Rookie-Scale Extensions - Part 2: 2026 Contract Projections

In the twelfth and final part of this series, we preview 10 former first-round picks from the 2023 draft class who become eligible to sign rookie-scale extensions during the 2026 offseason.

Apr 16, 2026

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Third Apron’s contract projection series is nearing its conclusion. Since March, more than 100 players who were extension-eligible or potential free agents have been analyzed. Each received a market evaluation that factored in his team’s cap situation to arrive at a potential outcome.

This entry and the next one focus on players who will become eligible to sign rookie-scale extensions in the 2026 offseason. These are the 2023 first-round picks entering the final season of their respective rookie contracts. They can begin negotiating with their teams once the 2026 Finals end, and they can sign extensions between July 6 and October 19, the day before the start of the 2026-27 regular season.

Unlike veteran extensions, which are limited by a player’s current salary, rookie-scale extensions have fewer restrictions. They can run for up to five years and up to the maximum salary regardless of the player’s current salary. The maximum for players with 0-6 years of service is worth 25 percent of the salary cap, currently projected at five years, $251.2 million.

Players who make an All-NBA team in the fourth year of a rookie-scale contract can receive escalators that raise the contract to 30 percent of the salary cap. That would push the total value to $301.5 million. Victor Wembanyama, the only no-brainer max player in this class, has clearly earned both the maximum extension and escalators this offseason. His analysis ends there.

Unlike veteran extensions, rookie-scale extensions do not trigger a six-month trade restriction. Players who sign them do receive the poison pill provision, though. That complicates trades during the 2026-27 season because their incoming salary for a new team would count as the average of their current salary and the total value of the extension.

Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets)

Amen Thompson showed a lot of potential in his second season as a potential two wya star. After making the All-Defense First Team and establishing an offensive role, he was poised for an even bigger breakout this season with more on-ball responsibility after Fred VanVleet was ruled out for the season with a torn ACL. He did not make the leap his biggest supporters were probably hoping for, but he still had his best season.

Thompson averaged a career-high 18.3 points per game on 13.2 field goal attempts per game. He did so mostly inside the arc, with improved efficiency at the rim and more self-created offense. Since March, he has also been more consistent offensively, averaging 20.7 points per game while shooting 62 percent from two. He also improved his ability to get to the line and raised his free-throw percentage by nearly 10 percent.

The shot still has not come along, though, as he is shooting 21.6 percent from three on just 1.5 attempts per game. It may be that Thompson never becomes the primary full-time on-ball threat some hoped he would be. But that is fine. His secondary role is still highly valuable, and there is reason to believe he will look even better next year with less creation burden. For what it’s worth, his overall efficiency only took a modest hit despite the increased role.

After his second season, there was a real debate over whether Thompson was on track for a max contract. He remains one of the best, if not the best, perimeter defenders in the league. It would be concerning if he tops out at this level offensively, but that seems unlikely. There is reason to believe that with even modest offensive improvement, Thompson would exceed the value of 25 percent of the salary cap.

Despite the shooting limitations, it is hard to argue against a max contract for Thompson. He is not quite at the level of Ben Simmons, who received a max contract on similar production was after his third season, but there are enough parallels to make the comparison useful. His defense may come down slightly if he takes on more offensive responsibility, as has happened with other players in the past. But he should remain above average if that happens.

Whether the Rockets extend him now at the max will come down to their belief in that outcome. Among their young players, he has the most upside and is the only one with clear superstar potential. The hope is that he becomes more like Jimmy Butler, who also couldn’t shoot early in his career before developing into a passable low-volume three-point shooter. That version of Thompson would easily be worth the max.

The real negotiation may come down to escalators for the higher 30 percent max if Thompson makes an All-NBA team next season, or to the presence of a player option. The 25 percent max is currently projected at five years, $251 million. The Rockets have done very well getting sub-max deals done with several recent first-round picks. This one will be their biggest negotiation yet

Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons)

Like his twin, Ausar Thompson is already one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and he may be an even better disruptor given his steal rate. He is nowhere near Amen’s level offensively, though, and does not project to be outside of transition play, cutting, and connective tissue. The rest of his offensive game is still very thin.

Thompson is still due for a lucrative extension this summer. It will not be close to a max contract, and finding the right number is tricky when looking at recent sub-max extensions for defense-minded players. At the top end, there are players like Jalen Suggs and Derrick White earning roughly 18 percent of the salary cap. However, Thompson has not shown the shooting or ball creation to get to that level.

The cleaner comparison may be Dyson Daniels and Christian Braun, who both recently extended with their respective teams for four years and $100 million. As discussed with Cason Wallace in the previous article, the annual rate at roughly 14 percent of the salary cap may be the sweet spot for premier perimeter defenders with offensive limitations. With the salary cap rising, that would translate to roughly four years, $104 million, or $26 million annually.

The bigger question for Thompson is whether he should play out the season and test his market in restricted free agency if he believes that type of offer will still be there. OG Anunoby was on a similar trajectory when he extended with Toronto for four years and $72 million, then made enough offensive progress to outplay that deal. Thompson is unlikely to become the shooter Anunoby is, but the broader point still applies. Even marginal growth as a shooter could make 14 percent of the cap look team-friendly.

Detroit has a big offseason ahead with its young core. Jalen Duren may be back on a maximum or near-max contract. Getting Thompson on a team-friendly deal around that percentage of the cap described above would help maximize Detroit’s window and preserve room to pursue an offensive co-star for Cade Cunningham. That matters even more because it would help offset the lack of shooting in Duren-Thompson lineups.

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