Analyzing the Kawhi Leonard Trade
On the Kawhi Leonard trade, the Raptors' long-term cap situation, where the Clippers go from here, and how they could still make additional significant additions.
The 2026 NBA offseason is well underway, and it hasn’t disappointed. It started with the long-awaited Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, followed by the shocking LaMelo Ball trade. Now we have a third trade involving an All-Star, with Kawhi Leonard heading back to Toronto.
The Raptors are trading Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two first-round picks, a first-round pick swap, and two second-round picks for Leonard. It took some time for the pick details to be reported, but Toronto is sending unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, along with a 2027 pick swap. Two distant first-round picks is a steep price for a 15-year veteran, especially considering Leonard would be entering his 20th season by the time the first pick conveys.
So why did the Raptors give up more value for an older Leonard now than they did in 2019? They paid a rental price for him back then because he would not commit to an extension. It was a one-year risk that paid off, and even if they had not won the championship, they still would have come away relatively unscathed. They were reportedly the only team he was willing to extend with, which kept other teams from making serious offers.
Leonard will receive a six-month trade restriction that limits his maximum allowable extension to three additional years, a 120 percent raise off his $50.3 million salary, and 5 percent annual raises. That restriction is mostly negligible because he is already earning a near-max salary, making him eligible to sign an extension worth up to three years and $123.7 million. He could instead wait until January 6, when he would become eligible for a 140 percent raise and 8 percent annual raises, bringing his maximum extension value to $126.7 million.
No matter which extension Leonard takes, he will be limited to adding only two additional years because of the Over 38 rule. The rule includes mechanisms meant to disincentivize teams from signing a player to a contract exceeding three total years that runs past his age-38 season. It applies to Leonard now because he turned 35 last week.
