Trying to Make Sense of the Bulls Trade Deadline and a Tanking Remedy
On the Bulls trade deadline and the dangers of waiting too long to change directions. Also, thoughts on the Hornets and Wolves, and an interesting lottery reform proposal I stumbled upon.
The Bulls have consistently been the most unpredictable team this decade. This dates back to their acquisition of Nikola Vucevic back in 2021 for Wendell Carter Jr., and two first-round picks. They weren’t a team on anyone’s radar for Vucevic. And that’s largely because they didn’t seem like a team ready to make that sort of consolidation trade.
The Bulls were the busiest team at this year’s trade deadline, having participated in seven trades. That’s more than the total amount of trades the Bulls made in 2021 in their push to construct a playoff team. It’s also more than the total trades they made between the 2021 offseason and before the 2026 trade deadline. Their general activity on the transaction wire is unpredictable, and when they do make moves, they often leave us confused.
For example, the Bulls missed the playoffs in 2023 and 2024. Instead of trading their veterans for draft picks and entering a rebuild, they traded for Josh Giddey and continued to push for the playoffs. They continue to push for the playoffs in 2025 and 2026, but then suddenly pivoted to a rebuild this month.
What changed? And why now, when they’re set to have maximum cap space in the 2026 offseason? Why not make another consolidation trade for one of the best available All-Stars, but at a lower price than they gave up for Vucevic in 2021? This trade deadline was such an anomaly for the Bulls compared to their previous behavior.
The Bulls came into the trade deadline with $13.6 million below the $187.9 million luxury tax line. They were one of the few teams able to take on bad money from other teams with draft picks attached, something they’ve rarely done. So they did by acquiring Dario Saric with two second-round picks.
The picks likely won’t be very valuable (2027 Cavaliers and 2029 Nuggets), but that is still a good piece of business for taking on an expiring $5.4 million salary. In comparison, the Hornets got two middling second-round picks (lesser of BOS/ORL 2027 and ORL 2028) for taking on Tyus Jones’ $7 million salary from the Magic. Also, the Jazz got two second-round picks (Cavaliers 2028 and 2032) for taking on Lonzo Ball’s $10 million salary.
The Bulls had plenty of existing trade exceptions to execute this trade with. They would absorb Saric with the remainder of the trade exception they created last year by trading Zach LaVine. It was about to expire that week anyway, and the Bulls still had plenty of tax space to take on more money. It was a pragmatic trade, but a faint indicator of the direction they were heading in.
Then they traded Kevin Huerter and Saric to the Pistons in a three-team deal with the Wolves that returned them Jaden Ivey and Mike Conley Jr. It was structured in an advantageous way for the Bulls.
Trade 1: Jaden Ivey ($10.1 million) acquired with the $14.1 million mid-level exception
First-tier expanded trade exception: Teams sending out $8,277,000 or less can take back up to twice the outgoing amount plus $250,000.
Trade 2: Dario Saric for Mike Conley
Saric ($5.4 million x 2) + $250,000 = $11.05 million. That covers Conley ($10.8 million).
This allowed them to create a $18 million trade exception for Kevin Huerter since they were trading him for nothing. Along with it, the Bulls acquired a “second-draft” player in Ivey. The Pistons weren’t going to re-sign him, so the Bulls will get a look at him in the second half of the season. These aren’t the best comparisons, but they’ve sort of done this by acquiring Giddey and Isaac Okoro.
Ivey is set to become a restricted free agent this summer. The Bulls should be in a good position to re-sign him, given their ample financial resources, and the fact that they were able to acquire him without sacrificing any positive value. It’s hard to envision his market surpassing the mid-level exception, barring a major breakout.
Then they traded Coby White and Conley to the Hornets for Collin Sexton, Ousmane Dieng, and two second-round picks. They originally got three, but it was reduced to two after an amendment due to White’s ongoing calf injury. They also had more fun with trade exceptions.
Second-tier expanded trade exception: Teams sending out between $8,277,001 to $33,108,000 can take back up to $8,527,000 the outgoing amount.
Trade 1: Mike Conley for Collin Sexton
Conley ($10.8 million) + $8.5 million = $19.3 million. That covers Sexton’s $19 million.
Trade 2: Coby White for Ousmane Dieng
White ($12.9 million) - Dieng ($6.7 million) = $6.2 million trade exception created
White is yet another victim of this season’s devaluing of guards by going for a valuation of three second-round picks. It’s also another case of the Bulls waiting too long to trade one of their veterans. They probably could’ve gotten a first-round pick for him a year earlier.
The Hornets had one of the strongest trade deadlines. White will be so important for them. A starting-level lead guard who will come off the bench for them, but likely start often due to LaMelo Ball’s injury history. He could also play alongside their other guards, so there should lead to some interesting lineup combinations.
And it only cost them two second-round picks, which they made back by taking on Jones. They have one of the league’s biggest surpluses of second-round picks with 15 over the next 7 drafts. They traded a top-55 protected second-round pick to the Celtics for Xavier Tillman, but it’s highly unlikely to convey. They just needed to send the Celtics something to satisfy touch requirements.
White was traded likely because of his impending contract situation. He will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and the Bulls likely needed to pay him more as a free agent than the four years, $87 million he was eligible to extend for. Now that amount is reduced to three years, $52.4 million with the Hornets through June 30. That’s because his six-month trade restriction limits his extension maximum to four years (including the current season), 120 percent of the estimated average salary, and 5 percent raises.
The Hornets didn’t take on any money for 2026-27 in their trades. They are projected to operate over the cap so they could re-sign White and use the $15.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. They’ll have plenty of space to do both, with $44 million in space below the projected $201.7 million luxury tax line.
The big question is what White’s market will look like. There are more teams with cap space projected this summer than last offseason. The Lakers and Clippers already have crowded backcourts. The Hawks could use a guard, but they could also potentially find a long-term answer with their lottery pick. The Hornets will likely need to pay him more as a free agent, but he might not end up getting significantly more than his original max extension with the Bulls.
The Bulls then made a trade that left us with more questions than answers. They traded Vucevic to the Celtics for Anfernee Simons and a second-round pick swap. This move not only saves the Celtics a lot of money and helps them get under the luxury tax, but it also further complicates their backcourt logjam.
It also comes on the heels of Michael Scotto’s report that the Bulls originally asked for a first-round pick from the Celtics to do this trade. That’s quite a departure from the asking price. So why make a trade that seems to benefit the Celtics so much more?
This trade arguably gives the Bulls the most positive value thus far. Simons is a much-needed high-volume shooter who is being severely undervalued around the league because of his contract. The main value will come from a reduced annual salary on his next deal. Also, they swapped that Nuggets 2027 second-round pick they got with Saric for a 2026 second-round pick that will likely come from the Pelicans. It’s currently projected at 33rd overall.
Then, on the morning of the trade deadline, they traded Dosunmu and Julian Phillips to the Timberwolves for Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller, and four second-round picks. They used an expanded trade exception to trade Dosunmu for Dillingham and Miller, creating a $2.2 million trade exception for Phillips.
The Bulls added 8 second-round picks through all their trades. They now have 13 second-round picks over the next 7 drafts, which is the 5th largest surplus in the league. This sounds great now, but this is the result of a mediocre team waiting too long to move its best players. They probably could’ve had a modest surplus of first-round picks had they acted sooner on most of their top players from the 2022 squad.
Dosunmu is exactly the type of player the Wolves needed. He isn’t quite on the same level as Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but he’s a similar player-type who could bring a similar level of impact. This trade may quietly be the most consequential one of the trade deadline in terms of shifting championship odds. The Wolves could make the Finals with Dosunmu.
As Sam Quinn noted in the Third Apron podcast, the Wolves could’ve re-signed Alexander-Walker last offseason if they moved off Conley and Dillingham’s contracts. However, it was too early for them to give up on Dillingham. They took a big swing on Dillingham as they needed upside at guard, but the process ultimately cost them a first-round pick and a swap to acquire him, and now four second-round picksin this trade.
It took a while, but the vision from dumping Conley’s salary is starting to show. They just brought him back on a prorated minimum salary, which was allowed since the Bulls traded him. They have plenty of space below the second apron to claim a potentially waived player. They’re also under the first apron, opening up the ability for them to sign any player who potentially gets waived that had a salary above the mid-level exception, like Khris Middleton.
Now that they’ve moved on from Dillingham and Conley, they have more room to bring back Dosunmu. That will likely be a priority after trading half of their remaining second-round picks for him. He is restricted to the same three-year, $52.4 million extension with the Wolves as White is with the Hornets.
Dosunmu’s next contract was already looking like it has a floor at the $15.1 million mid-level exception, which his current extension can top. For example, if they extend Dosunmu to his maximum extension with a $16.6 million starting salary, they’d have $11 million in space below the 2026-27 projected second apron. They’d already have 11 players rostered, so they’d have more than enough space to fill up their last three roster spots while remaining below the second apron.
The Bulls later addressed their depleted frontcourt by trading Dalen Terry for Guerschon Yabusele. That trade only made sense for them once it was reported that Yabusele would decline his player option as part of the deal. They also swapped Ousmane Dieng for Nick Richards, another center. Richards was absorbed into the remainder of the Coby White trade exception, allowing them to create a new $6.7 million trade exception.
These trade exceptions will be renounced if the Bulls use cap space this summer. The only reason they’d operate over the cap and keep them, and gain access to the mid-level exception, is if they prefer re-signing their own free agents than using cap space to pursue others or taking on more bad money with draft picks. Dillingham is the only player they acquired this month who has guaranteed money for next season.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Bulls go about their rotation for the rest of the season with their comical surplus of guards. Billy Donovan is no stranger to playing small lineups, dating back to his last season with the Thunder, when he often closed with Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It might not result in the best evaluation for these players ahead of free agency, but they all could get a fair amount of playing time.
One might wonder if any of these guards could shake loose and hit the buyout market. It won’t be Dillingham or Tre Jones since they have multiple years left on their contracts. It’s unlikely to be Simons due to his skillset. It probably won’t be Ivey since there is value to his restricted free agency rights for a potential sign-and-trade. Maybe Sexton? But he’s been in less-than-ideal situations for him in Utah and Charlotte. If he never pushed the issue with either of those teams, it seems unlikely he will with Chicago.
The other aspect of their process that’s worse than losing value on their best players is passing on the opportunity to bottom out for a chance at a top prospect in the most recent drafts. There’s a big difference between intentionally rebuilding and getting lottery picks as a result of being bad. It’s good that the Bulls decided it’s time to rebuild, but none of these trades pushed the Bulls closer to the bottom.
The Bulls have been the NBA’s poster child of what they want a non-contender to operate and strive for. They’ve pushed for the Play-In Tournament every year since it’s implementation. But they’ve arguably been burned the most than any team for it. It would make sense if these teams eventually got rewarded for it.
There have been a lot of proposals thrown out on social media last week to solve the NBA’s tanking crisis. Most of them are non-starters. But there’s one I stumbled upon over the weekend on Reddit that I could really get behind. It’s called the Carry-Over Lottery Allocation (COLA) proposed by researchers at La Salle University.
The idea is simple. It reframes the lottery system from “which teams have the worst record last season” to “which teams had the worse records in previous seasons.” Teams that don’t win a top-4 pick in the lottery but continue to struggle get higher lottery odds accrued over time. It eventually rewards the teams that need it the most.
This may be as close to Mike Zarren’s draft wheel as it could get since teams could get an idea of when their odds will max out. Teams could then strategically plan when to bottom out. But if the lottery system eventually addressed each team in need, and pick protections were eliminated, then there might not be such intense races to the bottom.
This system would also attempt to limit the luck for recent lottery winners. For example, the Spurs won three consecutive top-4 picks, which has led to proposals to prevent teams from winning a lottery pick in consecutive years. This system wouldn’t eliminate that possibility completely, but it accounts for recent lottery wins, making it far less likely the Spurs have consecutive lottery wins.
Most importantly, this system would give teams like the Bulls and Kings more reason to continue operating the way they’ve been. The middle 8-10 seed range is considered the worst place for a team to strive for. Why not modify the system so these teams could realistically get a top lottery pick at some point? These teams arguably need it just as much, if not more, than some of the teams currently at the bottom.
You can also see my work on: