The NBA is inching closer to reforming the lottery. According to ESPN, it’s called the “3-2-1 lottery”. It’s a radical change that will fundamentally change the lottery system. It’ll include:
-expanding the lottery to 16 teams
-switching from multiple ping pong ball combinations to drawing a single ball to determine each selection
-drawing selections for all 16 lottery selections as opposed to 4
-flattened odds where teams in the 4-10 range get three lottery balls (8.1% odds)
-a relegation zone where the bottom three teams and 9-10 seeds get two lottery balls (5.4% odds)
-loser of the 7-8 games gets 1 lottery ball each (2.7% odds)
-no consecutive #1 pick winners, no three-year consecutive in the top 5
-no protecting picks 12-15
-expanded disciplinary anti-tanking measures, including the option to reduce lottery odds and draft position
-starts with the 2027 draft and only for three years, so the league can bail on this
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