The Alex Caruso Extension + Michael Porter Jr.'s Potential Availability
I analyze what may be an unprecedented annual salary for a role player not expected to get much mileage. Also, if Michael Porter Jr. is truly available, more teams should be trying to trade for him.
Alex Caruso’s Extension
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Alex Caruso have agreed on a four-year, $81.1 million extension, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. It is his maximum allowable amount which he became eligible to sign yesterday.
This is the structure:
I’ve been expecting Caruso to sign for this amount or close to it since the Thunder traded for him. He had to wait six months to become eligible for this amount due to his trade restriction. I even discussed the possibility of the Thunder using their cap space to renegotiate and extend Caruso midseason1.
On the surface, $20 million annually could seem like a lot for a player who doesn’t start, won’t close every night, and doesn’t even play that many minutes. He’s also struggling mightily with his jumper to start the season. He’s shooting career-low percentages from the field, and he’s already not an exceptionally good offensive player.
Despite all that, Caruso got the same type of extension as the likes of Ivica Zubac, Andrew Nembhard, and Wendell Carter Jr.2 And if you’re still wondering why, it’s because he’s still considered one of the best — if not the best — point of attack defenders in the league.
As of Friday, December 20, 2024, Caruso leads the league in defensive field goal percentage at 31.6%3. He is doing this on 9.5 defensive field goal attempts per game (DFGA), which is in the lower end of the 8-14 DFGA range for the best non-bigs, but also not a small attempt rate by any means given his limited role off the bench. He’s also one of the better guards at protecting the rim, sixth in the league in deflections per game, and eighth in steals per game.
Playing with a historically great Thunder defense certainly helps him execute better defensively, but that shouldn’t diminish his impact. If anything, it makes his performance on the Bulls last year more impressive. He shouldered a load defensively that helped keep the Bulls' defensive rating from being in the absolute bottom tier4. The Bulls’ defense was 7.3 points per possession better with him on the court relative to when he was not5.
Okay, but doesn’t this still feel a bit steep for a player with such a relatively small role? That, along with his injury history and offensive limitations, contribute to his generally low minute totals. Even if the deal ages well in a rising salary cap environment, his role might not get significantly higher with the Thunder.
Below I list a couple of historical comparisons of players with strong defensive and limited offensive impact6. (It should be noted that I’m aware Caruso is much better offensively than all these players I’m about to discuss).
One that came to mind is former Thunder defensive stud Andre Roberson. For a small stretch, he was one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. In 2016-17, he played a career-high 79 games and finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Roberson’s salary was worth 9.3 percent of the salary cap in 2017-18
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is another player with a similar defense-offense disparity. He earned 13.8 percent of the cap in the first year of his extension with the Hornets.
However, both players were signed to their respective deals with the intent to start and play significant minutes. Both players came off seasons in which they played around 30 minutes per game before their new deals kicked in. The big difference is that Caruso was given his extension while averaging 20 minutes per game off the bench and with that minute total and role expected to continue.
Matisse Thybulle might be the most similar modern comparison in terms of defensive impact and minutes per game. Last season, he only started in 19 of 65 games and averaged 22.9 minutes per game. However, his salary was 4 percent lower as a percentage of the cap than what Caruso’s projects to be.
There are more examples I could discuss, but I don’t think there’s a precedent for a player about to be compensated this type of annual salary for a limited role and coming off such low minutes per game. And while he will be extremely effective as a role player, the Thunder are ultimately paying a premium for a top closer who might not close that often. That’s quite a luxury to have for emergencies.
This begs another interesting question: can the Thunder afford to have a sparingly used $20 million player going forward? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has qualified for the supermax, and Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren could all be earning maximum salaries in two years. Isaiah Hartenstein also has a big salary, and they’re also paying Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe. The team will get expensive soon.
I’ve already answered this question in July when I reviewed the Thunder’s offseason. I projected their payroll two years ahead to include new salaries for Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Holmgren, and they should be able to fit Caruso. They’ll be a taxpayer, but ownership has shown a willingness to spend on a true contender in the past7.
He will be in his age 35 season in the final season of the extension. I thought Caruso would get a team option on the last year, similar to Josh Hart’s veteran extension from last year. I could see the Thunder moving him sometime after the second season of the extension to make room for Cason Wallace’s next contract.
Caruso’s body of work over the past few seasons has shown he deserves this annual salary figure. And he’s shown as a Bull he’s capable of a bigger role if needed. It’s been fascinating to watch his earnings grow from a minimum two-way player to one of the highest-paid role players in the league.
Michael Porter Jr.
Earlier this week, it was reported by The Athletic that the Denver Nuggets have significant interest in acquiring Zach LaVine. Such a deal would likely involve sending back Michael Porter Jr. and salary filler to the Chicago Bulls. I made a video earlier this week about what a trade could look like from the Nuggets’ perspective and made the case for and against it.
While all the attention is on LaVine and his potential fit in Denver, there was little to no discussion on the Porter Jr. aspect of it. As I explained in the video, I like the hypothetical deal a little more for the Bulls. I like his fit with them and that he earns significantly less than LaVine.
And then there’s this bit of reporting from The Stein Line:
Denver has always been somewhat unsure of Porter's true trade value given his extensive injury history ... while LaVine, for that matter, has also seen knee issues contribute to suppressing his trade market over the past year-plus.
The Nuggets also know that Porter's presence furnishes them with some extra size. Swapping him for LaVine would make Denver smaller and likely create new defensive challenges to manage.
This is why, sources say, some in the Nuggets' front office believe that the best course — if they indeed reach the point that it is time to part with Porter — is swapping him for two starting-caliber players rather than a solitary former All-Star like LaVine.
Porter Jr.’s sudden potential availability has me thinking — what if the Bulls are open to a third team acquiring him in a hypothetical LaVine-to-Denver trade?
The impetus for that potential direction would be not only to keep their 2025 first-round pick (top-10 protected) but also to bottom out for a better shot at a top selection. As of today, they are tied with the Kings for the 10th-worst record in the league. They’ve been on a little hot streak (including an impressive win over the Celtics) but their current outlook with this group still seems to top out as a Play-In team again.
If the Bulls are open to expanding a hypothetical LaVine trade with Porter Jr. going elsewhere, several teams should look into acquiring him. Players in his position, with his size, and shooting ability are rarely available. He has been injury-prone and inconsistent at times. But when he’s healthy and locked in, he’s been incredibly impactful for the Nuggets.
The first team that sprang to my mind are the Cleveland Cavaliers. To some, they are a title contender as currently constructed. To others, they need to shift around their core and add more versatility at the wing to be more viable for the playoffs. However, I’m not sure a Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, Jaylen Tyson, and 2031 unprotected first-round pick-type package is getting it done8.
That would logically mean they may have to trade Jarrett Allen. But that’s easier said than done because A: he isn’t trade-eligible until February 2, 2025, and B: the Cavs have the best record in the league! The longer they keep this up, the more unlikely they are to make a major change like that.
I also really like the idea of Porter Jr. in Memphis. Like Cleveland, they don’t have a long-term answer at the 39. They may not have a player as good as Allen available to offer the Bulls, but they have more first-round picks (can trade up to four) and interesting young players to offer. They could make the money work by sending out Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, and John Konchar and still field a deep roster while ducking the tax this and next season.
The Wolves would’ve made a lot of sense had they acquired Porter Jr as part of the Towns trade. Now I’m not sure how they could make a compelling enough offer without moving essential core players. Replacing Towns with a shooter as big as Porter Jr. would’ve kept more of their identity last year while significantly reducing future expenses.
Porter Jr. has two additional seasons left beyond this one worth $38.3 million in 2025-26, and $40.8 million in 2026-27. He might be too expensive for some teams, but he would’ve been a great option for a team with such high expenses as the Wolves. As we get closer to the end of his deal, the possibility of extending him at a similar or lower annual salary range could appeal to potential suitors.
For similar financial reasons, the Pelicans could be an interesting team with Brandon Ingram’s uncertain future. The Nuggets reportedly have an interest in him, so perhaps there is a two-team deal to be made. If the Pelicans don’t want to give Ingram a maximum extension that would pay him north of $50 million annually, then it would make sense to swap him for a cost-controlled option in Porter Jr.
If I had to guess, I think the Bulls keep Porter Jr. if they acquire him. They’ve lacked size at the wing for several seasons. I don’t see him shifting them in the standings in one direction or the other this season. He would balance out a roster that has a surplus of talented guards and be a part of the next good Bulls team.
For what it’s worth, Bulls VP Arturas Karnisovas was with the Nuggets when they selected Porter Jr., so there’s a familiarity there. And the Bulls have been more interested in trading for players than draft picks in recent years10. They could still conceivably bottom out this year and try to compete for the playoffs with their lottery pick and retooled roster next season.
In case you haven’t noticed, I think Porter Jr. is pretty good. I understand he hasn’t lived up to his maximum contract, but the cap has risen enough over the years that it’s more manageable now. I might be overrating his actual trade value, but it feels like he’s being undervalued. If moved, he could.
The Thunder used all $30 million of their cap space to sign Isaiah Hartenstein.
All these players got some form of the Veteran Extension maximum amount that starts them at $18.1 million in 2025-26.
I added filters for a minimum of 10 games played and a minimum of 8 defensive field goal attempts per game (DFGA). What makes his performance so insane is that he leads the league with just the games played filter added, meaning he’s outperforming fringe rotation players with smaller sample sizes inflating their defensive field goal percentage.
The Bulls were 22nd in defensive rating last year with Caruso playing a career-high in games (71) and minutes per game (28.7).
That put him in the 93rd percentile swing among all players, per Cleaning the Glass.
The objective ideally would be to avoid the second apron, which is possible but not a certainty.
This framework would also make the Cavs very expensive next season but could be worth the tax penalty.
This is not a knock on Jaylen Wells, but Memphis may want a veteran upgrade at the 3 for the playoffs.
In the last four years, the Bulls have only acquired draft picks in exchange for Lauri Markkanen (a first and a second) and DeMar DeRozan (two seconds).