NBA Trade Deadline Preview: Predicting What The Luxury Tax Teams Will Do

I look at the current projected luxury tax payments and predict which teams will reduce theirs, by how much, and estimate what the total dollars paid and distribution to taxpaying teams will be.

The NBA has seen exponential growth in luxury tax payments over the past few seasons. More teams have been willing to become taxpayers and spend deep into the tax. This season is no different with 14 teams currently over the luxury tax line as of today.

I started my time at HoopsHype at the beginning of this luxury tax rise and wrote about it every season. So this will be my analysis of it for the 2024-25 season. However since we’re less than two weeks away from the trade deadline, these numbers will likely decrease since most of these teams are apron teams and cannot increase payroll. So I will review each team’s likelihood of decreasing their tax penalty and estimate the total combined penalty and redistribution to non-taxpayers.