Victor Wembanyama's Impact on Roster Construction and Addressing the "Three-Guard Problem"
On Victor Wembanyama's arrival, the three-guard problem, the massive margin of error he brings to allow the Spurs to experiment while competing, his impending max contract, and trade possibilities.
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For decades, NBA front offices sought the tallest players possible who could dominate the game with their size. Most of them were good rebounders and shot blockers, but couldn’t do much with the ball.
Then we had Yao Ming, who was the tallest but was very slow. Yet he countered that by being extremely skilled and efficient. He struggled with injuries throughout his career, but in brief spurts, he looked unstoppable.
Yao played exclusively inside the three-point line and was used primarily as a post-player. Although that role was a product of his time, he thrived in it. He was probably skilled enough to stretch the floor a little and knock down the occasional three.
We are now in the next frontier of that archetype with Victor Wembanyama. He’s playing with the ease of an adult against children on an adjustable hoop at the lowest height, making every dunk and shot. This is game-breaking dominance that, if sustained, could at least result in discourse about potential rule changes.
Wembanyama played at an All-NBA First Team level last year, but now he’s making a case for being the best player in the league. He could be an all-time great who gives his team one of the largest margins for error on and off the court.
The idea is that every so often, a generational player comes who is so good, they negate many of the mistakes of their front office. Luka Doncic pushed some Mavericks teams deeper than the quality of the rest of their roster suggests, including a Conference Finals trip in 2022. They didn’t even have a second All-Star, though Jalen Brunson became one in the second half of that season.
For many of these all-time greats, it may not matter that their teams are low on tradeable first-round picks or have not developed established young players they drafted. These players will thrive with the pieces around them.
Wembanyama seems to confirm this theory, but not because the Spurs made a fatal mistake building this roster. It’s just young and in the early phase of a typical rebuild. It’s rare for a player to be this good this early that a team may need to speed up their timeline.
As of now, the Spurs are 4-0 with a league-best 15.6 net rating, nearly two points higher than the second-best team. They have the third-best defensive rating. A top-six seed in the West is in play for a team that is technically still in a rebuild.
Wembanyama is on track to be a finalist for MVP if not the outright favorite. He just won Player of the Week and is expected to disrupt the MVP race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is currently first or second on most advanced metrics on basketball-reference. These numbers sustaining, along with a top-six seed, will make his case.
He’s also far and away the most impactful defensive player with the numbers to show it. He will likely be the presumptive favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, an award he would’ve won last season if he played in enough games. His 2024-25 season being cut short and eliminating him from award consideration actually may have some contractual ramifications for him.
Wembanyama will be eligible for an extension this summer. He will get a maximum extension worth 25 percent of the salary cap, with escalators so it could reach up to the higher 30 percent max. Players qualify for higher maximum salaries by winning awards like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and making All-NBA teams. The highest contract he could get is currently projected at five years, $303 million.
However, he won’t automatically qualify for it by winning Defensive Player of the Year or making All-NBA. He would’ve also needed to earn one of those achievements in his second season to qualify early. The only way for Wembanyama to qualify early for the 30 percent max is to win MVP this year. Otherwise, he will need to play an additional healthy season in 2026-27 where he at the very least makes an All-NBA team.
Whether it’s 25 percent or 30 percent, Wembanyama will be on a bargain considering he should be earning the 35 percent max. He’ll be making below his true value for the first eight to nine seasons of his career when factoring in the rookie-scale contract he’s currently on. This makes these next two seasons the best window for the Spurs to fortify the roster.
The Spurs have done all the right things since entering a rebuild around five years ago. They drafted players they perceived as the best available and are focused on developing them. They’ve accumulated a surplus of draft picks to bring in more young talent. It took a little longer than it should’ve, but they finally elevated a young head coach in Mitch Johnson, who could grow with this core.
But Wembanyama’s ascent has been so rapid that the Spurs had to consider accelerating things a bit. If they were going to bring in an All-Star, the cost had to be low, and the player would want to be there long-term. They checked off both those boxes in their acquisition of De’Aaron Fox at last season’s trade deadline, who subsequently signed a four-year, $229 million maximum extension with them on August 4.
The early success of the Spurs without Fox has led to discussion about his long-term fit on the team. Neither side would ever confirm it publicly, but it’s possible the Spurs getting the second overall pick in the 2025 lottery may have changed things. It seems unsustainable in the long run that all of Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, and Fox can be rostered.
In all likelihood, the Spurs will alter their backcourt when it’s time for Harper and Castle to get paid. However, this is a good problem they’ll have to deal with at least a year or two from now. But it’s too early to make any decision. They just don’t have enough information on all three guards to know which to stick with.
There’s a potential outcome where Fox reenters the rotation and the team doesn’t noticeably improve. That may not be his fault if that happens. Having Wembanyama on your basketball team raises your floor in the regular season so high that modifying the supporting cast may not make a meaningful difference. That is the massive margin for error Wembanyama brings in action.
Because of this margin of error and the fact that the Spurs are still in data-gathering mode on their young players, it’s unlikely they move Fox right now. It would require a mutual understanding for both sides to separate, considering they just started this union. Even if he’s open to a trade, he can only be traded on February 4 or February 5, this season’s trade deadline.
Maybe Fox doesn’t raise the Spurs’ ceiling in the regular season, and he becomes one of the most trendy players in trade machines. But all that changes in the playoffs. His veteran experience makes him the most viable option among the other guards. He gives them a better chance at advancing in the playoffs.
Expect the Spurs to play out the season with their core intact. Some of these guards might not get as much playing time as they deserve in the process. They will probably all play together at various points, and they will win those minutes at times because they’re paired with Wembanyama. He gives them that much room for experimentation.
But what happens if we reach January and there’s another All-Star on the market who makes the Spurs a preference? It’s not a matter of if a player will want to position himself with Wembanyama, but when. Fox was only the tip of the iceberg.
As mentioned earlier, the Spurs will likely look to conserve their top players. Along with Wembanyama and their guards, that could mean making Devin Vassell and Carter Bryant off-limits. They may even insist on keeping veteran contributors like Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, and Justin Champagnie.
This would mean the Spurs’ top offer at the trade deadline would be draft picks-based. They can still trade up to four first-round picks this season and three first-round pick swaps. Their “max-picks” package would look like this:
2026 pick (unprotected)
2027 swap (most favorable of own/Atlanta)
2028 pick (most favorable of own/Boston, unprotected)
2029 swap
2030 pick (most favorable of own/Dallas/Minnesota, unprotected)
2031 swap (most favorable of own/Sacramento)
2032 pick (unprotected)
First-round picks owned by the Spurs don’t seem appealing on the surface because of their expected success. But the swaps owed by various teams on these selections give these picks a higher degree of variability. This makes them more valuable than the “max picks” offer that the typical contender could offer.
As mentioned earlier, the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons are the best window for the Spurs to make a big move. That’s because they have more flexibility under the first apron and fewer restrictions in transactions. For example, they can take back more salaries than they’re sending out in a trade. That might not be the case once both Fox and Wembanyama are on maximum contracts.
As an example, let’s say Lauri Markkanen becomes available at the trade deadline. He’s off to a monster start and seems like he’s bouncing back from a down 2024-25 season. He would be an excellent frontcourt partner with Wembanyama, whose ability to stretch the floor, shoot from outside, and crash the paint would further stress defenses already lacking solutions.
The Spurs would need to get within 25 percent of Markkanen’s $46.4 million salary to match it. They can get there with Keldon Johnson ($17.5 million), Kelly Olynyk ($13.4 million), and Jeremy Sochan ($7.1 million). From there, it will be all about negotiating the draft equity.
The point is, the Spurs have enough expendable salaries to trade for a maximum-level player this season. They’ll add to this team as long as it doesn’t subtract from their core. The three-guard problem will become a good problem, but that is something they’ll likely address in a future season.
Check out the most recent Third Apron podcast. We recapped the first week of the season and discussed some of the many things that interested us the most.
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As someone who has followed the spurs closely, I highly expect them to follow the “Rockets” and “Thunder” path of last season - play it out with the young guys without making any moves in season. They will want to see what the guys they have and the roster as a whole looks like in the postseason.