2026 NBA Trade Deadline Guide: Part I
This comprehensive NBA trade deadline guide is the ultimate primer for understanding objectives for all 30 teams and over 120 players who could factor into the trade market.
Today is December 15, the unofficial start of the NBA trade season. The likelihood of trades increases because most players who were free agents in the 2025 offseason can now be traded. So Third Apron is releasing its first trade deadline guide detailing player preliminary team objectives and over 125 players who could shape the trade market. Most trades aren’t consummated until the deadline, but we could see a deal or two between now and mid-January.
The NBA also acknowledges December 15 as the start of trade season in the CBA. The 2023 CBA now limits the number of minimum-salaried players that can be aggregated with each other or with non-minimum-salaried players. None of those restrictions will apply between December 15 and the February 5 trade deadline, so that will open up trade possibilities.
We’re kicking off the start of trade season with our first annual trade deadline draft. In this episode, we do a snake draft of players who could be traded ahead of the February 5 trade deadline with different categories to choose from.
As the title of this guide suggests, this will be part 1 of 2. It’s still early, and a lot will change over the next two months. Also, some players cannot be traded until January 15 or later. So there will be a sequel guide released in mid-January with analysis reflecting updates to the trade market and the hierarchy of the best players potentially available.
On a broader note, Third Apron just celebrated it’s one year anniversary. If you aren’t a paid subscriber, now is one of the best times of the year to join. We’ve been consistently posting, but you can expect an uptick between now and the end of free agency with the increase in transactions.
Due to the length of this post, the best way to read this is on Substack, and ideally on a desktop. It’s a much smoother experience that also has navigation links to jump to any team section.
Team navigation links:
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Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are often mentioned as a buyer for some of the best available players, such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis. However, they are still gathering information on the players they have. Although their 15-12 record doesn’t jump out, the progression of Jalen Johnson into an All-Star and potential All-NBA player is a major internal success. But they still need to see more progression from Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher, as well as see how Trae Young fits upon his return.
Financial constraints: $187.9 million luxury tax line. They’re $5.4 million below that threshold and are in position to remain below it while taking on some more incoming salaries.
Players off the table: Jalen Johnson
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher, Dyson Daniels
Game plan: Listen to offers but cautiously upgrade if the opportunity makes sense. Fans of the league are anxious to see the Hawks make a big trade and push for a Finals run, but they probably aren’t. They’re happy to sit tight, especially since they’ve got a potential top 5 pick in the upcoming Draft headed their way.
Notable players
Trae Young ($46 million)
Contract situation: Extension-eligible, can opt out and become a free agent in 2026.
Trade bonus: $394,440
Young’s potential free agency situation makes him a logical trade candidate. The Hawks could trade him for draft assets or rotational help, but there’s probably more value to having him back on a below-maximum contract. They may be better off taking time and letting him play out the market, even if he picks up his $49 million player option. If he’s not going to net them a significant haul of assets, then no need to rush a trade. They don’t need the cap flexibility and could easily find his replacement on the trade market.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Kristaps Porzingis ($30.7 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible.
Porzingis was a low-risk flier who, at his best, is an excellent fit for this team that could really use his shooting and spacing. However, the constant unavailability for both physical injuries and illnesses has been a throughline since his time in Boston. The Hawks could play things out in hopes of extending him at a mid-level type extension, but his large salary could also be used in a deal to pursue a different, more available big man. On the bright side, Onyeka Okongwu has progressed into a really good starting big man. Now that Porzingis is set to be out for at least another two weeks, the Hawks could prefer to trade him for players whom they can rely on.
Trade probability: Very possible
Boston Celtics
The Celtics seem to have a high floor as long as one of the Jays is healthy and head coach Joe Mazulla and his staff continue to find solutions on the margins. They are making people wonder if there’s a path to the Conference Finals in such a weak East. Bottoming out is impossible with this group, but the season is already a success based on their record and developments of future rotation players like Neemias Queta and Jordan Walsh. However, their long-term goals may not align with moves that could help them win now.
Financial constraints: Potentially the $187.9 million luxury tax line. They’re $12.1 million above that threshold and may look to get below it by the trade deadline so they could reset their repeater clock for the next three years.
Off the table: Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Payton Pritchard
Game plan: Get below the luxury tax line and potentially upgrade the roster in the process. The blueprint to this would be trading Anfernee Simons for a starting-level player on a team-friendly contract, but that will likely require trading draft equity. They can trade up to three first-round picks.
Notable players
Derrick White ($28.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029.
Trade bonus: $10,375,540 spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline
The Celtics listened to offers on White and Brown ahead of 2025 free agency, according to Shams Charania. White’s field goal percentage took a hit with a higher usage, but that is temporary while Tatum is out. His recent extension looks like a great value by sustaining a high level of production in all other facets of his game. It will be challenging to retool the core around Tatum and Brown both making the 35 percent max, and White on his high salary. Unless they’re bowled over by a Desmond Bane-esque trade offer, they’ll probably keep him and figure the rest out later.
Trade probability: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Anfernee Simons ($27.7 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible.
Simons has been in trade rumors since the moment he became a Celtic. His acquisition was financially motivated as it allowed them to get out of the remaining three years on Jrue Holiday’s contract. They have four second-round picks to trade, but that might not be enough to offload him. If another team requires first-round draft equity, they might as well try to get a big man on a good contract like Ivica Zubac or Daniel Gafford.
Trade probability: Likely
Sam Hauser ($10 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029.
Hauser has stalled and is having a shooting regression this season. He is expendable and could be moved as part of a deal to get below the tax.
Trade probability: Very possible
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have one of the league’s highest surpluses of future draft picks and would like to grow it. They are in a position to secure high odds ahead of the 2026 draft lottery. They also have several rookies in the G-League that they probably would like to have in their rotation in the second half of the season. They’ll need to trade some of their veterans to accomplish that, as well as to bottom out more and maximize their lottery odds.
Financial constraints: $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Nets currently have $15.3 million in cap space they could use in imbalance trades. They could also use the $8.8 million room mid-level exception and expanded trade exceptions to further increase their payroll. They’re not in danger of exceeding the luxury tax line since they’re $48.3 million below it.
Players off the table: None
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Noah Clowney, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf
Game plan: Maximize lottery odds by trading veterans for future draft equity, players on rookie-scale contracts, and veterans they could later flip for more picks and rookies.
Notable players
Michael Porter Jr. ($38.3 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027.
It appears the Nuggets sold low on Porter Jr., who struggled in the 2025 playoffs with a shoulder injury. The Nets mainly traded Cameron Johnson for a first-round pick, but may have acquired the superior player in the process. They now have the potential to capitalize on Porter Jr.’s career year and flip him to a contender for more value than they got with him. He has another year left on $40.8 million, but an interested team could acquire him with the expectation that he will extend at a more palatable number when he’s extension-eligible next season.
Trade probability: Very possible
Nicolas Claxton ($23.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028.
Claxton is also having a career season and may have increased his trade value with his improved passing and hub ability. The Nets could capitalize on him thanks to what may be a strong market for big men and his declining contract.
Trade probability: Possible but not a necessity
Terance Mann ($15.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027.
The Nets acquired Mann from the Hawks largely because he came with a first-round pick. There may not be an appetite for the remaining two years, $31.5 million on his contract, while shooting a career-low field-goal percentage.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Day’Ron Sharpe and Ziaire Williams ($6.25 million each)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027, can be opted out and become a free agent in 2026.
Trade-eligibility: December 15, 2025.
Both players waived their right to veto a trade this season as part of re-signing with the Nets on contracts that are guaranteed for one season. This makes them more attractive in a trade since they don’t have control over their destination, and they could be re-signed on team-friendly deals with their Non Bird rights.
Trade probability: Very possible
Cam Thomas ($6 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
Trade-eligibility: December 15, 2025.
Trade restriction: Veto rights over any trade
The Thomas era in Brooklyn is all but over after they couldn’t come to terms on a long-term contract agreement over the summer. He would probably like to get traded as soon as possible and can control where he finishes the season. The only thing is that his new team would be limited to re-signing him to a four-year, $22.7 million contract since his Bird rights would revert to Non Bird upon being traded. He’d preserve them if he finishes the season with the Nets, but only if he is signed and traded in the 2026 offseason. His Bird rights don’t have any value in Brooklyn anymore, so he might as well get himself into a situation where he can play regular minutes ahead of free agency. Chances are, the Nets would like to play their younger backcourt players more later in the season.
Trade probability: Likely
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have taken a long-term approach since new ownership took over in 2023. They reset their timeline, focusing on drafting and development despite a long playoff drought. They drafted what seems to be three real rotation players and potentially the Rookie of the Year in Kon Knueppel, but they’re still far from competing. It’s still unclear, aside from him, who will be part of the next great Hornets team, so they’ll naturally listen to offers on their veterans for more draft equity.
Financial constraints: $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Hornets can increase their payroll by up to $14.4 million without exceeding the tax line.
Off the table: Kon Knueppel
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Brandon Miller
Game plan: Try to get positive value for veteran role players. Listen to offers on the biggest names, but don’t entertain anything less than a strong haul for them.
Notable players
LaMelo Ball ($38 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029.
Trade bonus: $2,811,960 spread over the remainder of his contract
Ball’s future in Charlotte is in question after a report from Kelly Iko that he is open to a trade. The Hornets may also be open to a separation based on their long-term goals. In fairness to him, it will probably take a long time for the Hornets to be good enough to be a playoff team. The issue is that he probably won’t garner much interest or net them much of a return in the midst of a down season. He also hasn’t played more than 47 games in a season since 2021-22. He’ll need to play more and better to boost his trade market.
Trade probability: Unlikely but not untouchable
Miles Bridges ($25 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027.
Bridges was re-signed to a declining contract with the idea that he could be flipped for positive value later. That may not happen with his past transgressions and lack of progression. If he’s traded, it might be because his salary was part of a bigger trade than a team acquiring him as a player.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Collin Sexton ($19 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible.
The Hornets acquired Sexton largely because he came with a second-round pick from the Jazz. They’ll entertain offers for him, but he’s been serviceable while Ball has been out. His salary may be too rich for contenders to acquire even as an expiring contract, but he’s also too young and talented to hit the buyout market.
Trade probability: Possible but not a necessity
Josh Green and Grant Williams ($13.6 million each)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027 (Green) and 2028 (Williams).
Both players could be sneaky good additions on playoff teams, but they’ll need to get healthy and suit up first. Their contracts could prevent the Hornets from getting positive value for them.
Trade probability: Not great on those contracts
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls were considered a team that could be aggressive buyers after their surprising 6-1 start to the season. They’ve since gone 4-13, including a 7-game losing streak, which has muddled their objective ahead of the trade deadline. What’s most concerning about this stretch is multiple losses to bottom-tier teams like the Pelicans, Hornets, Nets, and Pacers twice. They may be closer to being a bottom-tier team than a fringe playoff team. Unless they rebound between now and the end of January, they could be looking at being sellers.
Financial constraints: $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Bulls are $13.6 million below that threshold, so they could comfortably increase their payroll in multiple trades.
Players off the table: Matas Buzelis
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Josh Giddey (trade-eligible on January 15)
Game plan: Listen to offers on just about everybody. They could take advantage of a possibly tepid market and buy low on veterans who can push them to the playoffs. They have over $80 million in expiring contracts to match salaries for just about any player. At the very least, reshuffle the roster for better-fitting pieces without dipping into their future draft picks.
Notable players
Nikola Vucevic ($21.5 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible.
Vucevic was heavily involved in trade negotiations during last year’s trade deadline. If they couldn’t extract positive value for him, then while he was having his best season with the team, it’s unlikely they would get any now. He might be more likely to be matching salary in a trade or a buyout candidate if he remains on the roster.
Trade probability: Very possible
Coby White ($12.9 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible.
White is in the final year of one of the biggest bargain contracts of the last few years. The downside to it is that the Bulls cannot extend him since the maximum four-year, $87 million contract he’s eligible for isn’t viable. They can spend over $50 million in cap space and re-sign him after with his relatively low cap hold. However, his name has popped up in trade rumors and reports recently. This suggests that he’s going to command an annual salary this offseason that they’re not comfortable paying. If that’s the case, it makes sense to resolve his future as soon as possible. His strong recent production and low salary this season should make him one of the most sought-after guards. The Bulls could net significant positive value for him.
Trade probability: Very possible
Ayo Dosunmu ($7.5 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible.
Dosunmu is another player the Bulls need to make a decision on ahead of his free agency. Unlike White, the veteran extension maximum he’s eligible for is more than enough for Dosunmu. He could extend right now; the big challenge is finding the middle ground on a contract. His floor may be the full mid-level exception based on the career year he’s currently having. These negotiations shouldn’t have as much separation as White’s. They could entertain offers on him, but also are in a good position to take him to free agency and let him test the market.
Trade probably: Possible, but not a necessity
Cleveland Cavaliers
It might be time for the Cavaliers to hit the panic button if they haven’t already. They’ve gone 3-5 in their last 8 games after a solid 12-6 start to the season. What’s most concerning is that their 2.7 net rating is only good enough for the 10th best in the league. That’s a far cry from the third-best 9.2 net rating they had last year. They’ll need to get their act together over the next six weeks, or they could be having some uncomfortable conversations ahead of the February 5 trade deadline
Financial constraints: None. The Cavaliers are $22 million above the $207.8 million second apron. They’re also $40.7 million above the $187.9 million luxury tax line, resulting in a projected $163.8 million tax penalty.
Players off the table: Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Darius Garland and Jaylon Tyson
Game plan: Make marginal upgrades within their trade limitations. They cannot increase payroll in a trade and aggregate salaries for a more expensive one. They could look to reduce their payroll if they remain in this funk, but they’re unlikely to get out of the tax entirely. That could include offloading minimum-salary players like Thomas Bryant and Larry Nance Jr.
Notable players
Jarrett Allen ($20 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
Allen was thought to be a stopgap option at center after they drafted Mobley. Instead, they doubled down on their two bigs by extending Allen to a three-year, $91 million extension in the 2024 offseason. His field goal percentage is at its lowest rate since his rookie season, and he has already missed a lot of time due to injuries. The Cavaliers were right to invest in size with the way the league is trending, but perhaps not at his upcoming $30 million annual rate. They might be better off trading him for a more cost-effective option at center closer to his current $20 million annual salary.
Trade probability: Possible but not a necessity
DeAndre Hunter and Max Strus ($15.9 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
The Cavaliers were short of wing depth upon putting together their main core three years ago. They worked hard to get Hunter and Strus, and both have played well enough for them.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Lonzo Ball ($10 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027, can be opted out and become a free agent in 2026.
Ball is worth mentioning because the Cavaliers acquired him with the expectation that he’d play well enough to let Ty Jerome go. Jerome has yet to play this year, but the Cavaliers have had to depend on Sam Merrill more while Garland is out. The Cavaliers could look to trade Ball to save money if they remain mediocre, especially with Craig Porter Jr. playing just as well and for more games.
Trade probability: Very possible
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks can finally focus on building the roster around Cooper Flagg now that they’re no longer burdened by the sunk cost of trading Luka Doncic after changing the front office. They’ll probably listen to offers on just about anyone. They’ll be able to comfortably bottom out this year for a top selection in the 2026 draft, but they’ll want to be somewhat decent starting next year since they won’t have control of their draft picks until 2030. They’ll have a challenging trade deadline since they’re unlikely to solve all their problems.
Financial constraints: Potentially the $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Mavericks are $16.9 million above that threshold. They could get below it in two or three trades, but they could be leaving value on the table in the pursuit of maximum savings.
Players off the table: Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington (ineligible to be traded this season)
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Ryan Nembhard
Game plan: Listen to offers on all veterans but be willing to stand pat if the right deals don’t come along. Most of these players have multiple years left on their contracts. Ideally, the Mavericks restock on first and second-round picks, get talented players on rookie-scale contracts who fit with Flagg, and duck the tax. It’ll be hard to get all three, but they need to maximize the return however they can.
Notable players
Anthony Davis ($54.1 million)
Contact situation: Under contract through 2028.
Davis is widely expected to be available ahead of the trade deadline. The big uncertainty is if there will be a strong enough market for the Mavericks to pull the trigger on a deal right now. The remaining two years, $121 million on his contract after this season make him a tough fit and sell for many teams to give up a ton of assets for. He’s been linked to the Pistons, Hawks, and Raptors, according to ESPN, but only the latter kinda makes sense for him in an opportunistic fashion. It’s still early, but the Mavericks will need to hope for forces such as player trade demands around the league and general desperation to drum up the market for him.
Trade probability: Very possible
Kyrie Irving ($36.6 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028.
Trade bonus: $8,035,694 spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline.
The early indications are that the Mavericks don’t want to trade Irving. The reality is that interested teams probably need to see that him healthy and impactful. There’s a strong possibility they move him as they get deeper into their retool, but that will probably come at the earliest in the 2026 offseason.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Klay Thompson ($16.7 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027.
Trade bonus: $3,581,691 spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline.
Thompson has been somewhat of an iron man, barely missing any games in the past four seasons since returning from multiple lower leg injuries. He hasn’t lived up to being the starter the Mavericks hoped for, but he’s embraced being a lower-end rotation player. Unfortunately, he might not have much of a market for that role while making as much as he is. They’ll have a much easier time moving off him when he’s on an expiring contract in the 2026 offseason.
Trade probably: Not great on that contract
Daniel Gafford ($14.4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029.
Gafford can already be traded despite extending in the past offseason, since it didn’t go above his extend-and-trade limits. It’s a solid-value contract that reflects average-to-slightly below average starting center money. The Mavericks should find plenty of suitors willing to give up positive value for him since he could start and come off the bench on his new annual figures.
Trade probably: Very possible
Caleb Martin ($9.6 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Martin has struggled to earn rotation minutes with his on-court play. It seems there’s no market for him unless the Mavericks are taking back an equally or worse contract. Another team could buy low on him if they are optimistic he’ll regain his Heat form, but that may require second-round draft equity from the Mavericks.
Trade probably: Not great on that contract
Naji Marshall ($9 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Trade bonus: $644,704 spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline.
Why the Pelicans let Marshall walk in free agency is confounding. It was very shrewd of the Mavericks not only to sign him but get him at the below mid-level exception salary. He’s been one of their most reliable role players and should have plenty of suitors with the contract he’s on. He can be a sneaky good addition for a playoff contender.
Trade probability: Very possible
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are unlikely to make a major move after making big changes in the offseason. They’re also limited by not having any first-round picks and only one second-round pick to offer in a trade. They are probably stuck with their current group, for better or worse.
Financial constraints: Potentially the $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Nuggets are just $402,059 above the threshold. They could increase their payroll, but they seem more likely to make a small trade that gets them below the tax.
Players off the table: Nikola Jokic
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Christian Braun
Game plan: Sit tight and hope everyone stays healthy. The Nuggets need everyone in their rotation to play their role with little to no avenues to further improve the roster beyond the buyout market.
Notable players
Cameron Johnson ($21.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
The Nuggets acquired Johnson mainly to reduce their payroll. The difference between his salary and Michael Porter Jr.’s opened up enough apron space to complete other moves, like trading Dario Saric for Jonas Valanciunas. It’s been a tough adjustment to a smaller role in Denver, but he’s slowly starting to fit in. The Nuggets are coasting despite injuries to the roster, so it’s hard to imagine a trade out there where they can meaningfully upgrade from Johnson.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Peyton Watson ($4.4 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, will become a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason
Watson has been awesome filling in for Gordon in the past few weeks. He’s worth mentioning because of his contract situation. He and the Nuggets couldn’t agree on a contract extension ahead of the rookie-scale extension deadline in October. Now he could be looking at a contract with a floor at the $14-15 million mid-level exception range. They could look to get some draft picks in a trade for him if they’re afraid of losing him in free agency, since re-signing him could put them above the second apron next season. But they seem more likely to stick with him given their contender status.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Detroit Pistons
Every year, there is a young team exceeding expectations and loaded with assets to make a big trade. Everyone has penciled the Pistons as that team this season, and it’s exciting to think what they’re capable of if they go all-in on an All-Star. But they’ve been so successful with the team as is. There’s a strong case for them continuing with this group now that it’s fully healthy and gathering more information before making any significant changes.
Financial situation: Luxury tax line. The Pistons are $18.9 million below the threshold. They can comfortably increase their payroll in a trade, including acquiring a player with their $14.1 million Dennis Schroder trade exception.
Off the table: Cade Cunningham
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Jalen Duran, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, and Duncan Robinson
Game plan: Don’t make changes to the core but keep an open mind to a low-risk addition. If they can get a player of need without dipping much into their youth or draft picks, look into it.
Notable players
Tobias Harris ($26.6 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
Harris will be one of the most used players in trade machines in hypothetical deals for an All-Star. He’s been a great third or fourth option for the Pistons, who would be a great addition for many contenders on his contract. There could be something out there that makes sense for the Pistons if they want to upgrade over him. They could also play out the season, re-sign him in the offseason, and potentially trade him next season if they take yet another leap.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Caris LeVert ($14.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
LeVert was signed largely as a reaction to losing Dennis Schroder in free agency. He’s been productive for them but is expendable thanks to the emergence of Daniss Jenkins. LeVert’s salary could be utilized as part of a bigger trade.
Trade probably: Possible, but not a necessity
Jaden Ivey ($10.1 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, will become a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason.
Ivey’s return from injury has been rocky, and he will be vying for a higher role and shot selection that the Pistons may never be able to offer. Unless they feel they could re-sign him this summer to a bargain contract, it may be time to move on from him. At the same time, it may not make sense to re-sign him if he’s only guaranteed 15-20 minutes a game. It feels like the Pistons have outgrown Ivey, and that both sides could be ready to move on.
Trade probably: Likely
Ron Holland ($8.7 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Holland is worth mentioning because he’s naturally inserted in hypothetical trades for an All-Star. It’s possible he may not have a long-term fit with the Pistons, who already have plenty of non-shooters, unless he develops a shot. But he still has two years of team control. Even if they are interested in trading him, they might be selling low now. They might as well take advantage of his salary so he can be a valuable role player in their playoff runs and hopefully see his trade value rise in future seasons.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are off to yet another mediocre start to the regular season. They’re in a strange position where their best players raise their ceiling in a playoff run, but don’t seem to have enough depth to win enough regular season games to get into the playoffs. This roster is incomplete, but thankfully, have an obvious trade on the horizon.
Financial constraints: $207.8 million second apron. The Warriors are just $291,409 below the threshold and cannot exceed it. They can aggregate salaries for a more expensive one, but they cannot increase their payroll in the trade.
Off the table: Stephen Curry
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, and Will Richard
Game plan: Acquire the best player possible. The Warriors have made it this far with Curry. The odds are against them winning the Thunder, but as long as they have Curry, they need to maximize the roster around him.
Notable players
Jimmy Butler ($54.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Butler is worth mentioning because the Warriors will naturally be mentioned as suitors for stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis. Constructing a deal for such players will be difficult. They could aggregate Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga, but that would deplete their depth. It’ll be much easier to acquire such a player by including Butler since his salary is equivalent to that of the stars. His trade value would also make it easier to get a deal closer to the finish line if a third team is interested in him and sends assets to the Bucks or Mavericks.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Jonathan Kuminga ($22.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027, but can be opted out and become a free agent in 2026.
Trade bonus: $1,299,569 if traded on the February 5 trade deadline.
Trade-eligibility: January 15, 2026
The Warriors gave it another chance, but the Kuminga era has dragged way past its expiration date. They’ll look to trade him as soon as they can, but how much positive value will he have? They may need to attach a first-round pick or two with him if they want to acquire a rumored target like Trey Murphy.
Trade probably: Likely
Al Horford ($5.7 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Trade bonus: Trade bonus: $328,358 if traded on the February 5 trade deadline.
Horford was brought on ideally to be the Warriors’ answer at starting center. Instead, he’s missed a ton of games with injuries and has struggled when available. He might just be done. This could prompt the Warriors to trade him, potentially along with Kuminga, if they need to aggregate salaries for a more expensive player.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are on a roll despite not having Fred VanVleet available. They have the second-best net rating in the league and perhaps the most well-equipped team to take on the Thunder. They’re in an excellent spot after drafting incredibly well, negotiating good contracts with these players, and making several shrewd trades. They could further push their chips in armed with several valuable first-round picks owed from other teams.
Financial constraints: Potentially the $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Rockets are $6.8 million above that threshold. They could look to get below it, given their proximity to the tax, and to delay their repeater clock.
Off the table: Alperen Sengun, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, and Steven Adams
Game plan: Be hyper-selective on the type of player they’d give up significant draft capital for. They could use an additional body at the backcourt with VanVleet gone, but they need someone who fits their size and toughness ethos. Be prepared to stand pat if none of their targets are attainable; this team should go a long way as is.
Notable players
Fred VanVleet ($25 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2026
VanVleet’s salary would be the gateway for the Rockets to acquire another significant piece in a trade. They’d need to attach draft capital with him not only to get someone, but also for a team to take on VanVleet’s remaining two years, $50 million post-ACL injury. There might not be any guards available that both fit their team and their payroll structure. Unless someone like Derrick White becomes available, there might not be a midseason VanVleet trade that’s worth parting with their valuable draft picks.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Tari Eason ($5.7 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, will become a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason.
Eason is worth mentioning because of his contract situation. He will become a restricted free agent after not coming to terms on a rookie-scale extension with the Rockets. They could entertain offers for him if his contract demands get steep, but he hasn’t progressed or played enough games to increase his value. They’ll probably keep him for the extra depth ahead of their playoff run. If he plays well enough to command a significant contract above the mid-level exception, that will be a good problem to have.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Clint Capela ($6.7 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Capela was brought in as a third-string center to be put on ice in case of emergency. He’s played in all but one game, but just for 11 minutes per game. He could be the cap casualty if they decide to get under the luxury tax. They could consider it if they could get a cheaper alternative in a separate trade or through the buyout market.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Indiana Pacers
Whether they want to acknowledge it or not, the Pacers are in the midst of a gap year. They have one of the four worst records in the league and have struggled even now that the roster is mostly healthy. Another month like this, and it feels like they could be preparing to scale things back and position themselves for high lottery odds. This could make them opportunistic sellers if the right price comes along for certain players.
Financial constraints: $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Pacers are $4.7 million below the threshold. They could increase their payroll in a trade a little.
Off the table: Tyrese Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith (ineligible to be traded this season)
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Andrew Nembhard and Jarace Walker
Game plan: Prepare this team for next season, but save significant upgrades for the offseason. They don’t need to significantly improve the roster now and jeopardize their lottery odds. Moves mainly include considering offers for high-end role players off the bench for draft picks and cap flexibility.
Notable players
Obi Toppin ($14,000,000)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Toppin is currently out with a foot injury that won’t have an update until at least February 1, 2026. He probably won’t get moved if his absence extends beyond that, since the trade deadline is four days later.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
TJ McConnell ($10.2 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
A gap year like this is generally the time for a team to cash in on its reserve role players. They could still get positive value for McConnell, especially since his contract isn’t guaranteed beyond 2026-27. He’ll be 35 years old when they have their next chance to compete for a championship once Haliburton returns. Might as well get positive value and cap flexibility for him. They’ll have plenty of options for a replacement in free agency.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Bennedict Mathurin ($9.2 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, will become a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason.
The possibility of Mathurin having a future in Indiana increased when Myles Turner left in free agency. They now have more cap flexibility to retain Mathurin, and he’s improved in a higher usage role. However, he will likely demand a contract and role that the Pacers might not be able to offer when Haliburton returns to the lineup. Also, they need to address the starting center with their flexibility before investing heavily in a third guard. They could look to acquire a big man by trading Mathurin.
Trade probability: Very possible
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers probably don’t want to move on from any of their top players. Ideally, the team is good and worth building around. They can think and say that now, but that attitude could change as we get closer to the trade deadline. The season and likely this era of the Clippers is over. They have one of the worst outlooks in the league, with no young players with high upside and no control of their draft picks until 2030. They could lose more draft picks if the cap circumvention allegations against them are true. But they’re also just so old. They don’t have an incentive to lose, so they might actually improve by trading their core players for younger players.
Financial constraints: Potentially the $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Clippers are currently $6.7 million above that threshold. They’ll probably look to get beneath it if they don’t turn things around this month.
Off the table: None
Unlikely to entertain offers on: None
Game plan: Blow it up. Listen to offers on everybody, restock on draft picks, and get younger.
Notable players
Kawhi Leonard ($50 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Trade bonus: $8,252,900 spread over the remainder of his contract
Leonard is still playing great and could help several playoff teams. Two big things could hold back a trade. One is his trade value and the overall trade market. Teams won’t give up too much for a 34-year-old with a long injury history. Also, the salary cap circumvention case and the possibility of a long suspension or voiding of his contract add several layers of uncertainty. Teams may be more willing to trade for him in the offseason after the situation is resolved.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
James Harden ($39.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027, but can opt out and become a free agent in 2026.
Trade bonus: $2,263,138 spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline
Harden is still an offensive engine in year 17 of his career. Unfortunately, it’s being wasted on this Clippers team. There should be interest in him leaguewide, but like Leonard, don’t expect a haul for him. Also, his nearly $40 million salary makes him a tricky salary match for logical destinations like the Timberwolves and Rockets. There might not be a big market for him with most teams situated at lead guard.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Ivica Zubac ($18.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Trade bonus: $2,375,940 spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline
Zubac is the player with the most trade value on the Clippers and possibly the only player guaranteed to net them positive value. He’s an incredible defensive center in his prime, and on an awesome contract that many teams would love to have. They could hold onto him, but he could decline by the time they have a contender again. This isn’t hard. Capitalize on him now while his value is at its peak.
Trade probability: Very possible
Derrick Jones Jr. ($10 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Trade bonus: $716,338 spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline
Jones Jr. has lived up to his current contract as both a starter and reserve for the Clippers. They could probably get multiple second-round picks if they trade him. They could use some since they have very few at their disposal.
Trade probability: Very possible
Kris Dunn ($5.4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Dunn could be a sneaky good addition for teams needing a defensive boost on their bench. There will be a market for defensive guards like Jose Alvarado and Keon Ellis, whose small salary is attainable for contenders against the aprons. The Clippers should get in on adding to that market with Dunn.
Trade probability: Very possible
Los Angeles Lakers
It’s become clear that after a second consecutive strong start with a different core, the Lakers will always have a high floor in the regular season under JJ Redick. They are in a group of West teams seeded 2-6 that could all easily have the second-best record in that conference. Unfortunately, the Lakers have the worst net rating of that group, thanks to their below-average defense that is inferior to any West team currently seeded 1-10. The roster needs more defensive personnel, and that will be challenging with their lack of trade assets and draft picks.
Financial constraints: The $195.9 million first apron. The Lakers are just $1.1 million below that threshold and cannot exceed it. Any trade they make will need to be very close in salaries.
Off the table: Luka Doncic
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Austin Reaves
Game plan: Trade expiring salaries like Gabe Vincent and Maxi Kleber with draft equity for the best defensive players they can get, but only if the value is right. They can trade one first-round pick in 2031 or 2032, so they have one bullet to fire. They could also try to get something done with pick swaps in 2026, 2028, 2030, and 2032. They might not sound appealing, but the Cavaliers were able to acquire DeAndre Hunter for two pick swaps last year.
Notable players
LeBron James ($52.6 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
Trade bonus: $1,499,297
James is worth mentioning because of all the speculation since the 2025 free agency that this could be his last year with the Lakers. If he’s really on the way out, then the Lakers would probably be open to trading him, especially if his large salary and trade value can help toward acquiring a future free agent target like Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, James has a no-trade clause. Two teams he was logically linked to, the Cavaliers (apron issues) and the Mavericks (turmoil), aren’t options for him anymore. Maybe he’d sign off on the Warriors this time after they attempted to acquire him two years ago? But that’s a worse situation than contending in the West with Doncic. The lack of viable teams he’d sign off on makes a trade unlikely, but it’s fun to think about.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Rui Hachimura ($10.3 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Hachimura will naturally be included in fake trades where the Lakers acquire an upgrade of any sort. But he’s been great in his role as a fourth or fifth option, shooting over 41 percent from three-point range for a third season in a row. The Lakers should probably keep him and keep their group as deep as possible. On the other hand, he has an expiring contract, and the Lakers are trying to preserve cap space. It will be interesting to see how he factors into their plans.
Trade probably: Possible, but not a necessity
Deandre Ayton ($8.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Ayton has been as serviceable a starting center as the Lakers could hope for for a player earning just $8 million annually. With that said, they could do better if they got a center who could protect the rim. That is easier said than done, as the Lakers will have a hard time coming up with the best package for the best big men ahead of the trade deadline, and they might not prioritize center.
Trade probably: Possible, but not a necessity
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have tried to be competitive but seem unlikely to make noise in a crowded West. They’ve had a lot of injuries, but also their best players have regressed. They could be ready to blow it up in the coming months if they conclude they can’t compete with a core centered on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. They’re already kind of in a rebuild after trading Desmond Bane for multiple first-round picks. They’re also developing several young promising players like Zach Edey, Cedric Coward, and Jaylen Wells.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Grizzlies are currently $16.1 million below that threshold. They can comfortably increase their payroll with multiple trades while remaining below that threshold.
Off the table: None
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Zach Edey, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells
Game plan: Go all-in on the youth movement, but don’t undersell any of the All-Stars. They set a high bar for acquiring their best players with the Bane trade. There is no pressure to trade their best players now if they’re already projected to have two lottery picks in the 2026 draft. Be patient and stick to the price.
Notable players
Ja Morant ($39.4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Morant’s time in Memphis feels like it will end soon. Teams like the Wolves and Kings have reportedly checked in on his availability, but the Grizzlies aren’t entertaining offers. That’s the correct stance to take with his trade value at a low amid the worst season of his career thus far. He needs to get back to All-Star form if another team will want to take on his maximum contract and give up positive assets for him.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($35 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2030
Trade-eligibility: January 13, 2026
Jackson Jr. just renegotiated and extended his contract with the Grizzlies at slightly below his maximum amount in the last four years. He is also struggling this season, which, along with his new contract, may impact his trade value. However, he was likely always going to get a maximum-level deal if he didn’t extend with the Grizzlies and became an unrestricted free agent in 2026. The Grizzlies may not be openly shopping him, but he could probably be attainable if another team meets the Bane price threshold. He’ll need to have a strong January for another team to consider that.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($21.6 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
The Grizzlies took on Caldwell-Pope because the Magic had to get off his contract for Bane. He could be a nice role player for a contender, but he’s unattainable at his annual salary coming off the bench. They’ll have a better chance trading him next season as an expiring contract.
Trade probably: Not great on that contract
Santi Aldama ($18.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Trade-eligibility: January 15, 2026
The Grizzlies re-signed Aldama to a front-loaded, short-term contract in the 2025 offseason. It feels like a lot of money for a reserve, but it declines and has a team option at the end. This could allow the Grizzlies or a new team to restructure his contract to a team-friendlier amount in 2027. He could be a sneaky good addition for a playoff team, and the Grizzlies could get solid value for him.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Ty Jerome ($8.8 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Trade bonus: $9.7 million spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline
The Grizzlies signing Jerome felt more like an opportunity to snag a good rotation player at a low price point. He didn’t fill a need with their logjam at guard. Perhaps they signed him so they could trade him later. Unfortunately, he’s yet to play this season, so he may not have a trade market this year.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Miami Heat
The Heat have cooled off after a hot start, but they found a winning formula for the regular season. They’ve performed better offensively than their overall talent suggests. With that said, they probably aren’t comfortable with their roster. They’re probably hoping to add more star power to the mix after trading away Jimmy Butler last season. They might have enough juice to add multiple players depending on how aggressive they’re willing to be.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Heat are just $1.6 million below that threshold. They’re unlikely to exceed it unless they can acquire a star.
Off the table: Bam Adebayo
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Kel’el Ware
Game plan: Hunt a star at a reasonable bargain. They need to improve the roster if they’re going to contend in the East. They have to be open to trading anyone if they’re serious about getting a star.
Notable players
Tyler Herro ($31 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
The Heat won’t make Herro or any of their other starters available. But they’ll need to move a number of them if they want a star. Herro shouldn’t be untouchable for one. Davion Mitchell’s progression as a lead guard and the potential to acquire another All-Star guard could make Herro expendable. If Antetokounmpo is interested in joining them, and it’ll cost them a package centered on Herro, Ware, and one of their first-round picks, they shouldn’t overthink it.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Andrew Wiggins ($28.2 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027, can opt out and become a free agent in 2026
Wiggins remains a stabilizing presence for the Heat since acquiring him for Jimmy Butler. He’s been mentioned in trade rumors since the offseason, but that’s mostly because the Heat may have wanted to maximize future cap flexibility. That seems less likely after committing to several extensions, and could give another one to Powell. If Wiggins is traded as part of a larger deal for a star, contenders should be trying to snag him.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Norman Powell ($20.5 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Powell has been able to replicate the early shooting success he had with the Clippers last year. He seems like a good bet to stick with the Heat if they overhaul the starting lineup with a big trade. It’ll be much harder to replace what he does than other members of the Heat backcourt.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Terry Rozier ($26.6 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Rozier is currently on leave as he faces sports betting charges. There is uncertainty whether the Heat can trade him. It seems like a good bet that the NBA will allow the Heat to be traded since there is a precedent of players on leave for off-court issues being traded in the past, like the Rockets trading Kevin Porter Jr. to the Thunder in 2023. His large expiring salary will be vital for the Heat potentially acquire a superstar.
Trade probability: Very possible
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are in a tough spot. The window to get a haul for their franchise player may have closed. It’ll be difficult to drum up a market for Giannis Antetokounmpo and trade him within two months. It’s hard to know what to do ahead of the trade deadline since he hasn’t explicitly requested a trade, but the writing is on the wall. It feels like a matter of time before he does. They need to start thinking about a future without him.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Bucks are $13.8 million million below that threshold, so they could increase their payroll with a couple of trades.
Off the table: None
Unlikely to entertain offers on: None
Game plan: Don’t make any more trades to improve the roster to appease Antetokounmpo. Start making moves that will best position the team several years from now. Try to trade current veterans as well and recoup draft equity. Also, bottom out for a high draft pick. This will be their only chance without control of their draft picks until 2031.
Notable players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($54.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
The best thing that could happen to the Bucks is that they negotiate with teams these next few months and ultimately trade Antetokounmpo in the offseason. They’ll probably get more value then since we’ll know what the draft order is, and teams can make more imbalanced trades. The worst thing that could happen is he tells them he’ll leave as a free agent in 2027. They’d lose leverage against a cap space team like the Nets, Lakers, or Clippers if he’s interested in joining them.
Trade possibility: Very possible
Myles Turner ($25.3 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
Trade bonus: $9.6 million spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline
The Bucks will probably listen to offers on Turner if they trade Antetokounmpo. The big question is what kind of return can they expect? There could be a premium on big men with teams needing size to match up against the Thunder, Rockets, and Pistons. They’ll want to extract multiple first-round picks’ worth of value for Turner for the stretching of Damian Lillard’s contract to have been worth it.
Trade possibility: Very possible
Kyle Kuzma ($22.4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
The Bucks’ acquisition of Kuzma felt more financially motivated than a basketball move. His recent struggles preceded his arrival in Milwaukee. The Bucks’ best chance at moving him may be as part of an Antetokounmpo trade.
Trade probably: Not great on that contract
Bobby Portis ($13.4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Portis has been properly paid since re-signing with the Bucks in 2022. They could probably get multiple second-round picks if they put him on the market. If they enter a rebuild, trading him would help them create as much cap flexibility as possible.
Trade possibility: Very possible
Ryan Rollins ($4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Trade-eligibility: January 15, 2026
Rollins’ meteoric rise will make him a finalist for Most Improved Player. Could the Bucks get a good first-round pick for him if they trade him now? That could potentially be on the table when factoring in his team-friendly contract.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are quietly having a strong season that is overlooked by their flaws. It might be time to stop doubting them after two consecutive trips to the Conference Finals. They’ll naturally be on the lookout for upgrades, but it’ll be challenging with no first-round picks available to trade.
Financial constraints: The $207.8 million second apron. The Timberwolves are just $3.6 million below that threshold and won’t want to exceed it.
Off the table: Anthony Edwards
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert
Game plan: Acquire a starting-level point guard, but don’t overhaul the core in the process. They cannot increase payroll in a trade and aggregate salaries for a more expensive one. This makes trading for a star guard unlikely.
Notable players
Naz Reid ($21.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2030
Trade-eligibility: January 15, 2026
The Timberwolves highly value Reid and view him as part of their core after making such a big commitment to him this summer. However, he’s worth mentioning in case they do want to go after an All-Star level guard making over $30 million. They’d need to trade one of their five highest-paid players, and Reid seems like the likeliest option if they go down that route. But the tradeoff is losing their size edge. It just seems like a shakeup that could leave more questions than answers.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Donte DiVincenzo ($12 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
The Wolves’ acquisition of DiVincenzo seemed a little awkward at first since he’s a starting-level player, but Chris Finch has made his insertion into the starting lineup passable by making Anthony Edwards the primary on-ball initiator. They need to keep him since he’s one of their best high-volume shooters. But he’s also one of their best trade options if they’re to get a point guard. For example, they’ve been linked to Coby White. It’s hard to imagine the Wolves acquiring him without trading DiVincenzo.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Rob Dillingham ($6.6 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Dillingham’s inability to find a role in the Wolves’ rotation could pressure the Wolves to trade him. They weren’t expecting him to be a starter immediately when they acquired him, but they were probably hoping he’d be better than this. His trade value in the league may be more as a flier than as someone worth a future first-round pick. His salary could also help toward salary matching for a starting point guard.
Trade possibility: Very possible
Mike Conley Jr. ($10.8 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
It was a nice and long run for Conley’s career, but he might finally be done. He seems like the most likely player to get traded in the Wolves’ quest for another lead guard. If traded to a rebuilding team, he could become a buyout candidate eligible to sign with any team.
Trade possibility: Likely
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans hit two home runs in the draft with Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears. Unfortunately, the process by which they acquired Queen has put them in a position to convey the most valuable draft pick the league ever seen coming. They have the worst record in the league, so they’re not in a position to double down and trade more draft picks to improve. This core is talented, but not a cohesive fit and far from being a playoff contender. Thankfully, they have several talented veterans that many teams will pursue.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Pelicans are just $1.9 million below that threshold.
Off the table: Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears
Unlikely to entertain offers on: None
Game plan: Listen to and accept the best offers on most of their veterans. It couldn’t work under two different head coaches; the odds are this team won’t improve with some marginal improvements.
Notable players
Zion Williamson ($39.4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Williamson is still on the Pelicans despite over a year of reports suggesting his time is running out. The big difference is that they now have his replacement in place. They might not get positive value for him as a player, but they could as a contract. Any team trading for him could give up positive value, so they could gain significant cap flexibility by waiving him in the offseason. That could be a possibility since he’s not meeting the value of his maximum contract, but such a team could re-sign him to a market value contract if they have enough cap space. His tenure may actually be coming to an end when factoring in the Pelicans terrible record.
Trade possibility: Likely
Jordan Poole ($31.8 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
The Poole acquisition didn’t help their on-court product and only muddled their payroll for 2026-27. They’ll listen to offers on him, but they might be stuck with him for the time being.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Dejounte Murray ($30.8 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
There is still no update on when Murray will return from his Achilles injury. The closer we get to the trade deadline, the less likely we’ll see enough of him for a team to have interest.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Trey Murphy ($25 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
Murphy signed an extension that seemed like a great value when it happened, and he’s exceeded it since. He should be one of the league’s most pursued players ahead of the trade deadline. The Warriors, Pistons, Spurs, Hawks, and Trail Blazers are just a few teams that could use him and have enough assets to make an appealing offer. The Pelicans should get a decent haul if they trade him.
Trade possibility: Very possible
Herb Jones ($13.9 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2030
Trade-eligibility: January 14, 2026
Jones is also on a great contract that was recently extended on annual figures that should be a great value. Between now and next season is the ideal time for the Pelicans to cash in on him while he’s still making less than the mid-level exception. He won’t net the Pelicans as much value as Murphy, but he should have a strong market with many overall suitors.
Trade possibility: Very possible
Saddiq Bey ($6.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Of everything the Pelicans did last offseason, acquiring Bey as part of the Poole trade is probably their best non-draft transaction. He bounced back from his ACL injuries, putting up his best numbers since his sophomore season, and has played in all but one game. It’s great to see him back, and he should be a welcome addition on the trade market.
Trade possibility: Very possible
Jose Alvarado ($4.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Alvarado is a low priority in the Pelicans’ crowded backcourt. He will probably be further marginalized upon Murray’s return. They should be able to get multiple second-round picks for him. They might as well do him the favor of sending him to a situation where he can play regular minutes.
Trade possibility: Likely
New York Knicks
It’s business as usual for the Knicks. They are one of the top seeds in the East and have the best net rating in the conference. Of course, there is the Giannis factor looming over them. If they are serious about acquiring him, this trade deadline would be the time to do it. It’ll be much harder to get him next offseason and field a deep bench while remaining below the second apron that such a trade would subject them to. It seems unlikely they’ll trade multiple starters in such a move.
Financial constraints: The $207.8 million second apron. The Knicks are just $148,359 below that threshold and can’t exceed it. They’ll likely decrease payroll in a trade so they could have more flexibility for end-of-roster additions.
Off the table: Jalen Brunson
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges (trade-eligible on February 1), Josh Hart, and Miles McBride
Game plan: Upgrade the bench all across the board. They’ve got seven second-round picks (including the Wizards’ 2026 first-round pick that will become two seconds) to play with. They mainly need a wing, but that’ll be the hardest type of player to get. Don’t be afraid to double down on guards and bigs if those are the best players available.
Notable players
Mitchell Robinson ($13 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Robinson is in the final year of a contract that declined over time. He remains extension-eligible but continues to be held back by injuries. It’ll be tough to figure out a compromise both he and the Knicks could agree to on an extension. They could trade him if they could get a more reliable big man, but that’s easier said than done. They’ll need his rim protection in the playoffs.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Guerschon Yabusele ($5.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027, can opt out and become a free agent in 2026
Yabusele hasn’t been able to thrive in the Knicks’ fast-paced offense. Both he and the Knicks could already be prepared to move on from each other. This could be a move that creates more apron space for subsequent moves.
Trade possibility: Likely
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have already done everything they needed to. The drafting, trades, and draft picks have led to a championship and this 24-2 start. It’s finally starting to dawn on NBA fans that this is a dynasty.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Thunder are just $1 million below that threshold. They won’t exceed it, so they can delay starting their repeater clock.
Off the table: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, Alex Causo, and Ajay Mitchell
Game plan: The Thunder might have constructed the most optimized 15-man roster in NBA history. There’s nothing they need to do, and teams won’t want to trade with them anyway.
Notable players
Ousmane Dieng ($6.7 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
The Thunder could look to trade Dieng since they’re unlikely to bring him back next year. They could trade him with some seconds for another big man, but they could also just use his roster spot to convert Branden Carlson to a standard contract.
Trade possibility: Possible, but not a necessity
Orlando Magic
The Magic have rebounded strongly after a rough start to the season, with Desmond Bane finally adjusting to the team. They might not be the Finals contenders many predicted after their offseason, but they’re at least on pace to meet playoff expectations. The season is still young, and they still have a lot of upside to finish higher in the standings, especially once they’re fully healthy. However, after trading most of their first-round picks for Bane, they might not have many moves to make.
Financial constraints: Potentially the $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Magic are just $5.6 million above that threshold. They’ll likely decrease payroll in a trade so they can get below it and delay their repeater clock.
Off the table: Paolo Banchero
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, and Anthony Black
Game plan: Upgrade the bench in all areas if possible. They rely heavily on their starters and have few players who can reliably contribute now. They have one first-round pick to trade, but of more relevance, nine second-round picks to play with.
Notable players
Jonathan Isaac ($15 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
The Magic are depending less and less on Isaac as the years go on. He’s unlikely to finish out his contract with the Magic, most of which is non-guaranteed, since they’ll need to reduce costs to fit Anthony Black’s presumed next contract. It’s only $8 million guaranteed for next season, but it becomes fully guaranteed if he plays 52 games. He’s on track to do that, having already played in 22. The Magic could look to trade him earlier than later to avoid dealing with those potential guarantees.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Wendell Carter Jr. ($10.9 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
Carter Jr. continues to be a strong option for the Magic at center. They seem content with him, but if they wanted to go further in, they could try to trade their remaining first-round pick for one of the better rim-protecting big men available. Such a deal could include Carter Jr., but his upcoming extension could also allow the Magic to pair him with another starting-level center to split time with.
Trade probably: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Goga Bitadze ($8.3 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Bitadze was off to a strong start to his Magic tenure, including as a starter for much of 2024-25. He hasn’t regained the form he had before a concussion last season, but he’s been a dependable reserve big. Like with Carter Jr., they could do better at center if they really wanted to. He’d be a nice addition to contending teams with his low, descending salary.
Trade probability: Possible but not a necessity
Tyus Jones ($7 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
Jones has steadily declined over the past few years and hasn’t been able to contribute for the Magic. Thankfully, Black has emerged as their primary backup lead guard. Dumping Jones’ contract is their smoothest way to duck the tax.
Trade probability: Likely
Jett Howard ($5.5 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
The Magic declined Howard’s team option for next season after a disappointing start to his career and the acquisition of Bane. However, he has improved a bit since last season. He was thought to be their cap casualty to duck the tax, but with Jones likely taking that role, perhaps Howard could finish the year with the Magic.
Trade probability: Possible but not a necessity
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are stuck in mediocrity as long as Joel Embiid and Paul George continue to miss time and underwhelm on their current contracts. However, they have a much stronger outlook compared to seven months ago. They have a strong foundation to bridge the next era, thanks to Tyrese Maxey’s emergence as a superstar and the selection of VJ Edgecombe. It’ll probably take time until they can retool the core around those two.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Sixers are currently $7 million above that threshold and will likely make trades to get below it, as they’ve done almost every year.
Off the table: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Jared McCain
Game plan: Be patient and wait out the season. There may be an urge to trade future draft equity to turn Embiid or George’s contracts into starters who can better contribute. But they don’t have many picks, and the ones they do are valuable, like the Clippers’ first-round pick in 2028 and swap in 2029.
Notable players
Joel Embiid ($55.2 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
It’s understood that the Sixers are Maxey’s team now. They’d probably consider trades to get off Embiid’s contract without trading assets. But are there teams out there interested in taking a flier on that contract? Probably not. He seems more likely to get traded to a rebuilding team with minor assets in the future or potentially get waived and stretched.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Paul George ($51.7 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Trade bonus: $4,920,720 spread over the remainder of his contract
George is probably a little easier to trade than Embiid since his health issues aren’t as bad, and he has one fewer season left on his contract. A trade could become more realistic starting next season when he only has two years left.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Quentin Grimes ($8.8 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
Trade-eligibility: January 15, 2026
Trade restriction: Veto rights over any trade
Restricted free agency was a crushing reality for Grimes, who had to settle for his qualifying offer. He’s remained a strong contributor in a smaller role that suits him better than when he was the Sixers top option last season. He will have a lot of control over his destiny now that he’s set to be an unrestricted free agent this summer. He also has veto rights over a trade, but accepting one would revert his Bird rights to Non Bird. His new team, unless they have cap space, would be limited to re-signing him to a four-year, $47 million contract. But it wouldn’t hurt to get to a new situation since his floor is likely the full mid-level exception projected at four years, $65 million. His long term outlook with the Sixers changed anyway when they drafted Edgecombe.
Trade probability: Very possible
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8.4 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
Oubre has been a great contributor for the Sixers for most of his tenure and could be useful on a contender. They could get a couple of second-round picks for him in a trade now. Getting off his salary without taking any salary back would also get them under the tax.
Trade probability: Very possible
Andre Drummond ($5 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
Drummond has been serviceable but not a necessity with the Sixers not contending. The question is whether there will be a team interested in trading for him, or if the market would rather wait for him to potentially hit the buyout market.
Trade probability: Very possible
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are one of the league’s biggest surprise teams. They look like a good bet to make the Play-In Tournament despite trading Kevin Durant and getting considerably younger. They play hard and have played above expectations defensively, but they’re also aided by the bottom tier of the West being worse than usual. But even if they believe this group can make a run, they have limited assets to do so.
Financial constraints: Potentially the $187.9 million luxury tax line. They’re just $273,668 above that threshold, so they might as well get below. However, they could also increase their payroll by as much as $6.3 million while staying below the first apron, if an opportunity to significantly improve the team comes.
Off the table: Devin Booker
Unlikely to entertain offers on: None
Game plan: Don’t lose sight of the long view. Make moves that improve their future even if it hurts them now. They’re not competing for a championship anytime soon. Use the strong seasons from their role players as an opportunity to get off their contracts and create cap flexibility.
Notable players
Jalen Green ($33.6 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
The Suns acquired Green with little leverage to take back other players from the Rockets. He’s barely played, so he hasn’t had a chance to improve his trade value. His large salary could be utilized if the Suns want to go after an attainable maximum-level player, like Domantas Sabonis.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Dillon Brooks ($21.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Brooks has lived up to his contract and plays a significant role in the Suns’ success. With that said, they should absolutely listen to offers on him and probably take the best offer. One or two first-round picks will be more beneficial to them than him powering them to the 8 seed.
Trade probability: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Grayson Allen ($16.9 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
Allen has sustained his elite three-point shooting with a much higher usage this season. However, his contract is still a lot for a player who would have a smaller role on most playoff teams.
Trade probability: Not great on that contract
Royce O’Neale ($10.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
O’Neale has also thrived in a larger role for the Suns. His contract is much more manageable than Allen’s, so he could have a solid trade market.
Trade probability: Very possible
Mark Williams ($6.3 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, will be a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason
Williams has been solid for the Suns and seems like a good bet to stay long-term after trading two first-round picks for him. But he’s worth mentioning because of his contract situation. The Suns could also entertain offers for him since he’s one of their best trade chips for an upgrade.
Trade probability: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Nick Richards ($5 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Richards has probably been available for trade since acquiring Williams. He could be moved as part of a salary dump to duck the tax. If he’s going to be a third-string center, he’s better off serving that role with a playoff contender.
Trade probability: Very possible
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers got off to a decent start to the season before injuries derailed them. Things don’t look good for them, but they can still rebound and make the playoffs once they get their point guards back. They’re a team on the rise and armed with all their draft picks to make a big move if they’d like. They might be better off standing pat and seeing what this team could do at full health.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. They’re just $1.5 million below that threshold.
Off the table: Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara (not trade-eligible this season)
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan, and Yang Hansen
Game plan: Keep the powder dry. If anything, try to create future cap flexibility. This would help extend core players like Avdija.
Notable players
Jrue Holiday ($32.4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Holiday has made a positive impact on the Blazers despite league-wide trepidation on their acquisition of him. His value is clearer with the Blazers’ skid since his absence. They’ll probably want to keep him, but he’s worth monitoring if the Blazers don’t improve. If that’s the case, it’d be a good piece of business to get a first-round pick for him after acquiring him for little.
Trade probability: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Jerami Grant ($32 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Grant is playing well for the Blazers after a major down season last year. However, he’s still not meeting the value of the five-year, $160 million contract he signed in 2023. The Blazers should take the opportunity to get off his contract for cap relief if his recent play created a market for him.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
Robert Williams III ($13.3 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Williams has barely been able to stay on the court since becoming a Blazer. It’s really tough to gauge if there’s a market for him or what his next contract could look like. If there isn’t a worthwhile trade involving him, they could try to extend him on a mostly non-guaranteed contract similar to Jonathan Isaac’s. He could also easily be used as salary matching in a big trade.
Trade possibility: Possible, but not a necessity
Matisse Thybulle ($11.6 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
The Blazers brought in Thybulle as part of their vision of a defense-first team. They’ve been able to create that vision with other players in front of him. Like with Williams, injuries have mostly hindered his time as a Blazer, and it’s unclear how they value him moving forward.
Trade possibility: Possible, but not a necessity
Scoot Henderson ($10.8 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Henderson has yet to play a game this season, which is an issue for a player who still has a lot of questions to answer. The further away we get from the 2023 draft, the less likely it is that he’ll live up to being a third overall selection. The pressure will be on him to produce as he’s set to become eligible for a rookie-scale extension this summer. If they do make a big move, upgrading at point guard might be the path. They still have time to see what Henderson could do, but they’ll have a large pool of guards to choose from if they want to trade for one.
Trade possibility: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Sacramento Kings
The Kings were an easy bet to rule out before the season began. They have a lot of individual offensive talent, but they all need the ball and mostly can’t defend. They’ll probably listen to offers on all their veterans if they haven’t already, but they might not get much positive value for any of them. Fortunately, they’re already projected to get a top pick in the 2026 draft, so there isn’t as much pressure to offload them immediately.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Kings are just $3.2 million below that threshold.
Off the table: None
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Keegan Murray and Nique Clifford
Game plan: Trade whichever veterans have positive value now. They probably won’t improve their trade value over time. But also try to create as much cap flexibility as possible. They’re projected to be right at the luxury tax line for 2026-27. They need more space to facilitate salary dumps so they can add more draft picks in the future.
Notable players
Zach LaVine ($47.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
LaVine is a solid player, but he’s nowhere near worth the nearly $50 million salary he’s on. The Kings bringing him in as part of the De’Aaron Fox trade was a shortsighted mistake that wasn’t going to keep them afloat. Now they’re hamstrung with such a high payroll and little trade flexibility since they won’t exceed the tax. They’ll want to get off his contract to create cap flexibility, but they’ll probably need to give up an asset to get a team interested.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
Domantas Sabonis ($42.3 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Sabonis has been a consistently great floor raiser who could fit on many teams. But his high $42.3 million salary is too big for many teams to fit. There could still be teams out there willing to bring him in and give up some positive value, but the return will be underwhelming compared to what they initially gave up to get him.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
DeMar DeRozan ($24.8 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
DeRozan might be the hardest player the Kings have for other teams to integrate into their rotation. That’s due to the combination of his salary, lack of shooting, and the need to have the ball in his hands. He has another year left on his contract, but it’s only guaranteed for $10 million. They might be able to trade him with minor draft equity to a rebuilding team that could waive him and maybe stretch him later to incur a smaller dead cap hit.
Trade probability: Very possible
Malik Monk ($18.8 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Monk is a great role player, but his salary may be a little too rich for most teams to consider. The Kings tried to trade him in the 2025 offseason but couldn’t find a taker with the value of score-first guards plummeting. They might be able to move him, but likely for neutral value and mostly cap flexibility at best. However, they could hold onto him if they’re able to save money by trading other players.
Trade probability: Very possible
Dennis Schroder ($14.1 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2028
Schroder is one of those players appealing enough at his price point to take a flier on, but never good enough to have job security. He could be on the move again after being traded three times in the past 365 days. He should improve in a better situation, and his contract remains on a contract that should get another chance to bite.
Trade probability: Likely
Keon Ellis ($2.3 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible starting on February 9, 2026
Ellis was one of the few good developmental stories from the Kings in the past few years. Unfortunately, he’s been marginalized with organizational pressure to play more established veterans among their backcourt logjam. He will become extension-eligible later this season, but it feels like both sides could be ready to move on. He might be the safest player on the Kings to net them positive value in a trade. His small salary and strong defense make him attainable for most contenders.
Trade probability: Likely
Russell Westbrook ($2.3 million)
Contract situation: Expiring
The Westbrook signing feels like another sign of an organizational imperative to compete. There’s a good chance he won’t finish the year with the Kings with how the season is going. Whether that is via trade or potentially as a free agent if waived remains to be seen.
Trade probability: Very possible
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have established themselves as a legitimate playoff team after sustaining their strong start to the season with a long stretch without Victor Wembanyama. He was both their floor and ceiling raiser in previous seasons, but now they can reliably win games without depending on him each game. De’Aaron Fox positioning himself to get traded to San Antonio shows they’re one of the most attractive destinations for players right now. If another star requests a trade to them, will they acquiesce?
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Spurs are $5.7 million below that threshold, so they could increase their payroll a little.
Off the table: Victor Wembanyama
Unlikely to entertain offers on: De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle
Game plan: Stay the course, but be open to a big swing if the right opportunity comes along. The Fox trade last year made sense because they gave up a few valuable draft picks and no essential players. They’re already exceeding expectations; might as well see how far the group can go as is. But if a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Lauri Markkanen requests to be traded to the Spurs, they’ll need to at least have a meeting about it and have uncomfortable conversations on who they might need to include in a trade.
Notable players
Devin Vassell ($27 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
Vassell isn’t untouchable, but the Spurs would probably want to keep him at all costs. He’s their best and one of their few high-volume shooters. He’s worth mentioning because any team trading for an All-Star will probably ask for Vassell. They could probably figure out a deal while keeping him, but a trade probably makes most sense if they can upgrade him for someone like Trey Murphy.
Trade possibility: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Harrison Barnes ($19 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Barnes continues to be one of the more reliable fifth options on good teams. The Spurs got him for free as a salary dump, along with what could be a valuable Kings first-round pick swap in 2031. He’ll naturally be included in trades as the salary matching for a star, but like with Vassell, the Spurs would probably like to keep one of their best shooters and veteran leaders. They could come up with the salaries without trading either player. But if moved, one lucky contender should try to snag him for cheap as part of a multi-team trade.
Trade possibility: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Keldon Johnson ($17.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Johnson has played well enough for the contract he’s on to at least be a neutral value. That’s a big development both for the Spurs rotation and their chances at trading him. He will be front and center as part of the salary matching in a potential trade for a star.
Trade possibility: Possible, but not a necessity
Kelly Olynyk ($13.5 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible on March 4, 2026
Olynyk is a good third-string center option, but won’t play regularly when the Spurs are fully healthy. They’ll probably keep him around in case Wembanyama gets hurt again, but Olynyk could also be moved if they need to aggregate salaries for a star.
Trade possibility: Possible, but not a necessity
Jeremy Sochan ($7.1 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, will become a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason
Sochan’s time in San Antonio may be coming to an end. The team has outgrown him, and he’s now had two consecutive DNP-CDs with the team finally at full health. He’s unlikely to factor in the Spurs’ plans, especially after drafting Carter Bryant. If they don’t trade him as part of a larger package for a star, they should at least send him to a situation where he can get regular minutes ahead of restricted free agency.
Trade possibility: Likely
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have cooled off after a strong start to the season. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games against strong competition after ending their 9-game winning streak against mostly bottom-tier teams. They’ve improved nonetheless and should still make the playoffs. But the roster has plenty of room for improvement if they’re going to advance past the first round.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Raptors are $772,500 million above that threshold, so they’ll probably get beneath it with a trade.
Off the table: Scottie Barnes
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Brandon Ingram
Game plan: Be open to upgrades at almost all parts of their core at a good price. The Raptors are one of the most pick-neutral teams in the league with ownership of all their own first-round picks. Don’t go all-in on someone, but maybe trade one first-round pick for an upgrade to the starting lineup similar to their Ingram acquisition.
Notable players
Immanuel Quickley ($32.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
Quickley’s contract has become a polarizing one around the league. He was brought in as a younger and cheaper option than Fred VanVleet, but is now earning more than him. Quickley has been solid but not a $32.5 million player. They might be one of the teams worth exploring upgrading him for an All-Star guard like Ja Morant, Trae Young, or LaMelo Ball.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
R.J. Barrett ($27.7 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
The Raptors’ recent slide has coincided with Barrett’s absence from the lineup due to an injury. He is important to their success, but he might have more value to them than any other team in the league. His salary could be useful for matching salaries for a more expensive upgrade, but that’s about it.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
Jakob Poeltl ($19.5 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2030
Trade bonus: $5,554,631 spread over the remainder of his contract if traded on the February 5 trade deadline
Trade-eligibility: January 7, 2026
The Raptors extending Poeltl to his maximum allowable amount with two years left on his current contract felt like one of the most unnecessary moves of the entire offseason. If he’s barely meeting the value of his $19.5 million salary, he probably won’t meet the value of his upcoming $28 million annual salary at age 32. He’d logically be involved in a trade for an All-Star big man like Anthony Davis, but his extension makes such a move more complicated.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
Ochai Agbaji ($6.4 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, will become a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason
The Raptors’ imperative to compete now has led to fewer minutes and lesser roles to Agbaji and their young wings, whom they recently selected in the draft. He’s starting and getting more minutes due to several injuries, but that may be temporary. His time in Toronto could be ending after not getting extended in October. They might not be able to keep him anyway since they have no tax space next season due to their high payroll.
Trade probability: Very possible
Utah Jazz
The Jazz stand slightly above the bottom-tier of teams in the league with their hard play, leaving them within reach of qualifying for the Play-In Tournament. Keyonte George has been a major contributor to their success, as well as Lauri Markkanen reemerging as an All-Star-level player. They could be getting closer to putting a competitive product, but ideally not this year. They’re currently at risk of conveying a valuable first-round pick to the Thunder if they keep this pace up.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Jazz are not in danger of exceeding the luxury tax line since they’re $43.8 million below it.
Off the table: Ace Bailey
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier
Game plan: Continue accumulating draft picks by taking on bad contracts with their trade exceptions. At the same time, they should be trying to add players who can fit into their long-term vision. If there are any players on rookie-scale contracts they view as a good fit, they should be willing to trade draft equity for them.
Notable players
Lauri Markkanen ($46.4 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
It’s hard to tell exactly what the Jazz plan to do with Markkanen. It feels like they would’ve taken a haul similar to what they got for Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell if they were offered one. He’s soon to be 29-years-old, so he still has plenty of prime left to contribute to a potentially good Jazz team if they leap next year. But they may also want to get optimal value for him, which would be understandable if they conclude that he doesn’t fit the timeline of the rest of their core.
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Jusuf Nurkic ($19.4 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Nurkic has been okay filling in for the Jazz at center this season. If traded, it’s likely because he’s being utilized for salary matching as part of a bigger deal. Teams in need of a big man can get more cost-effective options than Nurkic. He may become a buyout candidate instead.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
Walker Kessler ($4.9 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, will become a restricted free agent in the 2026 offseason
Kessler is out for the season with a shoulder injury. That’s an unfortunate development for a player entering restricted free agency. The Jazz project with nearly $50 million in cap space while being able to re-sign him with his low cap hold after. They should be able to get him back at a team-friendly amount, but it might be worth listening to offers on teams in need of a big man.
Trade possibility: Unlikely, but not untouchable
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have the worst record and are on pace to have a historically bad net rating this season. Despite that, they’ve seen much-needed progress from recent draft picks like Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George. The future next competitive Wizards team is starting to shake out. They still have a way to go before they end their rebuild, but thankfully, they have some players to look forward to.
Financial constraints: The $187.9 million luxury tax line. The Jazz are not in danger of exceeding the luxury tax line since they’re $43.8 million below it.
Off the table: Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George
Unlikely to entertain offers on: Tre Johnson and Bilal Coulibaly
Game plan: Continue adding to their draft surplus by acquiring bad contracts with draft picks attached. They project with $80 million in cap space, but they might as well start using their flexibility early by trading expiring contracts for ones with more years.
Notable players
Khris Middleton ($33.3 million) and C.J. McCollum ($30.7 million)
Contract situation: Expiring, extension-eligible
Both Middleton and McCollum were brought in by the Wizards, mainly so the other team could fulfill salary-matching requirements in their respective trades. Both players could be valuable additions to a contender, but more likely through a buyout. The most likely reason they get traded is if the Wizards are taking back bad contracts with multiple years remaining.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
Corey Kispert ($14 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2029
Kispert may be the one veteran on the Wizards who could have a trade market. He was starting to heat up, showing signs of being a viable high-volume shooter before being out with a thumb injury. Do the Wizards want to trade him for the first first-round pick that gets offered to them, or do they want to keep one of their better shooters around?
Trade probability: Possible, but not a necessity
Cam Whitmore ($3 million)
Contract situation: Under contract through 2027
Whitmore is no longer in the Wizards’ rotation as of last week. They brought him in as a low-risk flier, but he was facing an uphill battle for regular minutes with their guards and wings. We’ll see if there are takers for him after his $5.5 million team option for next season got picked up.
Trade probability: Not great with that contract
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