The Mavericks Path Forward
On Nico Harrison's firing, his tenure with the Mavericks, how they navigate the next eight months, and why trades for their Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving could take time.
According to Marc Stein and Shams Charania, the Mavericks have fired general manager Nico Harrison. This inevitable outcome arrives 9 months after the franchise-inflicting trade of Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round pick. It was a decision universally loathed in real time, and one of the worst-case scenarios following it bore out.
Many saw this day coming. What wasn’t certain was the way they’d go about it. Organizationally, there was no public acknowledgement of even the possibility that they had faltered.
Not only did the Mavericks announce in a press release that they relieved Harrison of his duties, but Governor Patrick Dumont wrote an open letter to fans, finally acknowledging “the profound impact these difficult last several months have had.”
They could’ve easily spun it as a “parting of ways” and continued to pretend as if mistakes weren’t made. It wasn’t a perfect response, but it was a necessary first step needed to bring back fans they alienated. While Dumont will focus on repairing the organization off the court, newly elevated executives Michael Finley and Matt Ricardi have the monumental task of navigating the roster out of the mess Harrison left.
In fairness to Harrison, he orchestrated one of the more improbable retools that led the Mavericks to the 2024 Finals. He infamously said, “Fortune favors the bold” in reference to winning the 2025 Draft Lottery. Luck had everything to do with that result, but his boldness in previous years led to rewarding results.
In 2022, the Mavericks reached the Western Conference Finals with a roster that was almost entirely comprised by the previous regime. They wouldn’t have gone that far without Jalen Brunson, who emerged as an All-Star-level player in the second half of the season. It seemed like Doncic had his co-star all along.
Brunson would become an unrestricted free agent following the playoffs and signed with the New York Knicks. His departure was the result of several mistakes by the organization predating Harrison, such as not extending him midseason and not giving him a team option for the 2021-22 season. They would’ve had an opportunity to restructure his contract on a team-friendly deal he’d still be on right now.
The loss of Brunson crippled the Mavericks, and they treaded .500 in 2022-23. That made their run to the 2024 Finals all the more improbable. And it was thanks to several bold trades orchestrated by Harrison.
It was apparent that they needed a second All-Star, but there weren’t many they could pick from. But it was clear they wanted to recreate the formula they had with Brunson, so they acquired Kyrie Irving. They were able to get him for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, and one first-round pick in 2029 after a Nets tenure where his trade value had plummeted with several controversies.
The Mavericks couldn’t win enough games to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, which allowed them to keep their 2023 first-round pick. That selection resulted in Dereck Lively, who was critical for their 2024 Finals run. They also traded a 2030 first-round pick swap along with Reggie Bullock to the Mavericks in a sign-and-trade for restricted free agent Grant Williams.
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These moves got the Mavericks back on track to begin the 2023-24 season, but it cost them control of their draft in years when Doncic wasn’t under contract. There had been rumors circulating at the time that he could leave if the roster wasn’t competitive enough. These acquisitions came with the enormous risk of conveying valuable picks in the future if they didn’t work out.
Instead of staying pat, Harrison doubled down at the 2024 trade deadline. He traded an additional first-round pick swap in 2028 to the Thunder in a deal that returned Daniel Gafford from the Wizards. Then he topped it off by trading a top-2 protected 2027 first-round pick and Williams to the Hornets for P.J. Washington. The Mavericks were now no longer in control of their draft for the second half of the decade, for one All-Star and mostly, at the time, floor-raising starters.
But after their 2024 Finals run, the risk seemed totally mitigated. Doncic qualified for the supermax early for a five-year contract exceeding $300 million in value that he could’ve signed in the 2025 offseason. That seemed like an inevitability after putting together a roster around him that could compete for championships for many years.
Fast forward to today, and the Mavericks are now in a precarious position because of their outgoing draft picks. Many believe they should trade their veterans and enter a rebuild. And under normal circumstances, that is the correct path. But they have no incentive to bottom out in subsequent seasons without their draft picks.
Yet they are in a stronger position than most rebuilding teams. They’re currently in an unintentional rebuild that was sparked by barely missing the 2025 playoffs. They lucked out and drafted Cooper Flagg, a player who projects to be better than anyone on all the bottom-tier teams.
With Harrison gone, the Mavericks and fans can begin to heal. But there’s also an exciting aspect that they finally get to explore: how they’d like to build around Flagg. The first major step will likely start in June with the draft.
The Mavericks sit at 3-8, the fifth-worst record in the league. ESPN’s BPI currently projects them to finish with the ninth-worst record in the league. But is it accounting for Davis and Irving regularly playing?
It’s possible they shut down Davis for prolonged periods of time to preserve his trade value. They might as well let Irving take the season off while they’re at it. If that’s the case, it’s reasonable they maintain a bottom 5-7 record in the league. This would position them with high lottery odds in a top-heavy draft.
The Mavericks will probably look to have more of a Pacers-style mini retool, where they’re in the lottery twice before pushing for the playoffs again. They’ve already added two lottery picks in Flagg and Lively in the last three drafts to make up their frontcourt of the future. They should add another cornerstone in the upcoming draft before being competitive again.
Just about everyone else on the roster, except for Max Christie, who is arguably the only Maverick who isn’t having a down year, should be put on the trade market. None of Davis, Irving, Gafford, or Washington (who isn’t trade-eligible until after their season ends) will net hauls featuring multiple draft picks and recent lottery picks, but they all have positive value.
Davis’ future in Dallas is uncertain now that Harrison is out. In fact, Davis may prefer a trade since he’s less likely to receive an extension now that his biggest advocate is no longer there. He will become extension eligible starting on August 6, 2026, to add up to three additional years to his current contract.
A maximum-level extension that would pay him north of $75 million in his age-38 season seems out of the question. At this stage of his career, it’s better to extend for as much as he can as early as possible. Perhaps a sub-max contract paying $45-50 million annually, like Kevin Durant’s recent extension with the Rockets, could be a reasonable range for him. But he’ll need to get to a situation first where there’s interest in an extension.
On yesterday’s Third Apron podcast, we spent an hour dissecting the trade market for Davis. Finding a clean fit was such a struggle that the Lakers came out as one of our frontrunners. Other teams that garnered strong consideration included the Bulls and Sixers, but none of the packages include the level of assets that would come close to recouping Doncic’s trade value.
The Mavericks are looking at poor optics with whatever the return for Davis is. This opens up the possibility that they keep him through the deadline if they can’t get sufficient value. There won’t be internal pressure to trade him if they remain at the bottom of the standings.
Of course, there could be external pressure from Davis to get to a destination so he could play. But it’s of the utmost importance that the Mavericks extract as much value as possible for him. If that means his situation stretches out into the 2026 offseason, so be it.
The possibility of an Irving trade is difficult to process with the uncertainty of his status for the season. He’s an incredibly hard worker who’s as great a bet as anyone to come back from his injury at a level close to where he left off. But teams may want to see him play first before committing to him. The Rockets came up as the most logical destination with Fred VanVleet out for the season.
A Gafford trade could come first since he’s the easiest of their group of veterans to move. He’s on a team-friendly contract that could allow him to start or scale down as a high-end reserve on several teams. He can be traded now since his recent three-year, $54 million extension did not trigger a six-month trade restriction.
This may be one of the more optimistic outlooks on the Mavericks, but they could set the stage for a formidable team around Flagg quickly. They just need to execute their moves over the next eight months with precision.
Five Owed 2026 First-Round Picks Worth Monitoring
We’re just three weeks into the regular season, but it isn’t too early to analyze first-round picks owed in the 2026 draft. That’s because there are up to eight within the top 20 that could be conveyed. Today’s order will change significantly, but there are motivating factors that could steer a team up or down the standings.
Check out this week’s Third Apron podcasts, both touching on the Mavericks’ struggles and the fallout from yesterday’s news!
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