Free Agents and Pending Options - Part 1: Projecting Upcoming Contract Situations

In the fifth part of this series, we preview 10 players across the league who will or could become free agents.

Mar 19, 2026

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Third Apron’s contract projection series is going full steam ahead. Over the past two weeks, more than 40 extension-eligible players were analyzed, each receiving a thorough market evaluation with their team’s cap situation weighed in to arrive at a likely outcome.

The next few weeks shift focus to players who are set to become free agents, or who could become one. Most of these players are heading toward free agency because their options are likely to be declined, or they simply are not extension-eligible based on the structure of their contracts. Most of these players signed one or two-year deals or extended their contracts by just one season.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers)

Readers may have noticed that the extension-eligible player series had a big omission with Austin Reaves. That’s because his four-year, $87 million maximum extension amount is not viable. He’s all but a lock to decline his $14.9 million player option given his performance this season. The Lakers would be able to re-sign him for up to the max with his Bird rights.

Reaves is having a career season, averaging 23.6 points per game on 64.6% true shooting. He garnered All-Star and even All-NBA consideration in the first two months of the season when he averaged 26 points per game on 8.6 free throw attempts per game. In that span, he had games where he carried the Lakers when Luka Doncic missed an extended period of time.

Reaves hasn’t had the usage to repeat the highs of the first part of the season, but he’s clearly back to form after a long absence. The biggest thing he’s done for himself is prove that he can be a great number two on a great team who can often serve as the top scoring option. That is the type of co-star Doncic needs, similar to when he had Kyrie Irving in Dallas.

Reaves has exceeded the value of his player option amount for next season more than any other player with a pending option. As a 6’5” guard who can score and facilitate at a high level, he could be one of the more sought-after free agents in the above mid-level exception and sub-max contract range.

Back in the offseason, Third Apron projected Reaves as a roughly 20% of the salary cap player, which is the current contract Tyler Herro is on with the Heat. To adjust for the salary cap increase, it would be equivalent to the four-year, $150 million extension Mikal Bridges signed with the Knicks last offseason. That would equate to a valuation of roughly five years at $160 million or four years at $120 million.

Reaves has improved his valuation since then. Now he should be earning closer to what players like Irving and James Harden are making, which is roughly 23% of the salary cap. That could equate to roughly $200 million over five years, which is what Desmond Bane’s current contract is worth. It’s not quite the 25% max, but it’s close enough that an interested team could offer him such a deal in an attempt to pry him away from the Lakers.

For example, would a team like the Clippers, Hawks, or Bulls offer Reaves a two or three-year max to make a competitive offer? It would be similar to how the Rockets signed Fred VanVleet away from the Raptors in 2023. It could give the Lakers some pause given their path to maintain cap flexibility over the next few seasons, but it likely wouldn’t be a problem if they capitalize on their cap space plans this summer.

It seems unlikely that such an offer would dissuade the Lakers from matching. The short-term nature of such a deal would make the large cap hits more palatable. It’s also hard to envision the Lakers simply letting Reaves go over money. Everything they’re hoping to accomplish involves Reaves as part of the team build.

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