Kevin Durant Trade Mechanics and Where the Rockets and Suns Go From Here
I analyze the salary cap complexities of the Kevin Durant trade, explain why the Suns should hit the reset button now, and the type of follow up move I could see the Rockets making.
Kevin Durant has had one of the stranger career arcs. He’s set to join his fifth franchise while still playing at an All-NBA level, which is pretty high for an all-time great. He’s now completed the “NBA rainbow”, an accomplishment only fellow all-time great Shaquille O’Neal has accomplished. A third post-Warriors with no meaningful success could result in one of the odder legacies for a player of his caliber.
He’s joining a Houston Rockets team on the cusp of contention after four long years in the lottery. They are a defensively dominant team in need of an offensive infusion, and he fits that need without taking away from their defense. If any team in the West is equipped to defeat last night’s champions, it’s this team.
And the Rockets are acquiring him for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the 10th overall pick in the 2025 draft, and five second-round picks. That is a fraction of the value the Suns originally gave up to acquire him two years ago. It feels similar in value to what the Raptors traded to get Kawhi Leonard in 2019. That is a low price for a team to raise their title odds, even if just for a one-year rental.
The Rockets are expected to reinsert Jabari Smith Jr. into the starting lineup, according to Kelly Iko. They are taking somewhat of a risk keeping him in the last year of his contract, but there is a possibility of him coming out better. Perhaps they feel that he could be molded into an impactful player by playing next to Durant, who shares similar attributes to him.
Durant can extend with the Rockets for up to two years, $122.1 million starting on July 6. Smith Jr.’s negotiations could be impacted by Durant’s contract, wherever that may land. Durant could take less so the Rockets can have more room to keep Smith Jr. and Tari Eason.
This trade cannot be processed until July 6 because of the Poison Pill Provision (PPP) on Jalen Green’s contract. Players on rookie-scale contracts who sign extensions have their incoming salaries in trades become the total value of their extension and their current salary divided by the total number of years remaining. This increases his incoming salary between now and the end of June to $29.5 million instead of his $12.5 million salary.
Usually, that’s only an issue for the team receiving the player. But in this case, it’s also a problem for the Rockets. PPP doesn’t change the outgoing salary from their perspective. Green’s $12.5 million salary, along with Brooks’ $22.1 million salary, isn’t enough to match Durant’s $51.2 million salary. Thus, the trade won’t work in 2024-25.
There is a strong chance this trade will be expanded to include more teams and players since we have two weeks until it can become official. But if it isn’t, the trade as structured works with the two teams. And that is fascinating because both teams have to do 100 percent matches since they project to be above the first apron in 2025-26. Teams above the first apron cannot take back more salaries than they’re receiving in a trade.
The mechanics are simple from Houston’s perspective. They are sending a combined $55.4 million in outgoing salaries. That exceeds 100 percent of Durant’s $54.7 million salary, so that works for them. The $6 million salary of the 10th overall selection does not factor into the salary matching. They only do 30 days after the draft pick signs his rookie-scale contract.
So how does this trade work for the Suns if they’re taking back more salaries? Also, isn’t Green’s salary set to increase with his trade bonus?
The Suns can acquire both Green and Brooks for Durant because the likely incentives in Brooks’ contract will be deemed unlikely. He has a $1 million playoff bonus he earned last season because the Rockets made the playoffs. It will no longer count in his 2025-26 salary because the Suns missed the playoffs last season. He can still earn it, but now it's an unlikely bonus that only counts against the aprons.
So instead of acquiring $55.5 million, they are acquiring $54.4 million. That is less than Durant’s $57.4 million salary, so it works. This is a reminder that all trades are treated equally by each party and must be viewed from all perspectives. This is one trade, but in a way it’s two trades.
As for the trade bonus, Green has one worth 10 percent, currently valued at $6.9 million. It would be spread evenly across his salaries for 2025-26 and 2026-27. That means each cap hit would increase by $3.5 million. Option years do not factor in unless the option gets picked up.
This would increase his $33.3 million salary to $36.8 million, which wouldn’t work. So instead, all he can get is $502,332. That’s because the Suns are taking back $251,166 less than they’re sending out, so his cap hits in 2025-26 and 2026-27 can only increase by that amount.
Players have no veto rights when it comes to not receiving their full trade bonus. Players often agree to waive a portion of it to help their new teams. But in Green’s case, he would be limited to receiving what he could, or waive the entire portion.
He could receive more if the trade is expanded, but more likely if he is rerouted to another team. He should be able to receive his full bonus if sent to any team operating below the $195.9 million first apron. The only way he can receive more with the Suns is if they send out enough salaries in an expanded version of the deal where they get below the first apron and don’t need to do a 100 percent salary match.
The Suns technically increase their projected payroll by acquiring the 10th overall selection, but not exactly by $6 million. It will mostly offset veteran minimum salaries of the two roster spots they gained by trading one player for three. They went further above the $207.8 million second apron, but they are realistically much closer to that threshold than their cap sheet suggests.
Cody Martin has an $8.7 million non-guaranteed salary with a June 29 guarantee date. Vasilije Micic has a $8.1 million team option and is expected to return to Europe this summer. Waiving both players would reduce their tax penalty by nearly $150 million and leave them just $4 million above the second apron. That would leave them within striking distance of getting below that threshold.
According to John Gambodoro, he expects Bradley Beal to be traded or bought out ahead of the season. As discussed in the Suns' offseason preview, he would likely need to give back 25 percent of his remaining contract based on the recent history of maximum players receiving buyouts. But that only makes sense for him if he has offers in free agency starting at the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
It’s hard to be inspired by the return of this trade and believe they’ll be better than a 25-win team. Yes, they still have moves to make and can trade up to three first-round picks to get a starting center and point guard. But this rotation mostly comprises of scoring guards with no defensive attributes.
This could motivate the Suns to pursue a financially motivated trade that gets them under the luxury tax. They currently project with a penalty exceeding $100 million, which is too much for a team that missed the playoffs. They could look to move Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neal to save more money.
They have started the clock on Devin Booker, whether they realize it or not. They are expected to *try* to build out a competitive roster around him and *try* to win. But what if they struggle again?
It’s also worth noting that he is extension-eligible starting on July 6 for up to two years, $150 million. It would keep him earning 35 percent of the salary cap in his age 33 and 34 seasons. There shouldn’t be any rush to extend a two-time All-NBA player to his highest amount with three years remaining on his contract.
For starters, what are they getting ahead of? It’s not like they’re trying to get him at a lower rate. They seem motivated to pay him top dollar as soon as possible. Extending players with multiple years left on their contracts is risky. Just look at what happened to Damian Lillard, who last signed this type of extension and is about to kick in.
The only rationale for extending him now is if having more years under contract raises his trade value. But does it? This isn’t like the case with Giannis Antetokounmpo when he added three years onto his deal two years ago. He’s a perennial All-NBA player, and the extra years kept his value high. It’s possible teams would prefer Booker without an extension so they could attempt to negotiate his next deal below his maximum.
The Rockets still make sense as a suitor for Booker. Part of the decision to trade for Durant now may be to potentially expedite the Suns’ downfall. This would leave the Rockets in a position yet again to make a deal with them. And they may still have the most attractive package for him with the two remaining Suns’ future first-round picks.
That’s the beauty of the trade for the Rockets. They can still trade a maximum of five first-round picks: two in 2027, two in 2029, and one in 2031 or 2032. They’ll still be linked to all the best, potentially available players like Booker or Antetokounmpo. However, they seem more likely now to make a smaller-scale move.
For example, this team needs a shooting guard who can score, hit threes, and defend at a high level. Derrick White checks all those boxes, fits the Rockets’ play style and culture, and played with Ime Udoka in Boston. Would the Rockets consider trading their remaining Suns picks to bring in that type of player to complete their lineup? It would be a complicated salary match under the aprons, but the Rockets could make it work.
It’s worth noting that the Rockets are now hard-capped to the $207.8 million second apron because they are aggregating players. Their current luxury tax penalty exceeds $30 million, but they can get below the tax by waiving several non-guaranteed players and declining team options.
It would also require declining Fred VanVleet’s $44.9 million team option and re-signing him to a lower starting salary. But if they were to make another trade for a player like White, they’d likely be taxpayers starting this season.
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Great analysis!