Jonathan Kuminga and the 2025 Restricted Free Agents: How Much Longer Could This Go?
I check in on the restricted free agents with in-depth look at the Jonathan Kuminga situation, explain why the Warriors offseason is being held hostage, and the dangers of the qualifying offer path.
Restricted free agency is back, and that’s not a great thing. The 2025 free agency market is one of the slowest in years, largely due to the relatively weak class and limited spending power. This is a deadly combination for restricted free agents, and several remain unsigned as a result. Some of these players’ current holding patterns may linger on into training camp and even the start of the regular season.
This isn’t necessarily great for the team either, depending on the player. While restricted free agency historically favors the team, the implementation of the apron and its hard caps adds another layer of complexity.
Sometimes, a team’s plans can become an open secret. This became apparent earlier this month when reports stated that the Suns reportedly wanted to buy out Bradley Beal and stretch the remainder of his contract. However, the resolution came almost two weeks after the initial reporting. This delay allowed Beal to receive an advance payment on July 15, ahead of getting waived, according to Marc Stein.
It feels like the rest of the league is starting to take notice of the Warriors' plans. There have been reports and speculation linking Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton to the Warriors throughout July. According to Brett Siegel, several teams believe the Warriors already have agreements with the two players.
Yesterday, Warriors reporter Anthony Slater said this on the Hoop Collective podcast:
“Part of the potential Al Horford addition would be using the taxpayer mid-level that would second apron [hard] cap them [the Warriors]. Part of the reason they’re being very careful, and you’ve seen them make zero moves, is because the moment they second apron [hard] cap themselves, they give a team like Utah, a team like Brooklyn — who have stayed out of the Kuminga sweepstakes. And I’m not reporting any interest, the Warriors certainly believe Brooklyn doesn’t have interest — but the moment you give them a dollar amount [that the Warriors can’t match], you can either steal him away or even force the Warriors to have to send off a piece with a pick [to retain him].”
If the Warriors do have agreements in place with several free agents, this would explain why they haven’t made them official yet. And it makes sense given their precarious apron situation.
The Warriors currently have $170.5 million in team salaries for nine players. They will likely operate above the first apron, so they’d have an additional $11.9 million to spend on the roster. That will be necessary to field a deep roster with two players making above the 35 percent maximum.
This would eliminate them from trades that would use expanded trade exceptions, old trade exceptions, or signing and trading for free agents. They are also unlikely to exceed the two-year, $5.7 million portion of the mid-level exception, also known as the taxpayer mid-level (T-MLE). All those transactions would hard cap them to the $195.9 million first apron.
The Warriors are currently $36.9 million below the second apron. However, if the Warriors do sign Horford or any other player with the T-MLE, they’d become hard-capped to the $207.8 million second apron. That would effectively leave them roughly $24 million in space below the second apron when factoring in three additional minimum salary signings to reach the 14-player minimum requirement.