel despondent
4:18 Why Miami has to go all-in and ranking Miami’s real star targets
11:34 Donovan vs. Giannis
16:01 Kawhi as a fallback
19:23 Giannis fit and injury concerns, and why Donovan is the cleaner fit
26:50 Jaquez, Larsson, and Heat role players
33:03 Norm Powell, Wiggins, and free-agent decisions

You can follow Yossi on:
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Salary cap sheets: www.capsheets.com

Third Apron is available on all podcast providers. Please subscribe, rate, and share if you enjoyed this: https://linktr.ee/yossigozlan

You can also access Yossi’s salary cap analysis on his Substack. Subscribe for $7 per month or $50 annually!: https://thirdapron.com

You can follow Yossi on:
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Salary cap sheets: www.capsheets.com

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Third Apron: https://thirdapron.com

Current Extension-Eligible Players - Part 1

Gui Santos | Draymond Green | Kristaps Porzingis | Trae Young | Keon Ellis | Dean Wade | Craig Porter Jr. | Khris Middleton | Dwight Powell

Current Extension-Eligible Players - Part 2

Julian Champagnie | Harrison Barnes | Kelly Olynyk | Anfernee Simons | Collin Sexton | Zach Collins | Nick Richards | Leonard Miller | Jusuf Nurkic | Robert Williams | Matisse Thybulle

Current Extension-Eligible Players - Part 3

Mitchell Robinson | Coby White | CJ McCollum | Mouhamed Gueye | Gabe Vincent | Ayo Dosunmu | Julian Phillips | John Collins | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Zach LaVine | Trayce Jackson-Davis

Current Extension-Eligible Players - Part 4

Norman Powell | Andrew Wiggins | Nikola Vucevic | Jordan Walsh | Rui Hachumura | Maxi Kleber | GG Jackson | Jalen Pickett | Kevin Huerter | Kenrich Williams | Andre Jackson Jr.

Standout Minimum Players

Neemias Queta | De’Anthony Melton | Collin Gillespie | Jordan Goodwin | Sandro Mamukelashvili | Jock Landale | Javonte Green | Landry Shamet | Honorable mentions

Free Agents and Pending Options - Part 1

Austin Reaves | LeBron James | Luke Kennard | Marcus Smart | Tobias Harris | Daniss Jenkins | Jose Alvarado | Kevin Porter Jr. | Simone Fontecchio | Moe Wagner

Free Agents and Pending Options - Part 2

James Harden | Isaiah Hartenstein | Lu Dort | Jonathan Kuminga | Quentin Grimes | Kelly Oubre Jr. | Dominick Barlow | Andre Drummond | Day’Ron Sharpe | Ziaire Williams

Restricted Free Agents

Jalen Duren | Walker Kessler | Tari Eason | Bennedict Mathurin | Jaden Ivey | Spencer Jones | Ousmane Dieng | Ochai Agbaji | Mohamed Diawara | Peyton Watson | Mark Williams

Future Veteran Extension-Eligible Players - Part 1

Dillon Brooks | Saddiq Bey | Karl-Anthony Towns | Miles McBride | Derrick Jones Jr. | Kris Dunn | Tyler Herro | Pelle Larsson | DeAndre Hunter | Jalen Smith

Future Veteran Extension-Eligible Players - Part 2

Michael Porter Jr. | Cameron Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Donte DiVincenzo | Naji Marshall | Keldon Johnson | Miles Bridges | R.J. Barrett | Jamal Shead

Rookie-Scale Extensions - Part 1

Keyonte George | Brice Sensabaugh | Brandon Miller | Cason Wallace | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | Scoot Henderson | Noah Clowney | Gradey Dick | Jordan Hawkins

Rookie-Scale Extensions - Part 2

Amen Thompson | Ausar Thompson | Marcus Sasser | Anthony Black | Dereck Lively III | Bilal Coulibaly | Jarace Walker | Ben Sheppard | Taylor Hendricks | Julian Strawther

This entry and the next one focus on players who will become eligible to sign rookie-scale extensions in the 2026 offseason. These are the 2023 first-round picks entering the final season of their respective rookie contracts. They can begin negotiating with their teams once the 2026 Finals end, and they can sign extensions between July 6 and October 19, the day before the start of the 2026-27 regular season.

Unlike veteran extensions, which are limited by a player’s current salary, rookie-scale extensions have fewer restrictions. They can run for up to five years and up to the maximum salary regardless of the player’s current salary. The maximum for players with 0-6 years of service is worth 25 percent of the salary cap, currently projected at five years, $251.2 million.

Players who make an All-NBA team in the fourth year of a rookie-scale contract can receive escalators that raise the contract to 30 percent of the salary cap. That would push the total value to $301.5 million. Victor Wembanyama, the only no-brainer max player in this class, has clearly earned both the maximum extension and escalators this offseason. His analysis ends there.

Unlike veteran extensions, rookie-scale extensions do not trigger a six-month trade restriction. Players who sign them do receive the poison pill provision, though. That complicates trades during the 2026-27 season because their incoming salary for a new team would count as the average of their current salary and the total value of the extension.

More on the 2026 Trade Deadline: Harden for Garland | Jaren Jackson Jr. Trade | Anthony Davis Trade | Two-Way Conversions and Buyouts | Celtics Luxury Tax Maneuvers | Zubac Trade Package | Warriors After Kuminga-Porzingis | Bulls Trade Deadline | Jared McCain Trade | Lakers Cap Space Plans | Magic’s Path Forward | Pistons, Spurs, Rockets Stood Pat

More from this series: Current Extension Eligible Players Part 1 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 2 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 3 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 4 | Standout Minimum Players | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 1 | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 2 | Restricted Free Agents | Future Veteran Extensions Part 1 | Future Veteran Extensions Part 2 | Rookie-Scale Extensions Part 1

Amen Thompson | Ausar Thompson | Marcus Sasser | Anthony Black | Dereck Lively III | Bilal Coulibaly | Jarace Walker | Ben Sheppard | Taylor Hendricks | Julian Strawther

Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets)

Amen Thompson showed a lot of potential in his second season as a potential two way star. After making the All-Defense First Team and establishing an offensive role, he was poised for an even bigger breakout this season with more on-ball responsibility after Fred VanVleet was ruled out for the season with a torn ACL. He did not make the leap his biggest supporters were probably hoping for, but he still had his best season.

Thompson averaged a career-high 18.3 points per game on 13.2 field goal attempts per game. He did so mostly inside the arc, with improved efficiency at the rim and more self-created offense. Since March, he has also been more consistent offensively, averaging 20.7 points per game while shooting 62 percent from two. He also improved his ability to get to the line and raised his free-throw percentage by nearly 10 percent.

The shot still has not come along, though, as he is shooting 21.6 percent from three on just 1.5 attempts per game. It may be that Thompson never becomes the primary full-time on-ball threat some hoped he would be. But that is fine. His secondary role is still highly valuable, and there is reason to believe he will look even better next year with less creation burden. For what it’s worth, his overall efficiency only took a modest hit despite the increased role.

After his second season, there was a real debate over whether Thompson was on track for a max contract. He remains one of the best, if not the best, perimeter defenders in the league. It would be concerning if he tops out at this level offensively, but that seems unlikely. There is reason to believe that with even modest offensive improvement, Thompson would exceed the value of 25 percent of the salary cap.

Despite the shooting limitations, it is hard to argue against a max contract for Thompson. He is not quite at the level of Ben Simmons, who received a max contract on similar production was after his third season, but there are enough parallels to make the comparison useful. His defense may come down slightly if he takes on more offensive responsibility, as has happened with other players in the past. But he should remain above average if that happens.

Whether the Rockets extend him now at the max will come down to their belief in that outcome. Among their young players, he has the most upside and is the only one with clear superstar potential. The hope is that he becomes more like Jimmy Butler, who also couldn’t shoot early in his career before developing into a passable low-volume three-point shooter. That version of Thompson would easily be worth the max.

The real negotiation may come down to escalators for the higher 30 percent max if Thompson makes an All-NBA team next season, or to the presence of a player option. The 25 percent max is currently projected at five years, $251 million. The Rockets have done very well getting sub-max deals done with several recent first-round picks. This one will be their biggest negotiation yet

Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons)

Like his twin, Ausar Thompson is already one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and he may be an even better disruptor given his steal rate. He is nowhere near Amen’s level offensively, though, and does not project to be outside of transition play, cutting, and connective tissue. The rest of his offensive game is still very thin.

Thompson is still due for a lucrative extension this summer. It will not be close to a max contract, and finding the right number is tricky when looking at recent sub-max extensions for defense-minded players. At the top end, there are players like Jalen Suggs and Derrick White earning roughly 18 percent of the salary cap. However, Thompson has not shown the shooting or ball creation to get to that level.

The cleaner comparison may be Dyson Daniels and Christian Braun, who both recently extended with their respective teams for four years and $100 million. As discussed with Cason Wallace in the previous article, the annual rate at roughly 14 percent of the salary cap may be the sweet spot for premier perimeter defenders with offensive limitations. With the salary cap rising, that would translate to roughly four years, $104 million, or $26 million annually.

The bigger question for Thompson is whether he should play out the season and test his market in restricted free agency if he believes that type of offer will still be there. OG Anunoby was on a similar trajectory when he extended with Toronto for four years and $72 million, then made enough offensive progress to outplay that deal. Thompson is unlikely to become the shooter Anunoby is, but the broader point still applies. Even marginal growth as a shooter could make 14 percent of the cap look team-friendly.

Detroit has a big offseason ahead with its young core. Jalen Duren may be back on a maximum or near-max contract. Getting Thompson on a team-friendly deal around that percentage of the cap described above would help maximize Detroit’s window and preserve room to pursue an offensive co-star for Cade Cunningham. That matters even more because it would help offset the lack of shooting in Duren-Thompson lineups.

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This entry and the next one focus on players who will become eligible to sign rookie-scale extensions in the 2026 offseason. These are the 2023 first-round picks entering the final season of their respective rookie contracts. They can begin negotiating with their teams as soon as the 2026 Finals end, and they can sign extensions between July 6 and October 19, the day before the start of the 2026-27 regular season.

Unlike veteran extensions that have limitations based on how much a player is earning, rookie-scale extensions have fewer restrictions. They can run for up to five years and up to the maximum salary, regardless of how much a player’s salary is. It is worth 25 percent of the salary cap for players with 0-6 years of service, currently projected at five years, $251.2 million.

Players who make an All-NBA team in the fourth year of a rookie-scale contract can receive escalators that raise the contract to 30 percent of the salary cap. That would push the total value to $301.5 million. Victor Wembanyama, the only “no-brainer max” player, has undoubtedly secured both the maximum extension and escalators this offseason. His analysis ends there.

Unlike veteran extensions, rookie-scale extensions do not trigger six-month trade restrictions. Players who sign them do receive a poison pill provision, though. That complicates trades during the 2026-27 season because their incoming salary for a new team would count as the average of their current salary and the total value of the extension.

More on the 2026 Trade Deadline: Harden for Garland | Jaren Jackson Jr. Trade | Anthony Davis Trade | Two-Way Conversions and Buyouts | Celtics Luxury Tax Maneuvers | Zubac Trade Package | Warriors After Kuminga-Porzingis | Bulls Trade Deadline | Jared McCain Trade | Lakers Cap Space Plans | Magic’s Path Forward | Pistons, Spurs, Rockets Stood Pat

More from this series: Current Extension Eligible Players Part 1 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 2 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 3 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 4 | Standout Minimum Players | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 1 | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 2 | Restricted Free Agents | Future Veteran Extensions Part 1 | Future Veteran Extensions Part 2 | Rookie-Scale Extensions Part 2

Editorial note: The restricted free agent projections post has been updated to include an analysis of Mark Williams. Like with Peyton Watson, he was mistakenly put in the wrong category during the planning process.

Keyonte George | Brice Sensabaugh | Brandon Miller | Cason Wallace | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | Scoot Henderson | Noah Clowney | Gradey Dick | Jordan Hawkins

Keyonte George (Utah Jazz)

The Jazz’s rebuild hadn’t inspired much confidence through the start of this season. Although they did not have a top selection until the 2025 draft, it started to look like they were going to come away from that rebuild without an All-Star-caliber player.

That changed with Keyonte George’s massive third-year leap. He would’ve earned him Most Improved Player honors had he played in enough games. The fact that the Jazz, a team that aggressively tanked this season, rested him as a third-year player to lose enough games says a lot about his positive impact.

George has emerged from being a good combo guard without a defined role into a legitimate starting point guard. He’s an even better high-level scorer now who can knock down threes at a high volume, heat up for big scoring nights, and barely miss from the free-throw line. He has also developed into a good facilitator, averaging a career-high 6.1 assists per game. He is doing all of that on an above-average 61 percent true shooting mark.

As good as he has been offensively, his defense still leaves a lot to be desired. The Jazz had a 124 defensive rating with him on the court, and teams often target him in mismatches. He will need to become at least passable on that end, or he could hold back the rest of Utah’s defense.

Even with those defensive limitations, George has shown enough offensively to be in play for a maximum contract worth 25 percent of the salary cap. That amount is currently projected at five years, $251 million. The precedent is with offensive-minded guards like De’Aaron Fox and Jamal Murray, both of whom received 25 percent max contracts. Those players have been sporadic All-Stars throughout their careers, and there is no reason to think George cannot get there as well.

$50 million annually may sound rich for a guard with only one great season, but it is worth remembering that this is 25 percent of the salary cap. It’s the most players with 0-6 years of service can receive, but it isn’t the maximum that most players can receive. The maximum of 30 percent of the cap is more representative of that. It prevents players from negotiating contracts between 25 and 30 percent. George’s actual value may be somewhere in between.

Trae Young is also a relevant comparison as a high-level offensive guard who is a major defensive liability. The difference is that Young made All-NBA and qualified for the higher 30 percent maximum. George is not at that level offensively. He may not project as a perennial All-NBA player, but he does not have to be one every year to justify 25 percent.

With that said, a five-year max with no options and light escalators could be the framework. As an example, the Thunder gave Jalen Williams a max contract that would rise to 26 percent if he made All-NBA Third Team, 27 percent for Second Team, and 30 percent if he made First Team this season. A similar structure would make sense here.

The Jazz will be able to fit George into their payroll structure. They already have Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. set to average roughly $50 million per year, which is roughly 28 percent of the cap. They should be able to fit George as a third max-level salary and maintain a manageable payroll with a deep roster over the next few years.

Brice Sensabaugh (Utah Jazz)

Sensabaugh is the other 2023 first-round pick on the Jazz remaining on the roster. He broke out this season as a high-level scorer and catch-and-shoot three-point threat, especially over the past month. He also has the size and versatility to defend multiple positions.

Although Sensabaugh is averaging big numbers over the past month, they are not representative of his role with the Jazz. He has been playing heavy minutes because nearly every starter has been out of the lineup. Next season, he will play fewer minutes, maybe in the 18-to-22-minute range off the bench. Still, it is useful to know he can scale up into a starter’s workload if needed.

Sensabaugh’s versatility and scoring ability should make him one of the better reserve scoring options moving forward. An annual salary at around 11 percent of the cap could make sense. That would be similar to projections given to players like De’Andre Hunter and Keldon Johnson, or slightly above the full mid-level exception beginning in 2027-28.

As good as Sensabaugh has been, there is reason to believe an extension may not get done. The Jazz will be at the luxury tax line in 2027-28 once George’s extension and Walker Kessler’s next contract are factored in. They’ve shown a willingness to pay tax before, but perhaps not just yet. They may need to create some salary relief to keep him.

The draft will also factor in. If the Jazz get a top selection in the upcoming draft, they’ll likely select a wing whose development would cut into Sensabaugh’s role. They could just let him play out next season if his extension demands are too high this summer. His play may have garnered a higher role elsewhere than the Jazz might have in store for him.

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This entry and the next one focus on veterans who will become extension-eligible starting in the 2026 offseason. They are mostly players on expiring contracts or players with a player option before the 2027-28 season. Almost all of them can extend at any point between the start of the offseason and June 30, 2027.

Veterans can extend starting on the second anniversary of a three- or four-year contract or on the third anniversary of a five or six-year contract. Veterans on expiring contracts can add up to four years as long as the new deal does not take them above five total years, including the current season. They can get a starting salary of up to 140 percent of the last year of their current contract or the estimated average salary, whichever is greater.

Any extension with a starting salary above 120 percent of the previous season’s salary, raises above 5 percent in subsequent seasons, and a total length exceeding four years, including the current one, triggers a six-month trade restriction.

More on the 2026 Trade Deadline: Harden for Garland | Jaren Jackson Jr. Trade | Anthony Davis Trade | Two-Way Conversions and Buyouts | Celtics Luxury Tax Maneuvers | Zubac Trade Package | Warriors After Kuminga-Porzingis | Bulls Trade Deadline | Jared McCain Trade | Lakers Cap Space Plans | Magic’s Path Forward | Pistons, Spurs, Rockets Stood Pat

More from this series: Current Extension Eligible Players Part 1 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 2 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 3 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 4 | Standout Minimum Players | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 1 | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 2 | Restricted Free Agents | Future Veteran Extensions Part 1 | Rookie-Scale Extensions Part 1 | Rookie-Scale Extensions Part 2

Michael Porter Jr. | Cameron Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Donte DiVincenzo | Naji Marshall | Keldon Johnson | Miles Bridges | R.J. Barrett | Jamal Shead

Michael Porter Jr. (Brooklyn Nets)

The Michael Porter Jr. trade remains one of the more consequential deals of the 2025 offseason. It was a large price to pay for the Nuggets to significantly boost their rotation this season to create savings that subsidized more depth pieces. However, Porter Jr. has exploded into an All-Star caliber player this season. Depending on how much more he develops, there could be more ripple effects, such as where the 2032 first-round pick ultimately lands.

The Nets will enter the 2027 offseason with 14 first-round picks and 22 second-round picks through the 2033 draft. They are also entering a pivotal offseason in which they need to choose a direction. Do they attempt to make a trade with the Rockets to regain control of their 2027 first-round pick? Or do they hit the accelerator, add more veterans, and make a run at the Play-In Tournament?

The answer to that question may partly rest on what the league decides to do with lottery reform. Flatter odds across the board could push the Nets, a team that was a title contender not too long ago, to be competitive already. If they choose that route next year, having Porter Jr. as one of their top offensive options would help that pivot.

Porter Jr. will be entering the final year of the five-year, $179 million contract he signed with the Nuggets. He will be extension-eligible starting on July 6 and can extend through June 30, 2027. The Nets may shop him one more time to see whether they can get the type of value they received for veterans like Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson.

Whether it is with the Nets or another team, it is time to start looking at what an extension for Porter Jr. could look like. As Third Apron detailed a couple of months ago, he is unlikely to get offers in the five-year, $234 million maximum range. Although Porter Jr. is having a career year, his production is boosted as the first option on one of the worst teams. He would probably be a second or third option on most competitive teams.

Third Apron was too low on its initial valuation of Porter Jr. a few months ago. If he was not meeting the value of his contract before, he finally is now. A four-year extension averaging 25 percent of the salary cap would translate to roughly $194 million over four years starting in the 2027-28 season. Perhaps the Nets or his next team could get him at a lower amount and with fewer years to protect themselves from potential injuries, although he has been fairly durable over the past few seasons.

The Nets could also renegotiate and extend Porter Jr.’s contract. They are projected with roughly $30 million in cap space and could use some of it to bump his $40.8 million salary up to the 30 percent max of roughly $49.5 million. That would allow them to give him smaller cap hits in subsequent years, which could help with team building and raise his trade value. But he would get a six-month trade restriction if he renegotiates and extends.

Cameron Johnson (Denver Nuggets)

On the other side of the trade, things looked rough for the Nuggets early as Johnson got off to a slow start and missed a lot of time with injuries. But he has come along over the last 17 games. He has been a terrific third through fifth option, averaging 14.3 points per game on 55 percent shooting from the field, including 48.3 percent from three on 5.2 attempts per game. Most importantly, the Nuggets have finally been mostly healthy and are showing consistency.

Johnson is entering the final year of the four-year, $90 million extension he signed with the Nets. He will be extension-eligible starting on July 6 through the end of the 2026-27 season, for up to four years and $141.1 million. That would average roughly 15 percent of the salary cap, which is comparable to the five-year, $140 million contract Keegan Murray just signed with the Kings.

The Murray deal, or $28 million annually, could be a useful framework for Johnson’s annual salary range, but probably a little lower and with fewer years because of his age and injury history. A lot more will be known after the playoffs. His value will ride on his performance and how deep the Nuggets advance, but that seems like an appropriate range for the type of player he is.

As discussed in several posts on Third Apron, the Nuggets are unlikely to keep their top six players together because the repeater tax penalties would push their total roster expenditures above half a billion dollars. It seems like something will have to give between letting Peyton Watson go and trading a veteran like Christian Braun or Johnson. Which player they move on from may come down to a combination of playoff performance and price.

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