Understanding the Power of the Pelicans/Bucks Pick
On the Hawks increasing likelihood to secure a top pick in the 2026 draft, and understanding the Bucks' side of it with the current lottery odds.
The Milwaukee Bucks are headed for the lottery. Their season was already off the rails and headed in that direction, but recent developments have made it a certainty.
The Bucks having a potential top 10 pick in the upcoming draft is the one silver lining. This is a rare opportunity to bring in a cornerstone to build around post-Giannis Antetokounmpo. This could be their only chance at a prospect this good in a while since they traded their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks. They are unlikely to get lottery picks in 2028 and 2030 since they traded swapping rights on those selections.
The Bucks also traded swapping rights to their 2026 first-round pick to the Pelicans back in 2020 as part of their acquisition of Jrue Holiday. Fortunately for them, they’re positioned for a lottery pick since the Pelicans are one of the worst teams in the league. They’re not guaranteed to have the same luck in 2028 or 2030, with the Blazers looking like up-and-coming playoff teams.
However, the big winners of the Bucks’ slide are the Atlanta Hawks. They acquired the Pelicans 2026 first-round pick in exchange for the rights to Derik Queen, who they selected 13th overall. They now have multiple chances at receiving a top selection in the upcoming draft with the better of the Pelicans’ and Bucks’ picks. The Bucks will receive the lesser of the two.
Just how valuable is this selection now? Currently, the Pelicans have the second-worst record in the league. If they finish second-worst, they’d have a 52.1 percent chance of landing in the top 4 with a floor at 6th overall. The Bucks have the 7th-worst record, which would give them a 31.9 percent chance of landing in the top 4 with a floor at 11th.
According to the pick odds listed on Tankathon.com, the Hawks now have a 21.5 percent chance of getting the first-overall pick. Those are by far the highest odds any team has had for the top pick in the lottery reform era. The reform implemented in 2019 gives the three worst teams in the league each a 14 percent chance at the first-overall pick. Before that, the worst team had a 25 percent chance of landing it.
More importantly, the Hawks now have overwhelming odds to jump up in the lottery. Remember, the NBA Draft Lottery draws combinations for the top four selections. That Pelicans/Bucks pick now has roughly a two-thirds chance at becoming a top-four pick. The downside of both teams ahead of the season is what made that selection so valuable, and drew the ire of the league and fans against the Pelicans.
To illustrate this, below is a video of 100 simulations performed on Tankathon:
And below is a visualization of the results:
