The Thunder's Elite Draft Pick Management

On the Thunder's remaining surplus of draft picks and swaps, how they're positioned to move up in each draft through 2028, and how they could extend move up in subsequent drafts.

“With the first pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, the back-to-back champions Oklahoma City Thunder select…”

This is the nightmare scenario that all other 29 teams and their fans are beginning to conceive as a legitimate possibility.

The Thunder are 13-1 to start the season with a 15.4 net rating, which would be the record if they could sustain it. If they win on Monday against the 2-11 Pelicans, they’d become the 14th team to start the season 14-1 or better. The teams on that list almost always make the Finals.

And they’ve done all this without Jalen Williams so far. ESPN’s BPI projects them to win 67 games, but 70 is definitely in play for them. And they’re likely to have a high draft pick again in the upcoming draft.

Last week, Third Apron took an early look at outgoing 2026 first-round picks. Two of them are potential lottery picks that could go to the Thunder. One is the Jazz’s top-8 protected first-round pick that many expect not to convey, but organizationally, they may need to pull several levers to ensure that.

The other is the Clippers’ final unprotected first-round pick owed from the Paul George trade. They came into the season with a retooled bench and championship aspirations. Instead, they’ve cratered on both ends of the court.

The Clippers are 4-9 to start the season, which includes a six-game losing streak. Age has finally caught up with Chris Paul, who's already out of the rotation, as well as Brook Lopez, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Nicolas Batum. Bradley Beal is out for the season with a fractured hip. Kawhi Leonard is already missing time with a foot strain.

If the season ended today, the Clippers’ first-round pick owed to the Thunder would be tied with the 8th-best lottery odds. They seem likely to convey a selection at this range or slightly higher since the bottom of the West is so bad that they could still qualify for the Play-In Tournament. That’s assuming none of the Pelicans, Kings, Mavericks, or Grizzlies pass them, and the Jazz don’t keep up their current pace.

But let’s assume a more reasonably positive outcome for the Clippers. Let’s say they make the Play-In Tournament as a 9 or 10 seed and sneak into the playoffs as an 8 seed. In that case, they’d likely convey the 15th overall selection to the Thunder after presumably being eliminated by them.

Here are the Thunder’s highest selections in the last two drafts in relation to their actual draft slot based on their record.

• 2024 Pick: 13th (via Rockets)

  • Actual draft slot: 29th

• 2025 Pick: 15th (via Heat)

  • Actual draft slot: 30th

If the Clippers’ draft pick remains in the top-15, it would likely be the third consecutive draft the Thunder make a selection 15 spots above their own selection.

Lottery reform and the implementation of the Play-In Tournament pushed more teams to make moves to maximize the present. The Thunder took advantage of that demand by aggressively accumulating the league’s draft picks in the early part of the decade.

Many felt it was a meaningless pursuit. How could they possibly maximize the value of all those draft picks?

Now the league is reckoning with the monster it fed. The Thunder are going to be contenders for at least the rest of the decade and could have several more valuable first-round picks compared to their actual draft slot through the next three drafts.