Rookie-Scale Extensions - Part 1: 2026 Contract Projections

In the eleventh part of this series, we preview 9 former first-round picks from the 2023 draft class who become eligible to sign rookie-scale extensions during the 2026 offseason.

Apr 13, 2026

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Third Apron’s contract projection series is nearing its conclusion. Since March, more than 100 players who were extension-eligible or potential free agents have been analyzed. Each received a market evaluation that factored in his team’s cap situation to arrive at a potential outcome.

This entry and the next one focus on players who will become eligible to sign rookie-scale extensions in the 2026 offseason. These are the 2023 first-round picks entering the final season of their respective rookie contracts. They can begin negotiating with their teams as soon as the 2026 Finals end, and they can sign extensions between July 6 and October 19, the day before the start of the 2026-27 regular season.

Unlike veteran extensions that have limitations based on how much a player is earning, rookie-scale extensions have fewer restrictions. They can run for up to five years and up to the maximum salary, regardless of how much a player’s salary is. It is worth 25 percent of the salary cap for players with 0-6 years of service, currently projected at five years, $251.2 million.

Players who make an All-NBA team in the fourth year of a rookie-scale contract can receive escalators that raise the contract to 30 percent of the salary cap. That would push the total value to $301.5 million. Victor Wembanyama, the only “no-brainer max” player, has undoubtedly secured both the maximum extension and escalators this offseason. His analysis ends there.

Unlike veteran extensions, rookie-scale extensions do not trigger six-month trade restrictions. Players who sign them do receive a poison pill provision, though. That complicates trades during the 2026-27 season because their incoming salary for a new team would count as the average of their current salary and the total value of the extension.

Editorial note: The restricted free agent projections post has been updated to include an analysis of Mark Williams. Like with Peyton Watson, he was mistakenly put in the wrong category during the planning process.

Keyonte George (Utah Jazz)

The Jazz’s rebuild hadn’t inspired much confidence through the start of this season. Although they did not have a top selection until the 2025 draft, it started to look like they were going to come away from that rebuild without an All-Star-caliber player.

That changed with Keyonte George’s massive third-year leap. He would’ve earned him Most Improved Player honors had he played in enough games. The fact that the Jazz, a team that aggressively tanked this season, rested him as a third-year player to lose enough games says a lot about his positive impact.

George has emerged from being a good combo guard without a defined role into a legitimate starting point guard. He’s an even better high-level scorer now who can knock down threes at a high volume, heat up for big scoring nights, and barely miss from the free-throw line. He has also developed into a good facilitator, averaging a career-high 6.1 assists per game. He is doing all of that on an above-average 61 percent true shooting mark.

As good as he has been offensively, his defense still leaves a lot to be desired. The Jazz had a 124 defensive rating with him on the court, and teams often target him in mismatches. He will need to become at least passable on that end, or he could hold back the rest of Utah’s defense.

Even with those defensive limitations, George has shown enough offensively to be in play for a maximum contract worth 25 percent of the salary cap. That amount is currently projected at five years, $251 million. The precedent is with offensive-minded guards like De’Aaron Fox and Jamal Murray, both of whom received 25 percent max contracts. Those players have been sporadic All-Stars throughout their careers, and there is no reason to think George cannot get there as well.

$50 million annually may sound rich for a guard with only one great season, but it is worth remembering that this is 25 percent of the salary cap. It’s the most players with 0-6 years of service can receive, but it isn’t the maximum that most players can receive. The maximum of 30 percent of the cap is more representative of that. It prevents players from negotiating contracts between 25 and 30 percent. George’s actual value may be somewhere in between.

Trae Young is also a relevant comparison as a high-level offensive guard who is a major defensive liability. The difference is that Young made All-NBA and qualified for the higher 30 percent maximum. George is not at that level offensively. He may not project as a perennial All-NBA player, but he does not have to be one every year to justify 25 percent.

With that said, a five-year max with no options and light escalators could be the framework. As an example, the Thunder gave Jalen Williams a max contract that would rise to 26 percent if he made All-NBA Third Team, 27 percent for Second Team, and 30 percent if he made First Team this season. A similar structure would make sense here.

The Jazz will be able to fit George into their payroll structure. They already have Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. set to average roughly $50 million per year, which is roughly 28 percent of the cap. They should be able to fit George as a third max-level salary and maintain a manageable payroll with a deep roster over the next few years.

Brice Sensabaugh (Utah Jazz)

Sensabaugh is the other 2023 first-round pick on the Jazz remaining on the roster. He broke out this season as a high-level scorer and catch-and-shoot three-point threat, especially over the past month. He also has the size and versatility to defend multiple positions.

Although Sensabaugh is averaging big numbers over the past month, they are not representative of his role with the Jazz. He has been playing heavy minutes because nearly every starter has been out of the lineup. Next season, he will play fewer minutes, maybe in the 18-to-22-minute range off the bench. Still, it is useful to know he can scale up into a starter’s workload if needed.

Sensabaugh’s versatility and scoring ability should make him one of the better reserve scoring options moving forward. An annual salary at around 11 percent of the cap could make sense. That would be similar to projections given to players like De’Andre Hunter and Keldon Johnson, or slightly above the full mid-level exception beginning in 2027-28.

As good as Sensabaugh has been, there is reason to believe an extension may not get done. The Jazz will be at the luxury tax line in 2027-28 once George’s extension and Walker Kessler’s next contract are factored in. They’ve shown a willingness to pay tax before, but perhaps not just yet. They may need to create some salary relief to keep him.

The draft will also factor in. If the Jazz get a top selection in the upcoming draft, they’ll likely select a wing whose development would cut into Sensabaugh’s role. They could just let him play out next season if his extension demands are too high this summer. His play may have garnered a higher role elsewhere than the Jazz might have in store for him.

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