Restricted Free Agents: 2026 Contract Projections

In the eighth part of this series, we preview 8 players who will become restricted free agents this offseason or potentially get not get tendered a qualifying offer.

Mar 27, 2026

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Third Apron’s contract projection series is roughly halfway done. In the first month, more than 40 extension-eligible players were analyzed, as well as 30 potential free agents. They each received a thorough market evaluation with their team’s cap situation weighed in to arrive at a likely outcome.

The previous two entries focused on players who will or could become unrestricted free agents. This one will focus on players who are set to become restricted free agents. This will feature first-round picks from the 2022 draft class who couldn’t agree on a rookie scale extension last offseason. They will become a restricted free agent if their teams tender them a qualifying offer. Otherwise, they will become unrestricted free agents.

This will also include some former second-round picks and undrafted players. These players can’t currently extend their contracts and still have restricted free agency eligibility. They can only become restricted free agents within their first three years of service. Like former first-round picks, they must be tendered a qualifying offer to become a restricted free agent.

Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons)

Jalen Duren will have the most prominent restricted free agency this summer. He reportedly sought a rookie-scale extension that would exceed $30 million annually. For what it’s worth, Third Apron valued him at a five-year, $135 million projection following last season’s elimination by the Knicks. He had a strong postseason debut, averaging 11.8 points per game and 10.7 rebounds per game.

In a league where players are incentivized to extend as soon as they can, Duren made a huge bet on himself by not settling. That bet has paid off with the All-Star season he’s having. He’ll be in the running for an All-NBA team, but that’s now more of a possibility given multiple injuries to elite players.

Duren has evolved into one of the most explosive athletic big men and an elite above-the-rim finisher with great chemistry with Cade Cunningham. He went from an inconsistent defender over his first few seasons to a good rim protector and deterrent, helping anchor a top-tier defense. He’s also a strong rebounder, including being the fourth-best offensive rebounder in the league this season.

Duren is making a strong push ahead of contract negotiations with his recent play. Since coming back from his two-game suspension, he’s averaging 23.3 points per game, 11.1 rebounds per game on 65.7% shooting from the field. Whatever his floor is could increase if he keeps this up in the postseason and the Pistons have a deep playoff run.

There are some weaknesses. Duren can’t shoot or help space the floor on offense. This often results in him not finishing games or playing less than 30 minutes in favor of Isaiah Stewart, depending on the situation. He’s been a good second option for the Pistons this season, but he’ll probably need to expand his offensive profile to become a great one on a great team.

Duren will probably push for a maximum contract this summer. He’d be in stronger consideration for it if he could shoot and stretch the floor, like max-level big men such as Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama. Bam Adebayo is the recent exception of a big man who isn’t a star on offense receiving a maximum contract. The Heat gave it to him with the belief he’d evolve into one, and he’s gotten closer to that with his recent play.

The potential for Duren to receive a maximum contract will likely come down to the market. Last month, Third Apron speculated that a team like the Lakers, who need an upgrade at center, could potentially make a significant max-level offer for Duren. The idea is that it might make the Pistons hesitant to match if they don’t feel he’s worth the max and the complications it would add towards extending other players later, such as Ausar Thompson.

Duren will be able to re-sign with the Pistons for up to a maximum of five years, projected at $239 million. That figure would rise to $287 million over five years, or an average of $57.4 million annually, if he makes an All-NBA team. The most another team can offer with their cap space is a maximum of four years, $177.4 million.

Alperen Sengun’s five-year, $185 million contract could be the framework for what a sub-max deal for Duren looks like. It averages 21% of the salary cap and would translate to roughly five years, $195 million ($39 million annually) with the rate the salary cap has risen. This would put Duren’s annual salary in a tier below the true max players but ahead of the class of starting centers set to make roughly $30 million annually.

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