The Updated Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Landscape
I take a look at the teams most frequently linked to Giannis Antetokounmpo, if their best trade package for him improved or declined after free agency, and if they could make a deal now.
It’s been exactly three months since Shams Charania reported that, for the first time, Giannis Antetokounmpo is open-minded about playing somewhere other than Milwaukee. This came on the heels of a third consecutive first-round playoff exit for the Bucks when Damian Lillard tore his Achilles.
The speculation on Antetokounmpo’s future preceded Charania’s report due to various circumstances surrounding the Bucks’ team-building situation. They had minimal draft picks to trade and little to no young players with upside. It was hard for many following the league to envision a path back to contention with those factors and effectively $54 million in dead money on the books from Lillard.
With their backs against the wall, the Bucks went ahead and made an unprecedented move: waiving and stretching the remaining two years, $113 million on Lillard’s contract over five years. That, along with a couple of other moves, gave them the cap space necessary to sign Myles Turner to a four-year, $109 million contract. The Bucks got their Brook Lopez replacement in a move signalling their commitment to competing with Antetokounmpo.
Despite these moves, Charania reports that Antetokounmpo’s situation remains unsettled. He adds that there remain “real conversations” about whether Antetokounmpo believes he can win a championship with this roster. It’s easy to feel uninspired with this group if you read each name and exclude his. And that’s even in a wide-open Eastern Conference.
While Antetokounmpo hasn’t explicitly asked for a trade, we also haven’t received any confirmation that he won’t request one. Nothing will change until then, since the Bucks won’t trade him unless he requests a trade.
At the same time, he’s remained committed in the past without reiterating his commitment. The most likely scenario is that he will start the season with the Bucks, even if he’s starting to reconsider his long-term future. Ramona Shelburne gets the sense that nothing will be decided one way or another until the end of August or September.
A lot has changed around the league since that speculation started. The draft and free agency impacted the team’s trade packages and the timing of when players can be traded. Teams that were considered to have one of the best trade packages for the next available superstar may have changed their situations entirely.
Here is an update on the Antetokounmpo trade landscape featuring several teams he’s been frequently linked to, including their best package for a star, and their viability to get a deal done sooner rather than later.
New York Knicks
The Knicks have been linked to Antetokounmpo for a couple of years now. He was considered one of their targets if they were ever to parlay their surplus of first-round picks for a star. That possibility mostly went away by trading most of their picks for Mikal Bridges. They made it even less likely when they consolidated several tradeable salaries for the max contract of Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Knicks are operating above the first apron and below the second apron. They can still acquire Antetokounmpo by aggregating several salaries as long as they are equal to or are more than Antetokounmpo’s $54.1 million salary. For example, they can swap Towns for him, but the Bucks would likely require more value.
The best way to maximize value for the Bucks is for both OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges to be involved. Such a deal could involve them going to third teams, and those teams sending multiple young players and future first-round picks to the Bucks. Eric Pincus laid out a great example of how that type of trade could look.
However, Bridges signed a near-max extension on August 1 that went above his extend and trade limitations. He cannot be traded for six months, which would seemingly lower the Knicks’ chances at getting a deal done until the week of the trade deadline. But they’re still positioned to make the salary matching work before then, if Antetokounmpo requests a trade sooner.
A trade now would almost certainly require Anunoby’s $39.6 million salary, assuming Towns can’t get it done. Attaching Josh Hart’s $19.5 million would more than suffice salary-matching requirements and leave them with enough apron space to bring back another small-salaried player. It’ll be impossible to get a deal done with other players earning less than Hart while filling up the rest of the roster under the second apron hard cap.
Still, their chances plunged with Bridges’ trade restriction. Their current best package, centered on Anunoby and no picks, isn’t the best package for Antetokounmpo. And they probably still don’t have the best package if they can include both Anunoby and Bridges.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs were considered to have one of the strongest packages for Antetokounmpo earlier this offseason. They kept most of their draft equity when they acquired De’Aaron Fox, and got lucky with the second overall pick in the draft. It felt like they were the frontrunners if they pushed their chips to the table.
Now it may not be quite as attractive. The most significant aspect is their willingness to trade one of Dylan Harper or Stephon Castle. If they’re reluctant to move any of these players, then they’ll have to rely on their draft assets.
They can trade up to four first-round picks in 2026, 2028, 2030, and 2032. The 2028 and 2030 ones can be swapped with Boston and the greater of Dallas and Minnesota, respectively. This gives these selections some level of variability. The 2026 one can be swapped with the Hawks, but it may not convey since they’re looking like a playoff team.
The Spurs are well below the first apron, so they can use the 125 percent expanded trade exception to acquire Antetokounmpo. This would mean they’re only required to send out $43.1 million to acquire his $54.1 million salary. They can cover a significant portion of that amount by including players like Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, and Keldon Johnson.
Then there’s the De’Aaron Fox factor. The Spurs can make up a lot of value and salary matching by including him. However, he now can’t be traded until the week of the trade deadline thanks to his extension. This would put them at a disadvantage in the near term if he’s required to get a deal done. But it’s unclear if the Spurs are remotely interested in moving Fox at all, even if Harper develops faster than expected.
Their picks could go a long way toward making a strong package. But the difference between having an acceptable package and one of the best packages if Antetokounmpo suddenly becomes available is their willingness to include their recent draft picks.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks haven’t been speculated as a serious suitor, but they’ve been a dark horse for Antetokounmpo. They arguably increased their chances the most after their moves this offseason.
Their package would center around Jalen Johnson, who is a similar archetype to Antetokounmpo. They may also need to include one of Dyson Daniels or Zaccharie Risacher to interest the Bucks. Parting with either would be a huge sacrifice to make, but the addition of Nickeil Alexander-Walker would soften that blow. Salary matching won’t be an issue for the Hawks, but acquiring Antetokounmpo right now for such a package would put them slightly into the luxury tax.
They can also trade up to four future first-round picks: two in 2026, and either 2029 and 2031, or 2030 and 2032. While their picks may not look appealing with Antetokounmpo in Atlanta, they have one of the most valuable future first-round picks in the 2026 pick they got from the Pelicans.
That selection is an unprotected first-round pick that is the most favorable of the Pelicans and Bucks. It essentially has two chances of rising in the lottery if both those teams miss the playoffs. This is why many analysts have pegged this selection with a strong chance of jumping into the top four. Reacquiring this selection would allow the Bucks to reap the benefits of missing the playoffs after trading Antetokounmpo.
A package featuring Johnson, one of Daniels or Risacher, and multiple first-round picks, including that 2026 pick, may be a pipe dream return for the Bucks. Many would argue that this is too much value for the Hawks to give up, especially for true Johnson believers. The Hawks would have to believe it’d make them a true title contender for them to move off so much future value.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors remain the only team not to have made a single transaction in free agency. That’s because they remain in a holding pattern as they play out Jonathan Kuminga’s restricted free agency. But that situation may not factor into their chances as much as you’d think. The most consequential aspect of Kuminga’s situation is his potential inclusion in an Antetokounmpo trade.
The Warriors currently aren’t subject to any hard cap. However, they’re expected to sign Al Horford to a two-year deal with the taxpayer mid-level exception. That would hard cap them to the $207.8 million second apron. Third Apron has already detailed why the Warriors want to resolve Kuminga’s free agency before making that and other potential signings official.
But if the Warriors are operating under the second apron hard cap, then Jimmy Butler may need to be involved. That’s because aggregating multiple non-maximum salaries will be challenging and could deplete their depth.
They could aggregate Draymond Green and Kuminga for a 100 percent match. But Base Year Compensation would cut Kuminga’s going amount in half. For example, if he gets a $22 million starting salary, then he’d count as $11 million in outgoing salary from the Warriors’ perspective.
They’d likely need to also include either Buddy Hield and Moses Moody, or one of them with Gary Payton II via sign and trade. This is all just to match Antetokounmpo’s salary while having enough apron space to replenish the roster under the hard cap.
Butler and Antetokounmpo have identical salaries, so that takes care of the salary-matching component. The Warriors could actually take back an additional player from the Bucks or a third team in exchange for Kuminga. Just as long as they have smaller salaries than his, so they don’t trigger the $195.9 million first apron hard cap.
Including Butler would also help with the value for the Bucks. The Warriors can trade up to four first-round picks: 2026, 2028, 2030 (if 1-20), and 2032. That, along with Kuminga and whatever can be extracted from a third team taking on Butler, may not be the strongest package of the ones mentioned so far. But it’s competitive and may be acceptable enough if Antetokounmpo makes the Warriors his desired preference.
Houston Rockets
It feels like the Rockets may have put themselves in a worse position to acquire Antetokounmpo after their busy offseason. The acquisition of Kevin Durant cost them several large salaries that were needed for matching. They’re also right against the $195.9 million first apron hard cap.
However, the Rockets still retain both valuable players and future draft picks after trading for Durant. They can trade up to a maximum of five first-round picks, including two unprotected from the Suns in 2027 and 2029. These picks are considered among the most valuable future traded picks in the league.
The Rockets are indeed a little short on tradeable salaries between now and December 15, when most recent free agents can be traded. That list includes Fred VanVleet, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday, Josh Okogie, and Jae’Sean Tate. Steven Adams also can’t be traded until then since his recent extension exceeded his extend and trade limitations.
Assuming Durant and Amen Thompson are untouchable, that would leave Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, and Tari Eason as the only players on the roster who can currently be traded. All four players would need to be included in a trade to acquire Antetokounmpo now, since it’d leave them with enough apron space to fill the rest of the roster.
Another potential complication is Smith Jr.’s recent extension. He now has a poison pill provision that increases his incoming salary to $22.4 million. So while he counts as his $12.35 million salary from the Rockets’ outgoing end, the Bucks or whichever team acquires him would need to treat him as if they’re acquiring a $22.4 million player.
That actually won’t complicate things as much as it usually would. The easiest way to get around this is to get a third team involved to lessen the Bucks’ total incoming salary. However, they could still acquire Smith Jr. if they wanted to keep it a two-team trade.
The Bucks can take back up to a maximum of $67.9 million in incoming salary in exchange for Antetokounmpo. That’s allowed by the expanded trade exceptions for teams below the first apron, which allows them to take back up to 125 percent + $250,000 for salaries above $33.1 million.
As an example, they could acquire Smith Jr.’s $22.5 million incoming amount, along with Aperen Sengun’s $33.9 million and Reed Sheppard’s $10.6 million. They significantly increase their payroll with this framework, but they aren’t in danger of exceeding the first apron. It would actually get them below the luxury tax line.
As far as the Rockets are concerned, they probably hope Antetokounmpo requests a trade during the season so they could trade a different combination of players. But they wouldn’t get to choose their package if the Antetokounmpo trade market begins and ends before the regular season.
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