Free Agents and Pending Options - Part 2: Projecting Upcoming Contract Situations
In the fifth part of this series, we preview 10 players on the Cavaliers, Thunders, Sixers, and Nets who will or could become free agents.
Third Apron’s contract projection series is going full steam ahead. Over the past two weeks, more than 40 extension-eligible players were analyzed, each receiving a thorough market evaluation with their team’s cap situation weighed in to arrive at a likely outcome.
This is the final entry on players who are set to become free agents, or who could become one. Most of these players are heading toward free agency because their options are likely to be declined, or they simply are not extension-eligible based on the structure of their contracts. Most of these players signed one or two-year deals or extended their contracts by just one season.
This article is paywall-free so free users can gain a better understanding of this series.
More from this series: Current Extension Eligible Players Part 1 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 2 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 3 | Current Extension Eligible Players Part 4 | Standout Minimum Players | Free Agents and Pending Options Part 1
James Harden | Isaiah Hartenstein | Lu Dort | Jonathan Kuminga | Quentin Grimes | Kelly Oubre Jr. | Dominick Barlow | Andre Drummond | Day’Ron Sharpe | Ziaire Williams
James Harden (Cleveland Cavaliers)
There’s an alternate timeline where James Harden accepted the three-year, $161 million extension the Nets offered him in 2021. He would finish up that contract this season, earning just under $58 million, while likely still getting to some of his preferred destinations. Instead, he’s bounced from team to team to maximize his earnings each year.
This year is no different after positioning himself on his fourth team in five seasons with the Cavaliers. Harden requested a trade from the Clippers after re-signing with them last offseason on a two-year deal with a player option on the second season. It contained a $13.3 million partial guarantee that allowed the Clippers to maintain maximum cap flexibility for the 2026 offseason by waiving him.
Although Harden agreed to the contract, it became apparent that he wasn’t in the Clippers’ long-term plans. Even if he picked up his player option and they didn’t waive him, they were unlikely to give him a long-term contract later. So he acted early and joined a team that wants him and will likely keep him for a longer period.
Harden cannot extend his current contract. He can either pick up his $42.3 million player option or decline it and become an unrestricted free agent. His salary for next season is only guaranteed for $13.3 million, but he isn’t in danger of getting waived, especially after the Cavaliers gave up Darius Garland to get him.
Both sides can negotiate a new free agent contract starting right after the NBA Finals end. If he declines the option, the Cavaliers will have his Non Bird rights as a result of accepting the trade. He gained veto rights on trades this season because he re-signed with his previous team on a contract that was only guaranteed for the first season.
Despite the Non Bird limitation, the Cavaliers won’t be restricted in re-signing Harden. They can offer him up to 120% of his $39.4 million salary and up to two additional seasons. If he declines it and both sides restructure his contract, it would likely result in Harden reducing his 2026-27 salary and adding a season around his new annual rate.
It’s hard to argue against Harden’s annual salary given his production this season. Age-related regression hasn’t hit him too hard yet, but it could be a consideration that brings down his projected value a bit. Any salary reduction would be more of a concession to the Cavaliers so he can get an additional guaranteed season or two on a new contract.
However, he could be facing a salary reduction anyway if he lacks suitors on the market. Most of the teams with cap space this summer, such as the Lakers, already have their starting backcourt set. Perhaps the Cavaliers can get him back on a two-year deal in the $75 million range. That would help subsidize a new contract for Keon Ellis while keeping Harden locked in through his age-38 season.
Isaiah Hartenstein (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Isaiah Hartenstein continues to be an elite rim protector, a fantastic rebounder, and a monster finisher. He’s also a solid hub on offense who passes well for his size. Injuries have limited him this season, but when he’s played, he’s been incredibly impactful. The Thunder are 32-7 in the games he’s played so far this season, and he ranks eighth in defensive field goal percentage among players who contest at least eight per game.
Hartenstein is in the final year of a three-year, $85.5 million contract the Thunder signed him to with all their cap space in the 2024 offseason. It came in a lot higher than many projected his annual salary to be, given the lack of competitive cap space teams in need of a big man at the time. But they protected themselves by keeping it guaranteed only for two seasons. Now he has a $28.5 million team option that the Thunder will need to decide on.
The Thunder are facing a payroll and luxury tax combination for next season that would exceed half a billion dollars if they run back the roster. They’ll likely finish over the second apron next season and carry a deep luxury tax penalty, but it’s unlikely they’ll let it get this high even if they win the championship this year. There will probably be some changes to the roster. It’s just unclear how they will go about it.
Many are speculating that the Thunder might be forced to part ways with one of Hartenstein or Lu Dort, who also has a team option for next season. That would be their easiest path towards savings, but it seems unlikely the Thunder will simply let either of these players go. As discussed on Third Apron in the past, the Thunder could also trim their bench for their primary savings.
They’ll have a negotiating window after the Finals and before free agency to agree on a restructured deal that replaces the team option with a different salary amount. However, that is easier said than done for Hartenstein. There could be teams in free agency not only looking to pay for his impact as an elite rim protector, but also to hurt the Thunder.
It’s hard to argue against Hartenstein’s current annual salary. It’s the going rate for above-average starting centers, similar to Myles Turner ($27 million annually) and Jarrett Allen ($30 million annually on his upcoming extension). It seems unlikely that the Thunder will be able to negotiate a salary reduction by restructuring a long-term contract for him.
The trend right now is that teams are willing to pay a premium for size and great big men right now. For example, the Lakers, who project with nearly $50 million in cap space, would probably love to have Hartenstein. A team like them or another one in the West could look to sign him to a contract with an even higher annual salary to improve their team and hopefully bring the Thunder down a peg.
The Thunder’s title ceiling would take a significant hit if they lost Hartenstein. It’ll be really hard for them to replace him despite the vast amount of draft picks they have to trade. They would lose a considerable amount of size and their edge in rim protection.
Lu Dort (Oklahoma City Thunder)
The Thunder have another difficuly decision to make with Lu Dort’s $18.2 million team option. Like with Hartenstein, there probably is no viable contract to be signed where Dort takes a discount on his team option amount. In fact, he’d probably be looking at a raise if he hits the open market. The annual salary for defensive-minded starting-level forwards who are good fourth or fifth options on offense has significantly increased over the years.
The floor for Dort will likely be in the low $20 million range, similar to players like Herb Jones and Aaron Nesmith. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities if an interested team offered him an even higher starting salary on a short-term deal to steal him from the Thunder. It would be like how the Thunder got Hartenstein, or when the Pacers gave Bruce Brown two years, $45 million. Both deals had team options on the end for an early out.
There are multiple pathways towards the offseason. The first is if the Thunder decides they want to move on from him for financial purposes. Letting him walk would get them under the second apron for next season and make way for an eventual Cason Wallace extension. Their operational history suggests that they’re more likely to trade him and extract assets.
However, it’s unlikely the Thunder will let him go or trade him at all. Sure, they have an abundance of All-Defense level perimeter depth, all of whom can defend at high levels and shoot the ball. The Thunder may be deep enough at the wing to remain at their current level without him, but losing him would probably still hurt them on the court and in the locker room.
The second apron issue may not matter for the Thunder. Reducing their payroll next year would mostly be about reducing their huge luxury tax penalty. They could do that while still staying over the second apron. The big risk with being over the second apron long enough is that they would have a future draft pick fall to the end of the first round, but they have so many draft picks that it might not matter.
Wallace’s upcoming extension is a complicating factor in Dort’s long-term future; however, this shouldn’t impact Dort in the upcoming season, since Wallace’s extension wouldn’t kick in until the 2027-2028 season. Something may have to give between him and Alex Caruso so the Thunder can fit Wallace’s next contract, but that is a decision for at least a year from now.
If they decide to keep Dort long-term, they could decline his option and give him a raise equal to his market value, plus more years. However, it’s unclear if the Thunder have the appetite to pay him more while juggling a complicated tax situation. The most likely scenario could be to pick up his team option and figure out his future later. They would be able to extend him at any point next season between July 6, 2026, and June 30, 2027.
Jonathan Kuminga (Atlanta Hawks)
After four and a half years with the Warriors, Jonathan Kuminga finally got traded to a team that allows him to play consistent minutes. The big question surrounding him was whether he wasn’t any good at all, or if he was a productive NBA player being held back by an incompatible system. It turns out it was the latter.
Kuminga’s tenure with the Hawks so far is short and mixed, but it’s undoubtedly encouraging. He complements the Hawks’ perimeter-heavy roster, providing a downhill scoring punch and positional versatility. He might not be a starter in this league, but he’s at least shown flashes of a productive rotation player.
Kuminga is in the first year of a two-year, $46.8 million contract he signed with the Warriors last offseason. It contains a $24.3 million team option for 2026-27. According to Jake Fischer, both the Hawks and Kuminga are interested in negotiating a new long-term deal this summer. As with several players mentioned earlier, they could decline his team option and re-sign him for up to four years without any limitations through his Non Bird rights.
It’ll be tough to project Kuminga’s value at this point due to the small sample size with the Hawks and his current reserve role. It seems unlikely he’ll crack the starting lineup after the success they’ve had since inserting C.J. McCollum into it. At this point, any scenario where the Hawks decline his team option could be at a lower annual salary to factor in for his current role.
For example, the Rockets declined Fred VanVleet’s $44.9 million team option for this season and re-signed him on a two-year, $50 million contract with a player option for the second year. The Hawks could offer Kuminga a similar short-term deal at a slightly reduced amount that gives him the potential to earn more sooner if he improves. They could decline his team option anyway and re-sign him at a slightly reduced amount if they get an indication that his market is likely below his current annual salary.
If Kuminga is going to continue playing high minutes off the bench, then he might be better suited to earn 12–13% of the salary cap. That is similar to what Josh Hart is making on his current contract with the Knicks. Hart has exceeded the value of his contract, but he was given this contract to be a premium reserve. This would be a reasonable framework for Kuminga for his role.
Quentin Grimes (Philadelphia 76ers)
Quentin Grimes continues to be a reliable complementary scorer and solid secondary playmaker. Last year, he put up big numbers as the first option on a depleted Sixers team, but he’s thrived this year as a role player off the bench. He’s more likely to play that role or be a good fifth option as a starter in the long run. But it’s good to know he can still elevate his game and handle a bigger role, as shown in his last 12 games as a starter.
Grimes is the other top restricted free agent from last offseason in need of a new contract. Unlike Kuminga, who received a large salary for potential trade purposes, Grimes accepted his $8.7 million qualifying offer. The Sixers may have wanted this outcome because it kept the salary low enough for them to eventually duck the luxury tax at the trade deadline.
As a result of accepting it and finishing the season with the Sixers, Grimes will become an unrestricted free agent this offseason with full Bird rights. They can re-sign him to up to a five-year contract without any limitations. He may be vulnerable to being stolen away from the Sixers in free agency, given his recent play, especially if they continue to straddle the luxury tax line.
Grimes’ restricted free agency likely kept him considerably underpaid this season. He’s arguably worth double his annual salary based on his production, or around 10–12% of the salary cap. Max Strus’s four-year, $62 million contract would be an apt comparison. That would translate to roughly four years, $74 million this offseason, given the salary cap rise since then.
Offers for Grimes could start at the full $15.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which most teams could offer. He could be the first player to receive the full four-year mid-level exception amount since Dante DiVincenzo three years ago. This also gives interested teams the potential to pry him away through a sign-and-trade if they’re looking to beat MLE-level offers.
The Sixers would be able to give him a starting salary in the MLE range while finishing below the luxury tax for next season. However, they would need to make a significant trade, likely involving one of Paul George or Joel Embiid, if they’re going to clear enough money to re-sign their other top free agents. But that’ll be easier said than done since moving off either player would likely cost them draft equity.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (Philadelphia 76ers)
Kelly Oubre Jr. has been an incredible value signing for the Sixers over the past three seasons. He continues to be a reliable rotation-level wing for a Sixers roster with limited options. He’s shooting and scoring at a consistently high level and has held his own playing above his positional size.
Oubre is in the second year of a two-year, $16 million contract he signed with the Sixers in the 2024 offseason. He can’t extend his contract since he only signed a two-year deal as a free agent. He will become an unrestricted free agent with full bird rights this offseason, so they won’t have any limitations in re-signing him.
Both the Sixers and Oubre could look to continue their partnership this offseason after having what feels like the most success he’s had on any other team. However, as mentioned earlier, the Sixers might have to choose between him and Grimes. They would need to significantly reduce the payroll to keep both players. Who they keep may just come down to price point.
Oubre seems slightly underpaid, but not by much. He has a case for earning around 6% of the salary cap, similar to players like Derrick Jones Jr. ($10 million annually) and Naji Marshall ($9 million annually). An interested team could beat the market on him by offering a two-year, slightly below mid-level exception deal, similar to what the Pistons gave Caris LeVert last offseason.
Dominick Barlow (Philadelphia 76ers)
The Sixers won the two-way market by a wide margin with their signings, including Dominick Barlow. He’s emerged as the Sixers’ starting power forward and is averaging career highs across the board. He is a strong offensive rebounder and a great rim finisher, but he’s particularly effective as a versatile perimeter defender and a help defender.
The Sixers rewarded Barlow with a two-year, $6.8 million two-way conversion. It pays him $3.4 million in both seasons, with a team option for 2026-27. He will become an unrestricted free agent with Non Bird rights if the Sixers decline it, allowing them to re-sign him for up to four years with a starting salary up to $4.1 million.
As great as Barlow’s story has been this season, he’s still playing a role that is above his current talent level. The only reason he’s starting is that the Sixers are limited in options for size while abiding by their tax constraints. He’s proven to be a good role player, but he might need to play another year at his current salary to raise his value above his current range.
Andre Drummond (Philadelphia 76ers)
Andre Drummond continues to be a great rebounder and strong finisher in his age-33 season. His role and minutes have varied throughout the past two years, but he’s mostly still been a reliable backup big man. He will be an unrestricted free agent this summer at the conclusion of his two-year, $10 million contract.
Drummond has earned slightly above the veteran minimum over the past four years. His minimum salary for next season is projected at $3.9 million, so the question will be whether there will be a market for him slightly above that. It’s possible with Clint Capela ($7 million annually) and Paul Reed ($5.5 million annually), receiving above the minimum to be a third-string big man.
Day’Ron Sharpe (Brooklyn Nets)
The box score doesn’t show it, but Day’Ron Sharpe made significant improvements this season. He continues to be one of the better offensive rebounders in the league and has elevated to being an elite finisher at the rim. His disruptiveness on defense and his mobility to switch make him an appealing player across the league.
Sharpe signed a two-year, $12.5 million contract with the Nets last offseason with a second-year team option worth $6.25 million. If the Nets decline it, he will become an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights. Like with Grimes, it’s possible he could have received a higher annual salary last offseason if not for his restricted free agency status.
If the Nets decline Sharpe’s team option, he could be looking at a significant raise. His floor could be at least double his current rate, or 7–8% of the salary cap. That would be similar to what Robert Williams ($13.2 million) and Mitchell Robinson ($12.9 million) are making this season. That could translate to something in the four-year, $60 million range this offseason.
Sharpe has been the Nets’ best center this season, so they aren’t going to simply let him go. Most teams in the league will have the $15.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception to offer him. The Nets will either decline his team option and re-sign him to a higher, team-friendly amount, or they’ll pick it up and play out the 2026-27 season. He would not be extension-eligible next season if the option is picked up.
The Nets currently project with just north of $30 million in cap space for the 2026 offseason. Sharpe would have an $11.9 million cap hold counting against their cap space if he becomes a free agent. They could spend a slightly reduced cap space amount, then go over the salary cap to re-sign him without limitations.
If the Nets do restructure Sharpe’s contract, his cap hold won’t be much of a factor for their cap space plans. This would be primarily about locking him in on a team-friendly contract now rather than risk having to pay him more as a 2027 free agent if he makes another leap. They’ve done well in recent years negotiating team-friendly contracts with their veterans and were able to trade for positive value later.
Ziaire Williams (Brooklyn Nets)
Ziaire Williams is also finishing the first year of a two-year, $12.5 million contract he signed with the Nets last offseason. He’s one of the Nets’ better defensive players, though that’ll happen as one of the veterans on a very young team. He’s a solid, versatile wing who has improved and is having the best overall shooting season of his career. For what it’s worth, he’s currently in the midst of one of the best scoring stretches of his career.
Williams should have a decent market if he hits free agency, given he’s one of the few realistically attainable players who profile as a 3-and-D wing. Perhaps there’s a team willing to use a portion of their mid-level exception to give him a slight raise on a short-term deal. He’s made significant improvements as a Net, and it would be interesting to see how that translates to a competitive situation.
Like with most of the Nets’ veterans, the front office would probably like to trade him for positive value at some point. As good as he’s been, he doesn’t have the high-level upside or long-term security for the Nets to extract more than a couple of second-round picks. His playing time and role have fluctuated when the Nets were healthier earlier in the season, which could further diminish his role if the Nets land a top wing in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Like with Sharpe, it seems unlikely the Nets would decline Williams’s team option and let him walk in free agency. That is, unless he requests it and the Nets grant him the favor. The more likely path to a potential separation would be trading him. His next team would inherit his Bird rights and have no limitation on re-signing him as a free agent in the 2027 offseason.
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